Sunday Portfolio - 29th January

2 pts Sunderland (4/6 general), FA Cup Fourth Round, (1PM ITV1 & ITVHD)

There’s plenty at stakes in this Wear/Tees derby but home advantage could be a crucial factor and Martin O’Neil can navigate Sunderland straight to the fifth round of the FA Cup. Since the change from Steve Bruce, the Black Cats have won  won six games out of nine and could be unbeaten in four here had it not been for a dubious penalty decision.

Middlesbrough have won two of their last 13 FA Cup games against Premier League opponents, conceded eight goals is in their last three Championship games and have also scored just once in that time, so the home win is attractive despite being odds on.

2 pts Lazio (13/8 Stan James), Serie A (2PM)

Lazio have the better of head to head record (Chievo have only managed to beat Lazio once - in their first Serie A meeting, back in January 2002) and also have an away record bettered only by Milan and Juventus, so the 13/8 they can win at 9^th placed Chievo looks worth taking.

The visitors have been beaten by both Milan teams but going to the San Sirois one of the toughest tasks in Italian football and this is a lot more realistic.

1 pt Equatorial Guinea (13/5 Skybet), Africa Cup Of Nations, (Eurosport 7PM)

Equatorial Guinea are the lowest ranked team at the African Cup Of Nations but they’ve followed in the footsteps of most hosts by winning both their group games in late style, and the price on offer about them doing the same and sealing top spot against Zambia looks well worth taking.

It’s a bit of a shame that Randy – the star performer against Libya and also the scorer of the opening goal against Senegal, is out, but there’s no shortage of incentive  to go for the three points – a massive cash bonus, a homecrowd, and then the possibility of a better quarter final draw. Zambia are a good side, as shown by their comeback against Libya and also their beating of Senegal, but the hosts get the call.

1 pt Valencia (11/10 general), La Liga (5PM Betfair Live Video)

Valencia have shown that once again they’re the third best team in Spain despite losing some extremely high quality players, and they can make it 5 games won on the road at relegation threatened Racing Santander today. They were held at Osasuna in their last League game but were hugely impressive when beating Levante 3-0 in midweek, and have enough about them to take all three points.

New Zealand v Zimbabwe - 1st & only test preview

In the midst of all the quality action that takes place for 12 hours a day – for those of us who follow cricket through the night and into the day thanks to Australia and England taking on India and Pakistan respectively – it would be easy to forget that a third test match is now starting between New Zealand and Zimbabwe, which is a crucial match for both sides.

The hosts will be buoyed by their fantastic win in Hobart, where an extraordinary spell from Doug Bracewell saw New Zealand gain a 1^st win in Australia since 1985, while the visitors are slowly rebuilding back into the Test fold, having pushed them all the way in Bulawayo before New Zealand scraped through by 34 runs.

New Zealand – tactically, one assumes – are playing Zimbabwe at Napier, where they haven’t won in 10 years, although seven of the 9 tests there have been drawn.  The home side should win but ¼ is far too short and Zimbabwe, for all that victory seems unlikely, have shown some solid form of late, performing respectably in Gisbourne in a 3 day draw.

Regis Chakabva led the way with 84 there, ending a barren run of low scores in 20/20 games for the Mashonaland Eagles, and he was backed up by middle order, which is encouraging to see for any developing test nation. Based on the one recent game, odds of 12/1 are big on him topscoring with the bat, although he’s struggled for consistency before this.

Indeed, in a series with runscorers few and far between Dean Brownlie would have made lots of appeal for an over/under runline but Ladbrokes only have him quoted in the top runscorer market, and 7’s isn’t quite as tempting as one would like.

Daniel Vettori made enough runs (113) in the two tests against Australia to think that he could make a few here, while his warm up knocks suggests some decent form (he has 49 and 41 against Zimbabwe so far). That, along with the fact that he averages 55 at the ground, makes the 5/6 he can make 29 or more runs in the innings worth taking.

A seamer assisted pitch may also be in the offing, which should mean plenty of wickets for the likes of Trent Boult, Time Southee, Chris Martin & Doug Bracewell. The latter, who has recent figures of 2/39, 2/46, 1/44, & 3/89 in tests, is a 4/1 with Skybet to be the top bowler, and those figures look well worth taking, along with the 4/6 that he can outdo Trent Bolt.

Advice

3 pts Doug Bracewell to take more wickets than Trent Boult (4/6 Hills)

1 pt Doug Bracewell to be the top 1^st innings wicket take (4/1 Skybet)

2 pts Daniel Vettori to score 29 or more runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)

Pakistan v England - 2nd Test Preview

They say that all good things must come to an end and England’s first match as the No.1 ranked test nation in the World was a dismal 10 wicket defeat at the hands of Pakistan last week, which once again emphasised their dreadful subcontinent record – with no series wins there against a team other than Bangladesh in a decade, and a poor record against spin.

So what now for the top dogs? Nobody will be surprised to hear that of the 20 England wickets to fall in Dubai, 15 fell to spin, and 10 of those can be claimed by the hotshot Saeed Ajamal, whose remarkable rise throughought the last year or so now sees him with more wickets (93) in his first 18 Tests than Shane Warne and Muttiah Muralitharan at the same stage of their careers.

Was it all down to him through? Even with the several wickets he took throughought the match, a lot of England’s woes can be put down to poor shot selections, which is evident given how Umar Gul reduced the visitors to 4-35 with nothing more than long hops. Maybe that’s harsh given how well he bowled, but the point remains that the result of the test and the series lies inside how England’s batsmen from 1-7 handle themselves.

This wouldn’t be the first time that England have bounced back in good style from a a defeat - Yet after their five previous defeats, England have bounced back to win their next Test four times (all by good margins) while Andy Flower hadn’t had as much time as they’d like when they lost to the West Indies.

Their bowling too is also a more positive aspect. Despite losing the match by 10 wickets, England kept Pakistan to 338 despite them being 114 without loss at one stage, and it was only the late runs of Adnan Akmal that made their total go past 300.

 

Despite struggling for long periods Graeme Swann ended up with four first innings wickets, while he was closely followed by Stuart Broad and James Anderson (left). The latter only got two wickets at the end of the innings but seems a fair bet to take more wickets than Steven Finn, who will be making his tour debut if picked.

The forecast was for a run dominated series but the pitch didn’t seem to be impossible for either bowlers or batsmen in the first test, and while the two tests played here have seen double century scoring draws, the same was true of Dubai’s games, and it’s not hard to see a result being forced. If you can’t concur with that point of view than at least wait until the end of the first day for the reasons given by the excellent Dave Tickner and Ed Hawkins.

It’s also interesting to note that three pacemen have all taken four or more wickets in the first innings of Abu Dhabi tests, which would lead one to take a serious look at Umar Gul’s performance markets.

Such is the strike rate of Umar Gul overall and quicks at the Zayed Stadium that serious consideration was given towards Gul in a match bet with Ajmal, but far more value lies in backing him to be the top first innings wicket taker at 3/1 with Ladbrokes.

England’s batsmen have some serious improving to do ahead of this test but Ian Bell went out to two genuinely great deliveries from Saeed Ajmal In both innings and he can get the better of Kevin Pietersen, who didn’t look happy on the tour, in the first innings.

Misbah Ul Haq’s attrional style saw him make 51 before going in the first innings and it’s not hard to see him doing something similar. There are a wide range of options about him here but Ladbrokes’s 7/1 about him +3 on the 1^st Innings handicap seems more than fair, as he has 77 and 46 to his name here in his two first innings scores.

Advice

1 pt Umar Gul top Pakistan 1st innings wicket taker (3/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Misbah Ul Haq +3 on 1^st innings Batsman handicap (7/1 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Ian Bell to outscore Kevin Pietersen (5/6 Hills)

Australia v India - 4th Test Preview

At the start of this series quite a few imagined that Australia could beat India, although many (me  included) had visions of a tight, close series akin to the last time these two meet.

We arrive in Adelaide with Michael Clarke’s men having won at Melbourne, Sydney and Perth by 122 runs, an Innings and 68 runs, and an Innings and 37 runs – with no match yet to reach the 5 day mark.

This makes it 4 defeats by an innings in their last 5 away matches and they now have to face upto the rampant Aussies without MS Dohni, banned due to a slow over rate in the previous Test, which leaves the capacitance to a man who has scores just 118 runs in 6 innings in Virewender Shewag.

It’s true that this is meant to be he best batting pitch on the tour for India and these stats are backed up by the fact that in their past two Tests there, they have managed a win and a draw, but they look woefully out of form and much more is needed before we can consider siding with them.

Given their large superiority during this series it’s hard to argue with quotes ranging from evens to 11/10, and it’s hard to find any reasons to argue properly with this. Australia’s scores this series read 333, 240, 659, & 369, and against an India side who has made above 300 just once, they are close to maximum bet potential.

Advice

6.5 pts Australia (11/10 Hills) 

Sunday Portfolio - 22nd January

2 pts Ivory Coast/Ivory Coast double result, (4/6 general, 8/11 Paddy Power) African Cup of Nations (4PM Eurosport)

Many people are surely going to have all eyes on Manchester United v Arsenal at 4PM on Sunday, but African football afcionados will have their eyes on the Ivory Coast kicking off their last attempt to win the Nations Cup with their “Golden generation”, kicking off against Sudan.

Herve Renard’s all-star side are hot favourites to win the tournament despite past failures and they should have little trouble dispatching Sudan’s entirely domestic squad. One of the most fascinating aspects of their game too will also be the defence – Third favourites and tournament tips Senegal were beaten entirely on the counter attack by Zambia of all teams yesterday   - but a team that has let in just three goals in their last 5 matches shouldn’t be troubled much by Sudan, despite the fact that their qualifying campaign was rather impressive.

In four of their last 6, the Ivoirians have led at the half time break, so backing the double result maybe the way to go.

2 pts Burkina Faso, (13/8 Paddy Power),  1 pt 2-1 Burkina Faso (10/1 Bet365) African Cup of Nations (7PM Eurosport)

With the Ivory Coast set to take the beating, today’s result for Burkina Faso and Angola is massive and it may be that Paulo Duarte’s side have the slight edge. It’s argued in the team by team preview that they could struggle in the tournament but the European experience of Lyon’s Backary Kone and Auxerre’s Alain Trarore, along with Rennes’ Johathan Itroprope, could see them edge out the Angolans today if able to make the opportunities they have count.

In what could be a fairly scoring game, maybe adding the 2-1 correct score in the “home side’s” favour could prove to be a touch of value. 

Heineken Cup - 21st January 2012

Bath (1/2) v Glasgow (9/4)

Bath are yet to win on English soil but have been decent on the road this year and beat the hosts 26-21 at Firhill last Novemeber. The messages coming from the club are positive in terms of a good showing and they can cover a 7 point handicap.

Advice: 1 pt Glasgow +7 (10/11)

Leinster (1/8) v Montpellier (11)

A handicap of 15 points looks a big ask for Leinster if Montpellier’s best players (the likes of Francois Trinh-Duc, Lucas Amorosino, Fulgence Ouedraogo & Mamuka Gorgodze) turn up, but with home advantage and the prospect of a home quarter final at stake, the home side should have enough to win. Back Leinster by 1-12.

Advice: 1 pt Leinster by 1-12 (2/1 Stan James)

Clermont (1/5) v Ulster (5)

Clermont are currently 38 games unbeaten at home but couldn’t have asked for a much tougher task to win the pool against Ulster, who were incredible against Leicester. The home win should happen according to the markets, but a start of 11 points is really big for the away side on all evidence.

Advice: 3 pts Ulster +12 (10/11 Paddy Power, Boylesports)

Leicester (1/100) v Aironi (33)

Leicester need to score as many tries as possible to and hope the results go their way if they want to make the Challenge Cup, so expect no mercy against Aironi, who have conceded 241 points this season. It’s hard to judge the handicap quite right but a small wager on the hosts beating their opponents by 28 points or more may be the best bet.

Advice: 1 pt Leicester -27 (10/11 Coral)

Castres (2/5) v Scarlets (5/2)

Castres were well beaten when they travelled to Wales but will feel optimistic about turning things around at home – they beat last season's finalists Northampton on their own patch – and while a handicap of 7 points doesn’t look like terrific value, the hosts should be able to win.

Advice: 1 pt Castres to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Ladbrokes)

Northampton (8/15) v Munster (85/40)

Not a lot separates Northampton and Munster so there’s no good reason for the home side to be as short as they are. Munster have been good on the road this season and can make a serious game of things with a 6 point start here in their endeavour for home advantage in the knockout stages.

Advice: 2 pts Munster +6 (10/11 Bet Victor) 

Heineken Cup - 20th January 2012

Connaught (21/5) v Harlequins (1/4)

Harlequins desperately need a win but won’t find things easy in Galway, where Connaught have given some good team a fairly tough time of things. Strong showings against Harlequins in the reverse fixture and then Gloucester here would have one believe that the visitors, while possession enough class to win, are in for a tough night.

Advice: 1 pt Harlequins to win by 1-12 (6/4 Ladbrokes)

Gloucester (9/4) v Toulouse (4/9)

Toulouse have enough about them to win at Gloucester and go through to the quarterfinals. On the road they’ve been incredible impressive, putting away Harlequins and Connaught with real class, and they can either cover a handicap or win by upto and including 12 points. Given that they won by 10 points against Harelequins (who put Gloucester to the sword on the road), the handicap is the call.

Advice: 2 pts Toulouse -5 (4/5 Boylesports) 

Pakistan v England - 1st Test Preview

Stats based punters are likely to have plenty of confidence in the draw for this first test between England and Pakistan in the UAE – Four of the last 5 tests in the UAE have ended in a stalemate and to be fair, the 6/5 about that happening again is fair enough.

Pakistan managed to hold South Africa to a draw here but then showed a result isn’t impossible when beating Sri Lanka by nine wickets at the venue last October. Granted things should be much harder here – Sri Lanka were in a state of disarray and three of their best players fell to truly horrendous shots – but it still shows the slight propensity for a result.

In the series preview I’ve gone for England to win 1 or 2-0 so a draw isn’t a massive hiccup, but I’d want to get a feel for the two teams first before wading in – The new England have yet to tour Asia, where they last won a series in 2000-01, while much of Pakistan’s success has been against teams all ranked far lower than England in the case of South Africa – and value lies elsewhere.

Dubai’s gained a reputation as a runscorers paradise and big individual totals are a common theme there, but the highest total is just 403, which seems to suggest that the difficult seems to be in taking the wickets instead of the actual failure to prevent runs being scored.

Nevertheless, we’re told that it should be a batsman’s wicket, and in that case it makes sense to look towards the big guns in terms of batting. Misbah Ul – Haq’s strong leadership has been a key feature of why the hosts are being considered closely for this and if on top form, the captain is worth a chance to beat Mohamed Hafeez – who averages just 36 in 21 tests – and Younis Khan in a best of three match bet. In any case, he should not be bigger than  the pair.

Ground specialist Azhar Ali scored 732 runs last year and has the most runs of any player at this venue, so could be worth backing to beat Johnathan Trott in a match bet getting 5 runs with Ladbrokes. England’s Trott has made 129 runs on the tour so far so this will be a close one but the handicap start could prove helpful while it would be unwise to underestimate the home side’s batsmen. And last but not least, back Saeed Ajmal to get the better of Abdul Rheman in the first innings wicket taker stakes. Sjeed was outplayed in their last series v Bangladesh but can turn the tables around here.

Advice

2.5 pts Saeed Ajmal to take more wickets than Abdul Rheman in 1^st Innings (10/11 Hills)

1 pt Misabh Ul – Haq to outscore Younis Khan & Mohammed Hafeez (15/8 Paddy Power)

1 pt Azhar Ali +4.5 v Jonathan Trott (5/6 Ladbrokes)  

England v Pakistan - Test Series Preview

In their own words, getting to No.1 is something, and staying there is quite another, so this is no giveaway test for England, who are aiming to cement their no 1 spot in Test cricket when travelling to Pakistan to take them on in a best of 3 test match series.

The first meeting since the 2010 spot-fixing scandal in a series that has previously been riddled with controversy (thinking back to the ball-tampering episode in 2006 which led to the forfeit at The Oval), and this series promises to be no less thrilling.

Dominant series wins against Australia (3-1) and India (4-0), have seen them rise to the number one spot in the test rankings, marking the possible crescendo of a team that has now won eight of their last 9 test series.

During said period, 0 of their 24 wins since December 2009 have been by an innings, while their win loss ratio since 2008 reads 2.77, and just to press the improvement home, their 2011 record reads - P8 W6 D2.

At this point, it’s understandable why England are such strong favourites. However, the crucial factor that puts the word “t” in Test for Andrew Strauss’s men is the venue – Dubai. Geographically this series isn’t in the sub-continent, but the conditions will be just like playing in Asia. The Dubai International stadium has only held two games, but both were very much batsman dominated games which saw massive scores piled up.

Pakistan v South Africa could well be used as a guide to an even match up here, and the scores show the difficulty of taking 20 wickets over a whole game, while also providing a surface for decent runs;

1st Test: Pakistan v South Africa at Dubai (DSC) - Nov 12-16, 2010

South Africa 380 and 318/2d; Pakistan 248 and 343/3

Match drawn

2nd Test: Pakistan v South Africa at Abu Dhabi - Nov 20-24, 2010

South Africa 584/9d and 203/5d; Pakistan 434 and 153/3

Match drawn

So we know that this should be a closely matched series if using South Africa (who an improving England drew with in 2009) as a formline, and one which offers plenty of runs.

And what about the hosts? Pakistani cricket has taken more hits than any nation over the past few years, but they’ve bounced back in admirable style from the acrominous tour which brought about the jail sentences of Salman Butt, Mohammed Asif, and Mohammed Amir, and under the radar, they’ve turned themselves into one of Test cricket’s form sides.

Indeed, with Sri Lanka and India – who will surely lose their No.2 status sooner rather than later – struggling badly, it could be that England are playing Asia’s best side on their own patch. An impressive record in 2011 of P10 W6 D3 L1 reads nicely, although some of the form should be treated with caution.

If one is going to downplay the progress of England over the past year (from a betting perspective) for the contrast on this pitch, then it has to be noted that their 6 wins came against New Zealand (1), West Indies (1), Zimbabwe (1), Sri Lanka (1), and Bangladesh (2). Neither of those sides – barring what now looks like an aberrational result for New Zealand – really match up to Australia, while it’s debateable if they’d do any better against India.

 The main reason for this? Misbah-Ul-Haq. Since taking over the captaincy through a combination of accident and default, he has won six Tests and lost only one, won 13 ODIs out of 14, and won all five of his T20 matches. Over the period of Misbah's captaincy, which began in November 2010, Pakistan have conceded the fewest runs per over (2.92) and taken the most wickets per Test (18.42) than any other team. Impressive, no matter who they’re up against.

Along with several up and comers such as Younis Khan, Azhar Ali, Asad Shafiq, Taufeeq Umar and Mohammad Hafeez, Pakistan are progressing into a side which isn’t short of talent. Pacemen Umar Gul, Aizas Cheema and Sajeed Khan are all backed up by wizzkid Saeed Ajmal.

 Whether this is enough to make them a bet even at 11/4 is called into question against the world’s best side, but England still have a tough task on their hands having not won a single series in the subcontinent except for wins against Bangladesh since their successes in 2000-01 in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

We still like them a lot more than the home side though, so get England 1-0 onside at the 9/2 left with Bet 365, with the series price of 6/5 (best price Stan James) not making as much appeal as dutching with 2-0 at a general 5/1.

Batsmen should come to fore if things get truly attrional, and it’s not hard to see why runs are being predicted with so many top players on both sides.  Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell (above left),  Eoin Morgan and Matt Prior can all make big totals, but despite being hit on the wrist in training, it is Bell who gets the vote.

A known player of spin, Bell scored nearly 1,000 runs last year, making 950 runs in just 11 innings with 5 centuries. If able to replicate that, he should be bang there and the 13/2 that Sportingbet offer about him being top scorer in the series for England is well worth taking, along with the tasty 15/2 about him outscoring all others (from England and Pakistan) in Paddy Power’s top series runscorer market – After all, he’s on the side that are all but odds on favorites, so why not take a price about him beating the others as well.

Come to think of it, Misbah - Ul - Haq isn’t going to be a bad shout in this market either. He’s thrived on the captaincy, has a style suited to these pitches, and also can lay claim to 703 runs in his last 9 matches. 5/1 is also worth taking about him being the best of his own side, with only Mohammed Hafeez and Younis Khan ahead of him in the betting.

If anyone’s going to star with the ball, it looks set to be Saeed Ajmal, who took 18 wickets when Sri Lanka toured. Much will depend on how many overs he gets ahead of Umar Gul, who has a superior strike rate and only took 4 less wickets despite bowling 114 overs in the three matches compared to the 203.5, but it was the same case in the West Indies and he took 9 wickets against Bangladesh too, losing out only to Abdur Rehman. With condtions set to suit, he looks worth adding to the porfilio.

For much the same reasons, England’s Graeme Swann (left) gets the vote to be England’s top wicket taker throughought the series. He already has 5 wickets on the tour and is the world’s best spinner, so the general 2/1 is worth a poke for a bowler who averages 24 wickets at 30 apiece. Some will say he hasn’t quite produced his very best form over the last year but he gets his pitches now.

Advice

2 pts 1-0 England (9/2 Bet365)

2 pts 2-0 England (5/1 general)

England

1 pt Ian Bell to be top England runscorer (13/2 Sportingbet)

1 pt Grame Swann to be top England wicket - taker (11/5 Sportingbet)

Pakistan

1 pt Misbah Ul Haq to be top Pakistan runscorer (5/1 general)

1 pt Saeeed Ajamal to be top Pakistan wicket -taker (11/5 Stan James)

Other

2 pts each/way Ian Bell & Misbah – Ul – Haq to be top series runscorer (both 15/2, Paddy Power)

Heineken Cup - 14th January 2012

Montpellier (8/11) v Bath (11/8)

Neither team can qualify for the latter stages which makes this a dead rubber of sorts.  With home advantage, the French side make marginal appeal to sneak it by 1-12 points, and turnover a 3 point defeat they suffered in England.

Advice: 1 pt Montpellier to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)

Scarlets (10/11) v Northampton (6/5)

Northampton had their four-and-a-half year unbeaten home European run when ended by Scarlets but huge mistakes contributed to that defeat – it was one of their worst performance of the season – and they look good value to bounce back here following a morale-boosting win over Aviva Premiership table-toppers Harlequins last time.

Advice: 3 pts Northampton (6/5 Sportingbet)

Clermont (1/20) v Aironi (10)

With just three points separating Clermont, Ulster and the Leicester Tigers in Pool 4, it’s business time for Clermont against Aironi tonight and they should get their bonus point win. The main vetting question is whether they’d be able to cover the handicap, and the answer to that may yes if they make a fast start.

Advice: 1 pt Clermont -17 (4/5 Coral)

London Irish (4/3) v Cardiff (5/6)

This should be a very well contested affair – both teams have called up their strongest sides for the game – and points are likely to be on the board all over the place. The last lcash between the two was 24-18, so maybe 39-50 points to be scored is a good bet at 7/4.

Advice: 1 pt Between 39-50 points (7/4 Betfred)

Munster (1/16) v Castres (18)

Munster needed a drop-goal from Ronan O'Gara at the death to edge past Castres in the away leg but should find things much easier here. Castres now have nothing to play for but pride, while Munster coach Tony McGahan has retained the same team that delivered the bonus-point over Treviso win last weekend.

Advice: 4 pts Munster -8.5 on second half h’cap (10/11 Betfred), 1 pt Munster to score 17 or more points in second half (4/5 Hills)

Toulouse (1/66) v Connacht (25)

Toulouse got shocked by Harlequins last time out in Europe but Luke McAlister missed three easy penalties in the first 20 minutes and Vincent Clerc had a try ruled out for a forward pass – not forgetting the fact that Quins have been one of the most impressive teams this season – they’ve lost just two games. It shouldn’t be hard for Toulouse to get back into the swing of things here against a Connaught side yet to get a win in this sphere.

Advice: 2 pts Toulouse -14 on Second half handicap (10/11 Hills)

Harlequins (2/7) v Gloucester (7/2)

Harlequins beat Gloucester by 21 points the last time the two met and should be too good once again here on home soil. The home side to give up 5 points in the second half is easier than 9 overall or nearly 30 points throughought the match, and that might be the best way to go.

Advice: 2 pts Harlequins -5 on second half handicap (10/11 Betfred)

Heineken Cup - 13th January 2012

Ospreys (1/4) v Treviso (11)

Ospreys are looking for a bonus point win and will be looking to get it against Treviso, who have never made it out of the pool stages. A strong home side and bench should be able to get one over a side that got turned over by Aironi just last week.

Advice: 1 pt Ospreys -16 (4/5 Boylesports)

Racing Metro (2/5) V Edinburgh (5/2)

The last meeting between these two was an unforgettable 48-47 win for Edinburgh at Murrayfield. The chances of the same happening again look slim but these two sides love to attack and plenty of fun should be had.

Advice: 1 pt over 45 points (11/10 Bet365)

Ulster (4/6) v Leicester (6/4)

A massive matchup but a big vote of confidence for the home side, who have gained a bonus point win in 4 of their last 6 matches and have been beaten only by Leinster in Dublin, having played a weakened side.  Leicester will miss Toby Flood and Manu Tuilangi pretty badly, while playing away hasn’t been their strongest point this season.

Advice: 4 pts Ulster -1 (4/5 Blue Sq)