Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Pakistan v England - 2nd Test Preview


They say that all good things must come to an end and England’s first match as the No.1 ranked test nation in the World was a dismal 10 wicket defeat at the hands of Pakistan last week, which once again emphasised their dreadful subcontinent record – with no series wins there against a team other than Bangladesh in a decade, and a poor record against spin.

So what now for the top dogs? Nobody will be surprised to hear that of the 20 England wickets to fall in Dubai, 15 fell to spin, and 10 of those can be claimed by the hotshot Saeed Ajamal, whose remarkable rise throughought the last year or so now sees him with more wickets (93) in his first 18 Tests than Shane Warne and Muttiah Muralitharan at the same stage of their careers.

Was it all down to him through? Even with the several wickets he took throughought the match, a lot of England’s woes can be put down to poor shot selections, which is evident given how Umar Gul reduced the visitors to 4-35 with nothing more than long hops. Maybe that’s harsh given how well he bowled, but the point remains that the result of the test and the series lies inside how England’s batsmen from 1-7 handle themselves.

This wouldn’t be the first time that England have bounced back in good style from a a defeat - Yet after their five previous defeats, England have bounced back to win their next Test four times (all by good margins) while Andy Flower hadn’t had as much time as they’d like when they lost to the West Indies.

Their bowling too is also a more positive aspect. Despite losing the match by 10 wickets, England kept Pakistan to 338 despite them being 114 without loss at one stage, and it was only the late runs of Adnan Akmal that made their total go past 300.
James Anderson went on a celebration run after clean-bowling Abdur Rehman late in the day 
Despite struggling for long periods Graeme Swann ended up with four first innings wickets, while he was closely followed by Stuart Broad and James Anderson (left). The latter only got two wickets at the end of the innings but seems a fair bet to take more wickets than Steven Finn, who will be making his tour debut if picked.

The forecast was for a run dominated series but the pitch didn’t seem to be impossible for either bowlers or batsmen in the first test, and while the two tests played here have seen double century scoring draws, the same was true of Dubai’s games, and it’s not hard to see a result being forced. If you can’t concur with that point of view than at least wait until the end of the first day for the reasons given by the excellent Dave Tickner and Ed Hawkins.

It’s also interesting to note that three pacemen have all taken four or more wickets in the first innings of Abu Dhabi tests, which would lead one to take a serious look at Umar Gul’s performance markets.

Such is the strike rate of Umar Gul overall and quicks at the Zayed Stadium that serious consideration was given towards Gul in a match bet with Ajmal, but far more value lies in backing him to be the top first innings wicket taker at 3/1 with Ladbrokes.

England’s batsmen have some serious improving to do ahead of this test but Ian Bell went out to two genuinely great deliveries from Saeed Ajmal In both innings and he can get the better of Kevin Pietersen, who didn’t look happy on the tour, in the first innings.

Misbah Ul Haq’s attrional style saw him make 51 before going in the first innings and it’s not hard to see him doing something similar. There are a wide range of options about him here but Ladbrokes’s 7/1 about him +3 on the 1st Innings handicap seems more than fair, as he has 77 and 46 to his name here in his two first innings scores.

Advice

1 pt Umar Gul top Pakistan 1st innings wicket taker (3/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Misbah Ul Haq +3 on 1st innings Batsman handicap (7/1 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Ian Bell to outscore Kevin Pietersen (5/6 Hills)

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