In their own words, getting to No.1 is something, and
staying there is quite another, so this is no giveaway test for England, who
are aiming to cement their no 1 spot in Test cricket when travelling to
Pakistan to take them on in a best of 3 test match series.
The first meeting since the 2010 spot-fixing scandal in a series
that has previously been riddled with controversy (thinking back to the ball-tampering
episode in 2006 which led to the forfeit at The Oval), and this series promises
to be no less thrilling.
Dominant series wins against Australia (3-1) and India
(4-0), have seen them rise to the number one spot in the test rankings, marking
the possible crescendo of a team that has now won eight of their last 9 test
series.
During said period, 0 of their 24 wins since December 2009
have been by an innings, while their win loss ratio since 2008 reads 2.77, and
just to press the improvement home, their 2011 record reads - P8 W6 D2.
At this point, it’s understandable why England are such
strong favourites. However, the crucial factor that puts the word “t” in Test
for Andrew Strauss’s men is the venue – Dubai. Geographically this series isn’t
in the sub-continent, but the conditions will be just like playing in Asia. The
Dubai International stadium has only held two games, but both were very much
batsman dominated games which saw massive scores piled up.
Pakistan v South Africa could well be used as a guide to an
even match up here, and the scores show the difficulty of taking 20 wickets
over a whole game, while also providing a surface for decent runs;
1st Test: Pakistan v South Africa at Dubai (DSC) - Nov 12-16, 2010South Africa 380 and 318/2d; Pakistan 248 and 343/3Match drawn
2nd Test: Pakistan v South Africa at Abu Dhabi - Nov 20-24, 2010South Africa 584/9d and 203/5d; Pakistan 434 and 153/3
Match drawn
So we know that this should be a closely matched series if
using South Africa (who an improving England drew with in 2009) as a formline,
and one which offers plenty of runs.
And what about the hosts? Pakistani cricket has taken more
hits than any nation over the past few years, but they’ve bounced back in
admirable style from the acrominous tour which brought about the jail sentences
of Salman Butt, Mohammed Asif, and Mohammed Amir, and under the radar, they’ve
turned themselves into one of Test cricket’s form sides.
Indeed, with Sri Lanka and India – who will surely lose
their No.2 status sooner rather than later – struggling badly, it could be that
England are playing Asia’s best side on their own patch. An impressive record
in 2011 of P10 W6 D3 L1 reads nicely, although some of the form should be
treated with caution.
If one is going to downplay the progress of England over the
past year (from a betting perspective) for the contrast on this pitch, then it
has to be noted that their 6 wins came against New Zealand (1), West Indies
(1), Zimbabwe (1), Sri Lanka (1), and Bangladesh (2). Neither of those sides –
barring what now looks like an aberrational result for New Zealand – really
match up to Australia, while it’s debateable if they’d do any better against
India.
The main reason for
this? Misbah-Ul-Haq. Since taking over the captaincy through a combination of
accident and default, he has won six Tests and lost only one, won 13 ODIs out
of 14, and won all five of his T20 matches. Over the period of Misbah's
captaincy, which began in November 2010, Pakistan have conceded the fewest runs
per over (2.92) and taken the most wickets per Test (18.42) than any other
team. Impressive, no matter who they’re up against.
Along with several up and comers such as Younis Khan, Azhar
Ali, Asad Shafiq, Taufeeq Umar and Mohammad Hafeez, Pakistan are progressing
into a side which isn’t short of talent. Pacemen Umar Gul, Aizas Cheema and
Sajeed Khan are all backed up by wizzkid Saeed Ajmal.
Whether this is
enough to make them a bet even at 11/4 is called into question against the
world’s best side, but England still have a tough task on their hands having not
won a single series in the subcontinent except for wins against Bangladesh
since their successes in 2000-01 in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
We still like them a lot more than the home side though, so
get England 1-0 onside at the 9/2 left with Bet 365, with the series price of
6/5 (best price Stan James) not making as much appeal as dutching with 2-0 at a
general 5/1.
Batsmen should come to fore if things get truly attrional,
and it’s not hard to see why runs are being predicted with so many top players
on both sides. Andrew Strauss, Alastair
Cook, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell (above left), Eoin Morgan and Matt Prior can all make big totals,
but despite being hit on the wrist in training, it is Bell who gets the vote.
A known player of spin, Bell scored nearly 1,000 runs last
year, making 950 runs in just 11 innings with 5 centuries. If able to replicate
that, he should be bang there and the 13/2 that Sportingbet offer about him
being top scorer in the series for England is well worth taking, along with the
tasty 15/2 about him outscoring all others (from England and Pakistan) in Paddy
Power’s top series runscorer market – After all, he’s on the side that are all
but odds on favorites, so why not take a price about him beating the others as
well.
Come to think of it, Misbah - Ul - Haq isn’t going to be a bad
shout in this market either. He’s thrived on the captaincy, has a style suited
to these pitches, and also can lay claim to 703 runs in his last 9 matches. 5/1
is also worth taking about him being the best of his own side, with only
Mohammed Hafeez and Younis Khan ahead of him in the betting. If anyone’s going to star with the ball, it looks set to be Saeed Ajmal, who took 18 wickets when Sri Lanka toured. Much will depend on how many overs he gets ahead of Umar Gul, who has a superior strike rate and only took 4 less wickets despite bowling 114 overs in the three matches compared to the 203.5, but it was the same case in the West Indies and he took 9 wickets against Bangladesh too, losing out only to Abdur Rehman. With condtions set to suit, he looks worth adding to the porfilio.
For much the same reasons, England’s Graeme Swann (left) gets the
vote to be England’s top wicket taker throughought the series. He already has 5
wickets on the tour and is the world’s best spinner, so the general 2/1 is
worth a poke for a bowler who averages 24 wickets at 30 apiece. Some will say
he hasn’t quite produced his very best form over the last year but he gets his
pitches now.
Advice
2 pts 1-0 England (9/2 Bet365)
2 pts 2-0 England (5/1 general)
England
1 pt Ian Bell to be top England runscorer (13/2 Sportingbet)
1 pt Grame Swann to be top England wicket - taker (11/5
Sportingbet)
Pakistan
1 pt Misbah Ul Haq to be top Pakistan runscorer (5/1
general)
1 pt Saeeed Ajamal to be top Pakistan wicket -taker (11/5
Stan James)
Other
2 pts each/way Ian Bell & Misbah – Ul – Haq to be top
series runscorer (both 15/2, Paddy Power)
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