Stats based punters are likely to have plenty of confidence
in the draw for this first test between England and Pakistan in the UAE – Four of
the last 5 tests in the UAE have ended in a stalemate and to be fair, the 6/5
about that happening again is fair enough.
Pakistan managed to hold South Africa to a draw here but
then showed a result isn’t impossible when beating Sri Lanka by nine wickets at
the venue last October. Granted things should be much harder here – Sri Lanka
were in a state of disarray and three of their best players fell to truly horrendous
shots – but it still shows the slight propensity for a result.
In the series preview I’ve gone for England to win 1 or 2-0
so a draw isn’t a massive hiccup, but I’d want to get a feel for the two teams
first before wading in – The new England have yet to tour Asia, where they last
won a series in 2000-01, while much of Pakistan’s success has been against
teams all ranked far lower than England in the case of South Africa – and value
lies elsewhere.
Dubai’s gained a reputation as a runscorers paradise and big
individual totals are a common theme there, but the highest total is just 403,
which seems to suggest that the difficult seems to be in taking the wickets
instead of the actual failure to prevent runs being scored.
Nevertheless, we’re told that it should be a batsman’s
wicket, and in that case it makes sense to look towards the big guns in terms
of batting. Misbah Ul – Haq’s strong leadership has been a key feature of why
the hosts are being considered closely for this and if on top form, the captain
is worth a chance to beat Mohamed Hafeez – who averages just 36 in 21 tests –
and Younis Khan in a best of three match bet. In any case, he should not be
bigger than the pair.
Ground specialist Azhar Ali scored 732 runs last year and
has the most runs of any player at this venue, so could be worth backing to
beat Johnathan Trott in a match bet getting 5 runs with Ladbrokes. England’s
Trott has made 129 runs on the tour so far so this will be a close one but the
handicap start could prove helpful while it would be unwise to underestimate the
home side’s batsmen. And last but not least, back Saeed Ajmal to get the better
of Abdul Rheman in the first innings wicket taker stakes. Sjeed was outplayed
in their last series v Bangladesh but can turn the tables around here.
Advice
2.5 pts Saeed Ajmal to take more wickets than Abdul Rheman
in 1st Innings (10/11 Hills)
1 pt Misabh Ul – Haq to outscore Younis Khan & Mohammed
Hafeez (15/8 Paddy Power)
1 pt Azhar Ali +4.5 v Jonathan Trott (5/6 Ladbrokes)
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