Ryder Cup 2012 - Singles

11.03am CDT, 5.03pm BST: Bubba Watson (11/8) v Luke Donald (11/10)

The first of many top heavy singles battles are Europe look to get some early momentum in their bid for an astonishing fightback, while the USA look to seal the deal early. Luke Donald has won just a point out of three so far but shot 64 with his own ball yesterday as he carried the lacklustre Sergio Garcia to victory, so he’s got every single right to be rated 11/10 for singles victory, not forgetting that he’s got an exceptional record at this event – he came into it with a 77% success record including two successes. Wastson as was beaten by Miguel Angel Jimenez two years ago and in the Presidents Cup but never again will he play on a Ryder Cup course which is so suited towards him – there is quite literally no rough at Medinah, which is typical of the course that Watson enjoys so much as he showed at Augusta, and while Europe can have high hopes this might be best left.

Advice: Donald can edge this 2&1, but this course suits Watson too much to be confident. 1-0 Europe

11.14am CDT, 5.14pm BST: Webb Simpson (6/4) v Ian Poulter (evs)

Ian Poulter has always been something of a Ryder Cup specialist but yesterday’s performance defied belief when he quite literally carried Rory McIlroy to victory over the one of the most impressive pairings seen so far at the tournament with an astonishing run of 5 birdies in the last 5 holes. It’s very much his show that has given Europe a slim, slim chance of retaining the trophy.  The markets have him down as easy meat for Webb Simpson, which might be unfair based on how well he’s played so far, notably when thrashing Rose and Molinari with the match over by the 14^thhole. With that being the case and Poulter also shooting to give us 18/1 and 8/1 winners in the top pointscorer markets, we’ll leave this alone and cheer him on.

Advice: Poutler is a rightful favourite but will have to call upon his reserves again to beat the super reliable putter Simpson. With outright gains at stake, this is one to watch with crossed fingers. 2-0 Europe

11.25am CDT, 5.25pm BST: Keegan Bradley (8/5) v Rory McIlroy (10/11)

With two points already on the board and several fine shots to his name, it’s understandably that Rory McIlroy – himself a finalist of the World Matchplay Championship only to lose in the final – is favourite to beat Keegan Bradley. However Bradley has won every match he’s played in so far, is loving his home debut in the Ryder Cup, has been boosted massively by his pairing with Phil Mickleson and will come here feeling full of life after his rampant victories. McIlroy has been one of the better Europeans and you could argue that his favouritism is deserved, but the price gap is simply miles too big in any circumstance, let alone these.

Advice: 3 pts Keegan Bradley (8/5 Stan James) 2-1 Europe

11.36am CDT, 5.36pm BST: Phil Mickelson (evs) v Justin Rose (6/4)

Phil Mickleson had a horrendous Ryder Cup record before coming here but the responsibility of playing alongside his tutee Keegan Bradley has focused him tremendously and he’s never played so well at this event, being arguably the most impressive American so far with a 100% record so far. His singles record was his most solid piece of form beforehand in any case but playing like this at a course which doesn’t punish his occasional waywardness, he looks excellent value to beat Justin Rose today and complete his finest tournament ever. Rose, who beat Lefty 3&2 at Valhalla four years ago, when the pair also went out fourth, was totally walloped in the Fourballs against Watson and Simpson when the emphasis is more on individual play and while he’s had a solid week so far, he may be running into a player with far too much momentum.

Advice: 2 pts Phil Mickleson (evs Boylesports, Ladbrokes) 2-2

11.47am CDT, 5.47pm BST: Brandt Snedeker (5/6) v Paul Lawrie (7/4)

Paul Lawrie has played twice and been well beaten twice so despite his run to the the semi-finals of the Volvo World Match Play in the spring, I couldn’t touch him with a bargepole against Brandt Snedeker, who will have gained a big boost from reversing their first day foursomes defeat against McIlroy and McDowell yesterday in a nervy contest. Indeed it’s a surprise that Peter Hanson – who beat Snedeker in the Accenture Championship – hasn’t been pitched into battle with the debutant but Snedeker, who went from unconsidered to leading contender within a month after winning the Tour Championship, is brilliant with the putter so should really enjoy these greens today and is a worthy favourite, even if he is odds on.  

Advice: 2 pts Brandt Snedeker (5/6 general) 3-2 USA

11.58am CDT, 5.58pm BST: Dustin Johnson (11/10) v Nicolas Colsaerts (11/8)

This should be a real treat as two of the biggest hitters in world golf go head to head in a crucial match. The late maturing Dustin Johnson is unbeaten and if he didn’t need enough of a mental advantage with the Medinah galleries pushing him on, he holed the putt that denied Colsaerts anything from their fourball match yesterday. It was very harsh on the Belgian, who was so good on Friday on one of the finest debuts in the history of the competition. Nicolas is a real fighter and played superbly yesterday, so I wouldn’t be wanting to take him on given that he’s the reigning world matchplay champion. 11/8 about the Belgian is tempting but might just be best left today.

Advice: Nicolas is more than capable of bouncing back and taking a massive point for Europe but he’s just a touch too short. 3-3

12.09am CDT, 6.09pm BST: Zach Johnson (6/5) v Graeme McDowell (11/8)

Graeme McDowell has shown animal like qualities this week despite winning just one point from three this week but it can’t possibly be forgotten how  famously beat Hunter Mahan to win the Ryder Cup for Europe at Celtic Manor. Zach Johnson has had an excellent two days so far and was denied only by Poulter, so will fancy his chances of dogging this one out.

Advice: Johnson can use home advantage to beat of McDowell but not one that can be called confidently. 4-3 USA

12.20am CDT, 6.20pm BST: Jim Furyk (11/8) v Sergio Garcia (5/4)

Sergio Garcia has been an expensive failure so far for us and he may be best opposed against Jim Furyk, who beat McIlroy and McDowell in a reverse of his opening day defeat in the foursomes. That will give him a lot of confidence and things get even better with his strong singles record (Won 4, Lost 2, Halved 1) compared to Garcia’s, who himself has lost four out of five singles in this competition. Fuyrk become just the fourth many in history to win all his points in the Presidents Cup and has the confidence and support to overturn the Spaniard.

Advice: 1 pt Jim Furyk (11/8 Betfred) 5-3 USA

12.31am CDT, 6.31pm BST: Jason Dufner (10/11) v Peter Hanson (2)

Jason Dufner is making his debut in this competition but has an excellent chance of holding what might possibly be the winning putt against Peter Hanson, who has had a lack of competitive practice, even then being thumped alongside Paul Lawrie in the foursomes on Friday evening. Hanson lost to a below par Phil Mickleson two years ago and is very vulnerable down the order to Dufner, who could easily have faltered under the Poulter barrage but made him fight for every birdie.

Advice: 2 pts Jason Dunfer (10/11 Ladbrokes) 6-3 USA

12.42am CDT, 6.42pm BST: Matt Kuchar (11/10) v Lee Westwood (8/5)

Lee Westwood has an excellent Ryder Cup record but a very poor singles one – He’s won 2 and lost 5 of his 7 – and he’s had a disastrous tournament, blowing a great lead in the opening day foursomes and being totally carried by Colsaerts' performance.Matt Kuchar has to be the bet.

Advice: 1 pt Matt Kuchar (11/10 Ladbrokes) 7-3 USA

12.53am CDT, 6.53pm BST: Steve Stricker (evs) v Martin Kaymer (15/8)

 The USA – holding such a large and commanding lead – may well have regained the trophy by the time this match reaches the back nine. As such, this match is really best avoided despite Stricker being quite a tempting option against Kaymer, who has lost the only match he’s played so far.

Advice: Stricker should win this, but that’s reflected in the prices and the Cup might be over by then. 9-3 USA

1.04am CDT, 7.04pm BST: Tiger Woods (4/5) v Francesco Molinari (23/10)

Tiger Woods has had a dreadful Ryder Cup record and is pointless going into today. With that in mind and the fact that he’s the last match possible, why should anyone back him to beat Francesco Molinari in a match that may well be halved before the end?

Advice: Leave well alone. 9-3 USA

VERDICT: The USA can romp to an emphatic victory in the Ryder Cup by winning the Singles event that they’ve so dominated. Much has been made about the strength of this team but it’s worth underlining that they’ve got 7 major champions here, with the course being set up for more than one – the lack of rough at Medinah is sure to suit Watson, Mickleson and Bradley especially – and the superior putting skills shown by the home side may well be more evident than ever in this format. Having already advised the win beforehand, there seems to be little other outright value barring an acca of the most confident choices. – Mickleson, Dufner, Bradley, Furyk and Snedeker.

Already Advised: 4 pts USA to win Singles (4/5 Ladbrokes)

Acca: Mickleson, Dufner, Bradley, Furyk and Snedeker (19/1 Sportingbet) 

Premiership - 29th September 2012

Everton (4/9) v Southampton (2/5)

Everton were brought back down to earth with a shoddy showing in the League Cup but this outfit is much stronger and have far too much for Southampton, who have been very poor at the back despite packing a serious punch or two going forward. With both teams being best going forward, this game looks set for goals and over 3.5 along with both teams to score. Everton are 7/4 with to win while conceding, and that might be a sensible option to take on value grounds.

Advice: 1 pt Everton to win while conceding (7/4 Coral)

Fulham (7/2) v Manchester City (5/6)

Manchester City have attracted a few criticisms lately due to a lacklustre defensive start to the season but they’ve not played too badly so far this season and people are beginning to overreact to their title chances given that they’ve played no worse than neighbours United so far. A trip to Fulham is hardly ideal though, so both teams to score might be the best option given that it’s banked in City’s last 6 games and the last 4 meetings at the Cottage between these two teams. Those who want to side with City should try the HT/FT result; Fulham have conceded six of their seven league goals in the first half while City have led at the break in every PL game but Liverpool and Stoke, two places they’ve never had great records at.

Advice: 3 pts Both teams to score (8/11 Betfred, Stan James), 1 pt Manchester City/Manchester City (15/8 Bet Victor)

Norwich (10/3) v Liverpool (4/5)

Liverpool are desperately unlucky not to have a win from their games so far this season – they should have beaten both Manchester clubs at Anfield and have only really been deservedly beaten by Arsenal – but their goalscoring woes will always hold them back and with such a young team out (3 teenagers, although they were admittedly good against West Brom in midweek). On paper that should beat Norwich, but they looked good in patches against Newcastle and will at the least put up a stiff defensive test of their home fixture against West Ham as anything to go by. Unders is the call.

Advice: 1 pt Under 2.5 goals (10/11 general)

Reading (19/10) v Newcastle (17/10)

Reading are currently bottom of the table with just a point from four games while Newcastle are eighth, but you can still get prices of upto 2/1 available about the club which scored in 16 of their 19 away league games last season. Newcastle were good against Norwich and deserved the three points, and they have more than enough defensive and attacking quality to get a result here.

Advice: 4 pts Newcastle (17/10 Bet Vicitor)

Stoke (evs) v Swansea (7/2)

Stoke have been fiercely competitive despite failing to register a single win so far, but even then they look underpriced to beat Swansea at odds on prices. Swansea’s fast start to the season has been badly stumped but if they were to bounce back to their best then they might present a stiff test. Four of Stoke’s 5 have been under 2.5 and that’s the call once again, although the draw should be considered.

Advice: 2 pts Under 2.5 goals (4/5 Blue Sq)

Sunderland (evs) v Wigan (14/5)

Sunderland would be very deserving of a first League win here but they’re hard to trust against opponents as Idiosyncractic as Wigan, who are capable of winning jus this kind of game, have won 3 away games this season and have started this campaign much better than they usually do. Backing both teams to score might be the best option.

Advice: 2 pts Both teams to score (17/20 Bet Victor)

Manchester United (3/5) v Tottenham (11/2)

Manchester United have won their last 6 – infact they’ve won all their games since losing 1-0 to Everton – but have been thoroughly unconvincing in all those performances and have been bailed out by their insane reserves of talent  upfront, and in the case of last week, a disgraceful referring performance. Tottenham are actually quite tempting at 11/2 but they’ve have not won at Old Trafford since 1989 and are still finding themselves under AVB. That said, both teams to score has banked in all but two of United’s games and plenty of Spurs, so doubling that with a United win looks to be the safe option.

Advice: 2 pts Both teams to score (8/11 general), 1 pt Manchester United to win without conceding (2/1 Coral) 

Rugby Championship 2012 - South Africa v Australia

It was Bobby Orr who said ‘Forget about style; worry about results.’ and today angry Springbok fans can get a bit of respite from their recent disappointments as South Africa give a convincing beating to Australia on home turf in today’s first Rugby Championship game. Australia have won their last 5 meetings with South Africa, but there’s been a massive amount of luck and Springbok error involved in those victories and everything finally seems set fair in South Africa’s favour to put things right today.

Home turf is a massive vantage in International Rugby like no other but Loftus Versfield is a special place. Only New Zealand, the Lions and England have won in 30 tests there and the Boks also possess a record of 5 wins from 5 matches at this venue against Australia.

With South Africa being so much better at home their away performances are hugely encouraging. They led 13-6 at the break against Australia and were the better side for long periods of the contests before costly defensive mistakes cost them dear (the scores were level with just 12 minutes to go) but they were even better against New Zealand, where they lost 21-11 but missed 20 points off the tee alone thanks to the wastefulness of Morne and Frans Steyn. It belied criticism of a one-dimensional game plan that involved the fly-half Morne Steyn hoisting the ball high into the air and putting pressure on the All Blacks to commit errors, which worked better than anyone else could have imagined with a whole batch of kickable opportunities. This doesn’t even take into account the certain try missed by Bryan Habana when the last pass just went astray, which in total makes it an astonishing 25 points just thrown away. Make no mistake, it was a game they should have won with some ease last week but back at home with high altitude to help them, kicking should be that much easier off the tee and Australia present nowhere near the threat that New Zealand did offensively while their defence is more than breachable for a side boasting the forward power that the Boks can boast of.

Robbie Deans has won a remarkable 10 of 14 matches in the past year with three defeats combing against the All Blacks, but at least half of those could have been losses (and heavy ones at that too) and Australia’s injury problems are at their worst point ever under Deans. James Horwill, James O'Connor, David Pocock and Drew Mitchell are already out of the side but Quade Cooper – who just this week labelled the atmosphere in the camp as “toxic” – has already been reprimanded after his potentially season ending injury, pushing Kurtley Beale into the No.10 spot. Beale is a top class 10 and Pat McCabe still offers a threat, but the rest of the team doesn’t look upto scratch and if South Africa can’t win this time around, it’s hard to see when they’ll arrest the slide. Look for the hosts to lead from the front and cover a seven point handicap, with 49 points or more also looking to be the call.

Advice

3 pts South Africa -7 (10/11 general)

1 pt South Africa -3 on half time handicap (5/6 general) 

Ryder Cup 2012 - Pointscoring previews

The top scorer betting for the Ryder Cup is a hugely competitive affair, although there’s one key fact that can be used to instantly eliminate quite a few players – who plays the first sessions of foursomes and fourballs. With this coming at the tee time off the third fourball, we already know who’s playing who and we can eliminate everyone who’s not in the four matches taking place at the moment.

After that, the key decision is now who will be suited by Medinah, the long sweeping venue used for the 1999 and 2006 USPGA tournaments. Back then the course was typical of an American major layout. Long, tough and sharp. And today it still is, except for the massive modifications made by Davis Love III which have completely changed the outlook of the course as we know it. With several of the US team so good with the drivers, Love has demanded that all the rough on either side literally be cut down to such a level that even I could get out of it – and anyone who has seen me on Clifton Hill’s driving range will testify that I’m not exactly impressive - with only 20 yards of a very light first cut on either side of the fairway creating an 40 extra yards of hitting space.

Good putting – as with any form of golf – is a must although especially more so on these sharp greens, but big drivers will be at an extra advantage and tee to green specialists even more so. Of the Europeans playing now, Ian Poulter and Luke Donald would be my choices to get a full five games here and with both having course form – they were sixth and ninth in the USPGA at Medinah in 2006. Donald has never been on the losing side in a Ryder Cup and his staggering 77% success rate tells us all we need to know, while Poulter will get 5 games and also has never lost a singles match.  He can also outscore Steve Stricker, which is a no brainer given the pair’s records.

A happy Garcia is usually a winning one 

Sergio Garcia is good enough if on form but has lost four singles matches and makes far more appeal for the top continental European, where his other opponents haven’t got the games this morning. He currently trades at 4/5 on Betfair and looks to be yet another banker to add to our portfolio. In any case, this is Nicolas Colasterts’s first Ryder Cup and Peter Hanson isn’t in the same class.

For the US, things are less clear cut, but if there’s one man who should get all 5 games (barring Woods, who started awfully in the morning) then it may be Dustin Johnson, who has been in excellent form during the Fed Ex Cup and has the fairways wide open to suit him.

Advice – Top Pointscorer

1 pt each/way Luke Donald (12/1 general)

1 pt each/way Ian Poulter (18/1 Boylesports)

1 pt each/way Dustin Johnson (14/1 general)

Advice – Top European

1 pt each/way Luke Donald (6/1 general)

1 pt each/way Ian Poulter (8/1 general)

Advice – Top American

1 pt each/way Dustin Johnson (9/1 general)

Advice – Specials

4 pts Sergio Garcia top Continental European points scorer (4/5 Betfair)

4 pts Ian Poulter to beat Steve Stricker (4/5 Bet365)

Ryder Cup 2012 - Day 1, Session 1 (Foursomes)

The Ryder Cup kicks off with one of the best events at the tournament, the alternate shot foursomes, one of the sport’s unique sights as one of the true elements of team golf. In "foursomes", two players alternate hitting the same ball, from tee shot until a putt is made. They also alternate who hits the tee shot on each hole. So, regardless of who makes the putts, player one would hit drives on the first, third, and fifth holes, while player two hits the tee shots on the second, fourth, and sixth holes. Below each match is rated.

Jim Furyk/Brandt Snedeker vs. Rory McIlroy/Graeme McDowell: With the course at Medinah having been opened and cut away – there is literally no rough at all and the fairways have been opened enough to allow even the most wayward bombers to compete, so Rory should really fancy his chances standing at fifth in the driving average list on this season’s PGA Tour. He performed poorly at Celtic Manor but is a much wiser player now and won his foursomes match with McDowell two years ago, so they are fancied to pair up to good effect here. Furyk and Snedeker are a similar kind of matchup, but this can go to Europe.

Advice: No bet at prices, but preference is for Europe. 1-0

Phil Mickelson/Keegan Bradley vs. Luke Donald/Sergio Garcia: One of the marquee matchups, with three of the biggest players in the same match, and Bradley is already a major champion in only his second year on the PGA Tour. Bradley is a debutant though and Mickleson has lost 5 of his foursomes, while Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia, have a combined 14 wins, 1 tie, and no losses in Ryder Cup foursomes. No contest.

Advice: 4 pts Donald/Garcia (10/11 general). 2-0

Jason Dufner/Zach Johnson vs. Lee Westwood/Francesco Molinari: This is harder to predict. Dufner is making his debut but he’s a late developer in general, and his age is clearly helping rather than hindering him – and his 70% of green shots is a really encouraging for the approach to the sharp greens. Johnson, who is the shorting hitting off the two, is a sensational putter who’s finally getting a chance to play at home having gone to the K Club and Celtic Manor, while he’s been given a playing partner that really suits him. Westwood and Molinari are very good tee to green players, but have suffered nerves on the greens at the big stages before and may have to give second best again.

Advice: 5/4 is tempting about the Americans given their putting dependency, but the tee to green ability of the Westwood/Molinari pairing means it might just be best left. 2-1

Steve Stricker/Tiger Woods vs. Ian Poulter/Justin Rose: Tiger Woods has a notoriously poor Ryder Cup record although the pairing of him and Steve Sticker (who won their foursome convcingly two years ago) should work well, That said, they’re very short in comparison to the 13/8 offered for Poulter (top points scorer combined at Vallhalla) and Rose, who teamed up for two points in the first three sessions two years ago. At the prices, only one team stands out.

Advice: 1 pt Poulter/Rose (13/8 Betfred). 3-1 Europe

VERDICT: Europe have won the first morning's session in four of the last six Ryder Cups and they should feel very confident about taking the foursomes, a session in which they lead 37-27 over the history of the tournament. Only two players - Peter Hanson and Francesco Molinari - own losing records compared to an American record which sees Only Matt Kuchar (one from one) own a winning record. Olzabal’s matchups contrast strong winning records (Luke Donald has won all six of his games, Sergio Garcia is eight from 11, Lee Westwood has won seven from 13, Ian Poulter two from three, Justin Rose two from four) with the best tee to green approaches, and that can see them take a convincing lead, as they will need to do to retain the trophy. Back the visitors for a 3-1 lead.

Advice: 3 pts Europe (6/4 general), 3-1 Europe (6/1 general) 

Ryder Cup 2012

They key decisions involved in the choice making of seeing who wins or loses at this year’s Ryder Cup have never been so varied or wide ranging. Approaching the start of today’s epic battle at Medinah, exceptionally strong cases can be made for both the USA and Europe in what has to be one of the closest Ryder Cups on paper ever seen in the modern era.

Do you go with the home advantage of the Americans – not forgetting the small statistic that six of the last seven Ryder Cups have been won by the hosts - who have a combined world ranking of 146,(81 spots better than the Europeans), seven major champions, Woods, Mickelson, Watson, Bradley, Simpson, Zach Johnson and Furyk), 5 of the top 10 in the PGA Tour's Birdie or Better Conversation percentage stats over this season, have lost only once at home in 15 years, an extremely proficient captaining setup – Davis Love Jr has already wasted no time in using many of Paul Azinger’s winning methods and Fred Couples has seen the USA Team to victory in the last two renewals of the Presidents Cup – and to boot, the whole of the Medinah course and it’s 50,000 strong Chicago galleries behind them.

Likewise, do you go with the experienced and strong Europeans, who can boast eight winning records in the tournament - win percentage is over 50 percent – with even the three who aren’t in that bracket (Rory McIlroy, Peter Hanson and Francesco Molinari) all having contributed to Europe's victory at Celtic Manor. World No.1 Rory Mcilroy Luke Donald (No. 3 overall world ranking), Lee Westwood (No. 4), Justin Rose (No. 5), Graeme McDowell (No. 18), Sergio Garcia (No. 19), Peter Hanson (No. 25), Ian Poulter (No. 26), Paul Lawrie (No. 28), Francesco Molinari (No. 31), Martin Kaymer (No. 32) and Nicolas Colaserts (No. 35), all give them just as strong a team as the US on the work rankings – even if there is a gap of 81 spots in the accumulative rankings?

 

As has been noted by many, playing in the US is also far from a new thing for the Europeans. McIlroy had always been tipped for big things but made his name in the US and was clearly the Fed Ex Cup’s best player despite missing out on the overall victory, something that will matter little to him with this motivation, Westwood, Rose, McDowell, Kaymer and especially Garcia and Luke Donald (more on them later) have excellent US records, large fan bases and even homes in the case of Westwood, who has moved to try and capture an elusive major triumph. The Europeans have the better matchplay records, more senior figures, have won 6 of the last 8, and have a combined record of 60 wins, 32 losses, and 18 halved matches compared to 41 wins, 59 losses and 16 halves for their counterparts.

Admittedly one would say the Americans have the better players for Medinah – which has been completely changed from the tough course that greeted Tiger Woods on his way to two major triumphs in 1999 and 2006 at the request of Davis Love Jr – but the European’s foursomes (they lead 37-27) and fourballs (36-28) records may give them the fast start they need and with momentum in the Ryder Cup being such a crucial element of success, it’s very tempting to back the Europeans at a big 13/8 considering that their one hammering here can be explained in large part to Nick Faldo’s awful captaincy. If they can get into an early lead and nullify the crowds then the chances of victory become very immediate and significantly greater than the odds suggest, and just 8 years ago Europe claimed a record 18.5 points here when hammering the home team after a strong start. If the visitors get a lead again then it might not be long before the galleries are quietened down. From that perspective Europe might make appeal at 13/8 in the long run for the Trophy, but whatever happens this should be desperately close and with half of the last ten Ryder Cups have finished with a score of 14 ½ - 13 ½, then both sides to win by that scoreline makes great appeal on value terms.  

I couldn’t put anyone off backing either side to win the trophy – at the prices the Europeans represent value but the USA only went down by a point at a raucous Celtic Manor and will fancy their chances of turning things around on their own turf – but the strongest selection offered here is the 4/5 on the USA winning the Sunday singles, an event in which they have an extremely strong record (they have 43.5 points to Europe’s 40.5) despite two thrashings in recent cups and 3 thrashings in recent years. This is one of the best squad of putters that they’ve had, and regardless of the situation heading into the final day, their class should shine on extremely sharp greens with the course basically made for the likes of Watson, Dufner, and Woods to shine while giving generous helping hands to Phil Mickleson and Zach Johnson.

Advice

1 pt USA to win 14 ½ - 13 ½ (10/1 general)

1 pt Europe to win 14 ½ - 13 ½ (11/1 general)

4 pts USA to win Singles (4/5 Ladbrokes) 

Capital One Cup 2012/13 Preview

Lovingly known as the “mickey mouse cup”, a trophy that teams only pursue when they’ve got nothing else left to play for, and somehow, it’s found a sponsor for yet another year. Credit where credit’s due to Capital One for fronting up so that we can have another round of midweek fixtures, although the Capital One Cup is about as bad as it gets in terms of embarrassment.

Manchester United have enjoyed the League Cup of late and could well
be celebrating once again

With so many teams not caring for the trophy, one would be inclined to think that it’s best to look outside the established “Big six” and look for some value, but recent results tell us differently. Since 2000, 9 of the winners have come from a select group of four teams – Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham – and with three of those wins coming since 2006, Manchester United look to be the value of the Premier League giants at 9/1.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s side are not impervious to an upset or two in this competition - Coventry won at Old Trafford a few years back and last season Crystal Palace did likewise – but barring that they have a strong record in this trophy (100 match wins in this competition - only five clubs have won more) and their attacking strength in depth may give them the edge. This will be the last thing on their list of targets but you get an idea of the strength in depth that United have when Nick Powell, Alex Buttner, and David de Gea may play against Newcastle despite Tottenham coming to Old Trafford this weekend, while a front four of listed strikers – Rooney, Hernandez, Wellbeck and Van Persie – is surely going to result in at least one or two of them playing while the likes of Antonio Valencia regularly got games in this competition last season. In defence Phil Jones and Chris Smalling may get an outing or two and considering the heavy rotation that other sides will take, they look to have very strong claims of going all the way this year.

After reaching three League Cup finals in four years Chelsea's recent record in the League Cup has been surprisingly poor, having failed to make it to the quarter-final stage for the last four seasons following defeats to Burnley, Blackburn, Liverpool and Newcastle. However this time around their squad strength may well force them through to the latter stages of the competition after the influx of midfield talent during the summer. Cahill, Terry, Bertrand, Ramires, Romeu, Mata, Torres and Moses are all starting tonight’s first round tie against Wolves and while it’s not likely that the side will be that strong through the rounds, Cesar Azpilicueta, Marko Marin and Lucas Piazon are the sort of names that can come in and it’s a sign of intent that Roberto Di Matteo’s naming a team of that strength just a few days before a trip to an unbeaten Arsenal side. With the luck of the draw on their side, they look to be live runners despite the Club World Cup in December threatening to change their plans.

Arsenal  are known for finding gems in this competition but that strategy ironically has prevented them from winning it, and they’ve got less strength in depth than ever this time around. Expect to see some top players emerge through the campaign, but one of the bigger teams may have more firepower like Manchester City did when taking vantage of a naïve performance at the Emirates last year.

City themselves have the strongest all round squad of any side in England and may have diverted more attention towards their semi-final with Liverpool (who were taking it very seriously last season)  thanks to an extremely congested fixture list - with five Premier League fixtures and a Manchester derby double all in one month surrounding their semi final clash.

However the fact that Toure, Rodwell, Milner, Barry, Kolarov, Tevez, and Balotell are in a side which has been completely replace since Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Arsenal shows the strength in depth that they have, so despite being away after every single round of the competition (and with some tricky sides too in that run) they have to be hugely respected, although 6/1 is short for a competiton that won’t be high on the list.

Liverpool were hugely deserving winners last season, getting the reward that they deserved for going full pelt at the competition last year – they were drawn away in every round and beat Manchester City and Chelsea on their way towards the cup – but with their poor start to the League this year their side will be nowhere near as strong and there are better options. With the Premier League so competitive this year, nobody else makes any real appeal for this with the competition so low on the priority list until late on.

Advice

2 pts Manchester United (9/1 general)

1 pt Chelsea (8/1 Stan James)

UCI World Road Championships - Elite Men's Road Race

A quite terrific year of Cycling comes to an end – with only minor UCI Tour events to go – when the men take off for the Elite Road Race in the World Championship. Often a difficult event to predict – barring last year’s sprint finish where the course allowed for it - this year’s parcours is one of the most competitive yet.

The main decider is the Cauberg, renowned for its prominent role in the Amstel Gold Race, used in both the TTT and ITT so far this week, used 10 times with a maximum gradient of 12%, part of a leg sapping 265km, which also features 7 short and sharp climbs beforehand over the 100km loop through the province of Limburg, before part two sees us take in winding Bemelerberg (900m with a max gradient of 7%) and the game-changing Cauberg (1.5km with an average gradient of 5.8%), all used 10 times.

To start with finding the winner, the first thing to be done is to exclude the pure sprinters. There may be a 1.7KM flat section to the finish but the sheer amount of climbing done is enough to discount them, with the flat section coming after the 10^th use of the Cauberg. The second is to be looking for riders who have a strong record in the Ardennes classics – long races which take in climbing and sprinting, usually like the Amstel Gold, La Fleche Walonne, and Liege Bastogne-Liege – as they bear the most similarities towards a race like today’s instead of pure sprint or mountain stages.

Second is the team strategy and team strength. Mark Cavendish’s victory last year was down to huge amount of work from team GB on the front of the Peloton, and all this had been planned for a good year beforehand (‘Operation Rainbow Jersey’).

Taking all this into account, it’s easy to see why Philippe Gilbert, a two time winner of the Amstel Gold, one of two winners of all three spring classics – and numerous stage races across the world, is a heavy favourite. Gilbert has had a troubled year, yet still won two stages of the Vuelta a Espana with relative ease, beating off a talented cross section of sprinters and punchers including Alejandro Valverde on Stage 19. After an incredible year which brought 18 wins, he’d suffered a huge loss of form and condition, but a successful attack on Stage 9 of the Vuelta was just the tonic. His Belgian team is one of the strongest in the race – De Weert, Devenyns, Meersman, Vansummer, Rolendants, and Boonen if he decided to ride in the team – so the 3/1 avlaible on him winning is fair, if not a little short.

Peter Sagan, a relatively unknown sprinter a couple of years ago, has undoubtedly been one of the highlights of the Tour De France this year with his three stage wins, but he’s got the attitude and skills needed for classics as well. We’ve already seen him on steep uphill climbs, we know he can break, and we know he can outsprint everyone here if it comes down to a bunch sprint, but he’s lost some of the condition that he’d held from his Tour De France exploits by his own admission and does look a touch short.

It’s 10/1 the field bar them, and Alejandro Valverde (far left) looks to be a solid wager at a general 10/1. Second in the Vuelta A Espana this year, Valverde lost a lot of time in the red jersey after crashing early on Stage 3 but was rarely not seen on the finish of a stage afterwards, including relatively  flat ending to stages 9, 17, 19, and 21, and as a three time medallist here, he looks like a very solid shout to lead the Spainish challenge and claim his first rainbow jersey today. The Spainish team – most of which may well be riding in support of him- is just incredibly strong with Contador, Rodrgiuez, Friere, Moreno, Sanchez, Flecha and Castroviejo all potentially in support – while we know he’s capable of attacking hard up a climb and sprinting on the flat, so 10/1 – especially with Brefred offering 4 places at ¼ the odds and 9/4 for a medal seem generous.

Simon Gerrans - fourth in the GP De Montreal when trying to follow up from his Québec win -has nothing like the support that Valverde can count upon but his punchy style – a win at the Milan-San Remo is a testament to his ability while he does have Porte, Rogers and Clarke supporting him, so he is worth having in the portfolio both win and place. The Australian team has secured a place on the world championship podium for the last three years, so we have a team with a proven track record

If we’re talking about puncheurs, then the one man who comes to mind instantly has to be Thomas Voeckler. One of the most popular riders in World Cycling, Voeckler was one of the highlights of this year’s Tour De France with his ultra-attacking style and heart on his sleeve mentality, and has had the whole of the French team (barring Jerome Coppel, who is in the break ) to help his cause.

Manager Laurent Jalabert has used his full allocation just to create a team that’s set completely around him, which could prove to be a wise move given how well we know Vockler can handle the most brutal stages of the Tour, while he also has a strong classics profile. Fourth and fifth in Amstel Gold and Liege Bastone Liege, he could be massively overpriced at 20’s having talent a real interest in the event.

Advice

1 pt each/way Alejandro Valverde (10/1 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Simon Gerrans (16/1 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Thomas Vockeler (25/1 Betfred)

World Road Cycling Championships - Men's time trial

The World Championship Time Tirals of the past few years have been a pretty cut and dry affair, but a hilly course that can suit pucnhuers and flat specialists equally. An undulating course in the Netherlands with three categorised climbs, including the final ascent of the Cauberg - which is used in the annual Amstel Gold spring classic and was also used in the men's team time trial last weekend. The absence of four time World Champion Fabian Cancellara and the unbeaten (in ITT’s this year over 10KM) Bradley Wiggins has left the medal race wide open. In theory this should be at the mercy of reigning Champion Tony Martin, who hasn’t had the greatest year in the rainbow jersey.  A dreadful Tour De France – where he broke his wrist, and had punctures on two of the three ITT’s during the race – had been bettered by an Olympic second, but that was on a super flat course and today’s affair is going to be far more testing.

The best recent guide – at the very least in terms of the course – has to be the ITT in the Vuelta, where Martin struggled badly and was down in 12^th, over 1.20 behind Federik Kesiakoff and Alberto Contador (right). To be fair to him, this course is less testing than that of the Vuelta, but it’s no cakewalk and he’ll need to be at his best if he’s to retain hits title – it’s certainly not the 8/13 shot many bookmakers have made it. Admittedly he handled it just fine in the Team Time Trial, but there’s still an element of doubt about his price.

In a race where many of the contenders for the medal would want a much flatter course or haven’t been in the greatest of form, Contador looks far too big at 9/2 with Ladbrokes. Second in the hilly Vuelta TT, he should be feeling great after sealing yet another Grand Tour Triumph, and he’s shown the form in the past needed to take elite Time Trials – he one beat even Fabian Cancellara in the Tour De France around Lake Annecy, so at 9/2 compared to long odds on for Martin he’s the obvious value choice. Kesiakoff himself is tempting too at 7’s, although Contador may claim more time on Martin in the flatter sections.

Advice

1 pt Alberto Contador (9/2 Ladbrokes) 

Champions League 2012/13 - Verdict

They’ve only got 4 points in 4 games, lie 8 points off the lead at home with their manager calling their latest performance clueless and haven’t won the trophy for 10 years, so it will surprise some to see me calling Real Madrid fantastic value for Champions League glory, but the trophy’s not won in September and there’s a ton of reasons to think Jose Mourinho can seal his place in footballing legend and take the Champions League with a third different club this year.

A run of 5 defeats at the last 16 stage had represented a significant mental hurdle for Los Blancos to pass but the return of Jose Mourinhio has changed everything and in the last two season they’ve won a trophy alongside a semi-final, beating arch rivals Barcelona on both occasions to seal triumphs in the Copa Del Rey and La Liga respectively. The merit of those triumphs is massive considering the mental importance that beating Barcelona in this competition represents – since 2006/07 any team that has beaten Barcelona over two legs has gone onto win the competition – and they finally look ready to take the glory for themselves. Too stoic and defensive when Pepe’s red card turned the tie in Barcelona’s favour two years ago, and a touch too wasteful when going down to an excellent Bayern side last year only on penalties, it can be third time lucky for a team that has only improved since the arrival of The Special one.

Having the manager is one thing but the personnel is a crucial part and only Barcelona can claim to having an equally talented squad. Iker Casillas, Sergio Ramos and Pepe were three of the outstanding players at Euro 2012 for teams that reached at least the semi-finals (Spain didn’t let a goal in past the Group stage for the third successive tournament), while Alvaro Arbeloa too played his part in the Spainsh triumph. Marcelo divides opinion but he’s a class act going forward and his wing back qualities are essential to the team’s attacking depth.

Their midfield can now arguably be put on the same level as Barcelona with Xabi Alonso, Mesut Ozil and Sami Khedira usually operating in a triangle which now has Luka Modric fighting for a place, highlighting the depth in the squad. Michael Essien may also be a shrewd free signing to provide backup cover – certainly he’s not totally finished yet – and Kaka still has something to offer if they should give him a chance to shine that he’s been denied for so very long.  An attack which centres around the phenomenal Cristiano Ronaldo can also boast Karim Benzema and Gonzalo Higuain, while Jose Callejon is a phenomenal talent who can’t even get a game in such a talented side and Angel Di Maria is as good as anyone in world football cutting in from the wings.

Madrid last won in 2002 – who’d have thought that would be the last time they’d get their hands on the trophy? – when Zidane, Luis Figo and Roberto Carlos were lighting up the world stage before the barren period between 2005-2010 where they fell at the elusive hurdle that was be the last 16 in five straight seasons, but after 2 successive semi-finals in the last two years they now look ready to finally take the stage and make it a glorious 10 titles this year. A tough group with Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax has seen them drift a little but there’s less of a gap between them and Barcelona than ever before – they romped La Liga in no uncertain terms and could have had at least 3 more in the second leg of the Supercup when they overturned a 1^st leg deficit to win on away goals and they’re the clear choice at 9/2.

Barcelona have to be hugely respected and I couldn’t’ put anyone off them at 11/4. Widely considered to be one of the greatest sides of all time, they have won the competition three times and also got into three semi-finals since 2006 and any team that’s beaten them has gone onto win it, underlining their dominance on the European stage. They should have beaten Chelsea home and away last year but were only just edged out due to a combination of poor finishing and bad luck on their part and look sure to be at least at the semis once again.

At full flow they’re one of the best sights in sport and they’ve won the competition each year after failing to win it since 2007-08 (when the eventual winners United knocked them out), while the departure of Pep Guardiola isn’t too big a concern for a squad of such talent. Tito Villanova’s record in La Liga reads 4 wins from 4 games so far and the same key names which have made them famous are still there at their peak. Messi – who scored an incredible 72 times for club and country last season and has started off with six goals already- Iniesta and Xavi are still as good as ever and the little tweaks that are Alex Song and Jordi Alba should help keep things ticking over nicely at the Camp Nou.

The return of David Villa after nearly a year off with a broken leg is a heartening sight not just for football coinsessurs but also the Catalan faithful as his out and out striking ability gives them the touch of extra dimension needed to break down stubborn sides and they couldn’t have him back soon enough. We like Madrid much more than them but the 11/10 on any Spainish winner could prove to be a very smart way of covering our backs given the tournament record, while it also has Malaga and Valencia as “free bets” so to speak.

If the big two turn up on form then challenging them should be almost impossible but Serie A Champions Juventus might be the smart call at a whopping 20/1, back on the big stage for the first time since 2008/09. Not only have they kept the same squad that took them towards last season’s title, butThe arrival of Udinese startlets Mauricio Isla and Kwadwo Asamoah is a huge boost for them not only in terms of potential goals but also the quality of service in attack that the Biaconeri have. They drew a staggering 15 games last year on their way to the title but have tons more firepower this time around with those two on the wings and Nicklas Bendnter upfront. Some may laugh, but when the Dane shows his best form he can be a headache for anyone, as he showed at the Euros, and if motivated then it’s not hard to see him being the focal point of their attack, or at least better than Alessandro Matri, who scored just 10 goals last year.

But the real highlight of Juve is their defence. They conceded a staggering 20 goals last season thanks to an uber solid back 4 of Leonardo Bonucci, Giogio Chillni, Andrea Barzagil and Stefan Lichensteiner, ably protected by the stoic and solid Sebastian Giovinco,and with the wily old Gianlugigi Buffon still in goal, they are as hard as any side to break down in Europe, and we all know how solid defences are so important against the European elite in the latter stages of the competition these days.

Getting out of a group which contains Chelsea and Shaktar Donesk will be no easy matter but the way in which they’ve stormed to three straight Serie A wins suggests that they can handle themselves at the top level and are playing at least as well as last season. With the attacking threat from last season at least doubled, and confidence at a real high, there looks to be a ton of mileage in a price of 20/1.

No country has as strong a recent record as England in this competition but they may just fall short this season. Chelsea lucked out in winning the competition last year but people foreget that they’d been more than owed a few breaks after the last few years – Tom Henning Overbo’s name is still considered blasphemy around Stamford Bridge – and they’re in the strange position of trying to retain their title with a stronger side (at the very least in an attacking sense) having embarked upon one of the biggest spending sprees they’ve had in a long while, bringing in Eden Hazard for £32 million, Oscar for £24 million, and Marko Marin for what could prove to be a relatively cheap looking £7 million if he lives upto his earlier potential from Werder Bremen.

Hazard – often seen as one of the world’s most promising players at Lille – scored 20 goals for Lille last season (just one less than Giroud) and also chipped in with a sensational 15 assists – while he’s able to play as winger or a second striker, which is immensely important in terms of versatility. Oscar looked exceptional at times during the Olympics and will be crucial figure in the centre of midfield. Juan Mata is one of the best midfielders in the Premiership already – his figure of 13 assists last season was one behind David Silva – so he should be mightily relieved to have two other players on his level to share responsibilities for distribution to a happier Fernando Torres than last season at the least.

However there’s no questioning that they were lucky winners and it’s hard to see them beating either Spanish giant again over two legs while it will be interesting to see how a more open tactical side deals with the latter stages from a defensive point of view. They should launch a bold bid but find one or two good at least.

The Manchester Clubs were dominant like never before in the Premiership last season when finishing 19 points clear but both have significant problems holding them back this season. United have signed Shinji Kagawa and Robin Van Persie to give tremendous firepower to an already attacking team that just loves to get forward but a leaky defence cost them badly last year and those problems haven’t been addressed this season, with a lack of balance in midfield and between defence and attack likely to leave them incredibly vulnerable during the latter stages of the competition.

For many – on paper at least – City have the stronger first XI and squad, and their spine of Yaya Toure, David Silva, Vincent Kompany, Joe Hart and Sergio Aguero is arguably the strongest in England, and a brutal combination of players for any team to possess. While Mancini was lucky with injuries last year, he can still count on a number of strong additions, with his striking power unrivalled given how Balotelli, Dzeko, Aguero, and the rejuvenated Carlos Tevez.

Yaya Toure is a bulldozer of a midfielder who has sublime skill for his size and was crucial in breaking down defences last season – his importance will be heightened with so many teams sure to play for a point at Eastlands this season – David Silva is as good as any midfielder outside of Spain’s big two at the moment, with his 15 assists and 6 goals from last season proving just as crucial as Aguero’s strikes.

Their defence is the best in the division with Kompany – one of the world’s outstanding centre backs – at the heart of a rock solid team, and for all that nobody in the back 4 can call themselves on his level, Lescott and Zabaleta are not at all bad and even Gael Clichy seems an improved player on the model that cost Arsenal so often, so it’s easy to see why they’re just 10/1 for glory. However they were lacking when upto this level last season and have landed a group that’s just as bad once again, so will have to be at their best from day. If they out of the group they have to be feared but I’d much rather take a reduced price on them after the group stages. They should have improved from their first outing in this division last year but there’s not going to be a Villarreal in this group for them to get 4 points from with ease and they had the luxury of Bayern Munich resting players on the last matchday.

Arsenal have a wonderful midfield headed by the brilliant Santi Cazorla – who has been simply superb so far – while Lukas Podolski’s two goals are a massive boost for a midfielder who can be world class on his day but has struggled away from Cologne in the past. Jack Wilshere will be present for the last 16 if they make it there and Abou Diaby has been in top form of late but there’s a worry that they just aren’t good enough against the elite of Europe as was shown last year by AC Milan.

Milan did that demolition job with the services of Zaltan Ibrahimovic and Thaigo Silva, but both have now been sold to PSG, who in turn have been chopped into just 20/1 off the back of yet more heavy spending. Milan lack the firepower upfront to deliver a proper challenge –while their defence may leak later in the competition – and PSG might need another year or two before they can think of winning it, and the same goes for Zenit, who have a diabolical record on the road in this competition.

Borussia Dortmund are interesting because we know they’re just so much better than last year’s dreadful showing and they have the tools to back up their talent – Mats Hummels and Neven Subortic are a top quality pair of defenders – while Mario Gotze, Marco Reus, Ivan Persic and Jackub Blascikowski are top quality players, although I feel much the same way about them as I do Manchester City – they have to get through the group first of all.

Rivals Bayern Munich might be value at 14/1 to right the wrongs of last year, where they came agonisingly close to winning the trophy only to deny themselves glory through a string of missed Mario Gomez chances last year when they dominated the final after knocking out Real Madrid. Convincing winners of the group of death last year when brushing aside Napoli and Manchester City in style, they were undoubtedly the most impressive side barring the big two last year and have one again splashed the cash in a bid to make it a special 5 European Cups.

The arrival of Swiss winger Xherdan Shaqiri, Brazilian defender Danté from Gladbach and the two strikers Claudio Pizarro from Werder and Mario Mandzukic from Wolfsburg just bolster up and already attacking rich squad which already boasted the core of the German national side that has made the semi-finals at least of their last three major tournaments.

Less reliance on Mario Gomez – who suffered big time stage freeze in the final after such a successful tournament during which he scored 12 goals – can only be a good thing and Sahiqiri can fill in for one of Robben or Ribery, two of the world’s best wingers on their day. Javi Martinez was an eyewatering amount of money from Bilbao but you can’t deny his talents bolster their midfield as well and everything looks set for yet another big run at this competition.

Advice

5 pts Real Madrid (9/2 general)

6 pts Any Spanish winner (11/10 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Bayern Munich (14/1 Bet Victor)

1 pt Juventus (20/1 Hills, Ladbrokes)

UCI World Road Championships - Team Time Trial

The UCI World Road Championships looks set to bookend what’s been a remarkable year for Cycling and the team time trial – making a comeback – is an ideal way to kick things off over the beautiful and hilly hills of Limburg. There are a number of talented time triaists at the moment which have led to some very talented squads turning up to fight it out but few can match the class of Omega Pharma Quickstep, who were on course to  win the opening Team Time Trial at the Vuelta but for having Tony Martin and Zyndnek Zybar led the wrong way by a race motorbike. The team had been fastest at the 8.1km checkpoint, just short of halfway through the 16.5km course, but ended it just behind the Dutch team. Movistar blasted them all out of the way at the time but their squad is weaker and there’s no guarantees that they’d have won if Omega Pharma had kept on course.

National TT champions Kristof Vandewalle (Belgium), Sylvain Chavanel (France) and Peter Velits (Slovakia) with Niki Terpstra and the in-form Tom Boonen all oint world champion Tony Martin, and they should have very high expectations of themselves this afternoon with a price of 2/1 looking like a very solid shout.

Advice

4 pts Omega Pharma Quickstep (2/1 general)

Rugby Championship - Australia v Argentina

This is Argentina’s first appearance in the Rugby Championship but the only thing we’re asking is why that’s the case after their impressive performances against South Africa in Mendoza and New Zealand and their chances of winning are significantly bigger than odds of 11/2 would suggest for today’s crunch encounter at the Gold Coast.

The Pumas have generally been superb barring a heavy defeat away to South Africa, holding the Boks in Mendoza and then pushing New Zealand a lot harder than a score of 21-5 suggested, having led 6-5 for a long period of the game before drawing away steadily in the second half. Argentina's aggression at the breakdown and in defence gave New Zealand a whole host of problems and while the conditions in Wellington – wet and windy – helped them no end for the first period, they were still in the game before the sin-binning of blindside flanker Julio Farias Cabello for slapping the ball down, and they had an attacking spell of their own before the end too which may have gone unnoticed.

Put simply, Australia aren’t in the same parish as New Zealand and a similar test could really give them problems this time around. Robbie Deans has a strong winning record in his brief time but that could so easily be different, with Wales unlucky not to have won all three tests in midsummer while they were roundly hammered by New Zealand on an even larger scale than they were In the World Cup semi. They did rally from 7 points down to beat South Africa but were flattered by the scoreline given the string of missed penalties that the Boks had after failing to make the best of their first half dominance, and they have yet another crushing injury blow with Will Genia will miss the remainder of the Rugby Championship and will be sidelined for at least six months after rupturing the ACL in his right knee last week. With Pocock and Howill absent, Genia was the best creative influence left in the side and his absence could have a big effect upon the performance of Quade Cooper especially, which in turn hurts the creative spine of a team that has scored just five tries in their past five matches.  

They may be outgunned upfront, as they have been by many top international sides in recent years, with Lobbe (arguably one of the best players of the Championship so far) and Roncero giving huge grunt to the pack and the scrums, while better conditions should help them to be more effective in the lineout. Berrick Barnes’s superb boot should see them come home infront according to the layers, but it might be a very testing affair for them and a handicap of 14 points looks to be an excellent start for the visitors, along with the first half start of 6 also looking like value given how strongly the pumas tend to start. And last but not least, Australia to win by 1-5 points looks far too big at a tasty 8/1 to ignore.

Advice

4 pts Argentina +14 (10/11 Stan James)

1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (8/1 Sportingbet) 

Rugby Championship - New Zealand v South Africa

They say that good things come to those who wait but Henke Meyer might fast be losing the patience of Springbok fans and his South Africa side could slump to a heavy loss against a rampant New Zealand side in Dunedin.

The main thorn in the side of Springbok loyals seems to be the one dimensional nature of South African play, something developed by the immensely powerful and successful Peter De Villiers outfit which won a World Cup, old Tri Nations and Lions series between 2007-2010. However times have changed and the recent problem is now a simple one – scoring enough points. The South Africa of old was dominated by a huge pack which could prevent the best attacks in world rugby from reaching the tryline, allowing for the Springboks’s kicking or forward game to seal the deal.

Meyer still has a classy side – as was shown by South Africa’s World Cup exploits where they were really unlucky not to make the semis against New Zealand – but players like Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha have been leaving for some time and this changing of the guard hasn’t quite had the reaction in playing style properly needed from Meyer in this Rugby championship.

Fly half Morne Steyn’s (left) form has been hit and miss in this year compared to his brilliant past, which is clearly having an effect on tight games, while a lack of forward imagination cost them drear in the 16-16 draw at Argentina and the 26-19 loss to Australia, who were second best for long periods of that game.

South Africa were the last team to beat New Zealand in New Zealand but that defeat remains the last time the All Blacks lost at home and they have gone on to record 22 consecutive home victories since, averaging around about 30 points scored per win. With the Dundein stadium extremely conducive towards running rugby, a similar score can be expected, so a home win by 11-20 points seems like a fair shout with South Africa sure to try and put up a bold defensive showing although they offer too little in attack to have a real threat. In the first Tryscorer markets, Isreal Dagg – who has two in three against the Boks and is likely to get kicked at by Zane Kirchener while being supported by Savea and Jane ammunition – makes appeal at 11/1 with Boylesports.

Advice

2 pts New Zealand to win by 1-12 points (23/10 Paddy Power)

1 pt Israel Dagg 1^st Tryscorer (11/1 Boylesports) 

Vuelta A Espana - Stage 21 (Cercedilla - Madrid)

Excitement, Crashes, Attack after attack, fans lining every inch of the route and several epic finale’s on brilliant climbs. This year’s Vuelta has had it all and while Joaquin Rodriguez – the outstanding rider of the tour in my eyes – sadly couldn’t bring home a hugely deserved fourth Grand Tour at the age of 33 after his stage 17 blowout. He did return place money for us however, and the top 3 banker bet has returned handsomely, which covers our own stakes well.

 

Today’s stage is a short, flat procession ride which will see the riders tackle 10 laps of a 5.7km finishing circuit based on the Plaza de Cibeles on the Paseo del Prado, aptly where Real Maadrid celebrate successes. Contador – now an extremely strong favourite for next year’s Tour De France –will be crowned Champion ahead of Valverde and Purito.

Before that there’s the last real stage, which is one for the sprinters and one that should be a bunch sprint with plenty motivated enough to do so – Team Sky, with Froome’s fourth safe, have yet to win a Stage of the tour so far and Ben Swift has come close on two occasions, so he must be in line for a big leadout today – while John Degenkolb’s Argos Shimano team have been incredible in propelling him to four stage wins so far. That may well have been 5 had the winds not played a large part on Stage 18 in splitting him and his Argos Shimano team from Davis, Swift and Daniele Bennati (pictured), and at even money he can finish our Vuelta in style. The biggest challengers to him have been Davis, Swift (who has improved over the course of the Tour to his credit after coming in for some stick here) and Bennanti, who was hugely deserving of his own stage win on 17. Adept at finding the gaps in sprints so far, he’s been one of the most consistent so far and is an excellent saver at 6/1 with Sportingbet.

Advice

3 pts John Degenkolb (evs general)

1 pt Daniele Bennati (6/1 Sportingbet)  

Italian Grand Prix 2012

They say a week is a long time in Sport and for Lewis Hamilton that saying will rarely have been more true than this of all weeks. Out of the race at the first corner and out of favour with the McLaren team, with a strong midweek rumour that he wanted to drive for Mercedes , he now starts today’s Grand Prix in Monza an odds on shot for victory with team mate Jenson button on the other side of the front row. How things change.

Following a blistering leadup towards qualifying and then the race – Hamilton was over a tenth clear of Button – those quotes look very hard to argue with today, and the fact that 6 of the last 10 Grands Prix here have been won from pole, 10-11 is more than fair for those who think Hamilton is a banker. Button too can’t be discounted given his excellent driving of late and the fact he’s got a car worthy of his own talent after a dreadful middle season, and the 4/6 for either Brit is not one I can argue with, for all that there are other options preferred this afternoon.

Mclaren’s recent improvement is in stark improvement to that of Red Bull, who are struggling for straight line speed badly this year since Valencia after technical issues with the FIA and their own cars, but they received a big boost when Vettel and Webber were second and sixth last time out at Spa despite less than helpful grid positions. Whatever one thinks of the advantage they’ve had for their cars, the two drivers have proven again and again that they’re capable of doing it on their own and 7/10 for both to finish in the points looks well worth taking, with Webber (a dab hand at improving his position over a race) in 11^th and Vettel already nestled in 5^th thanks to Paul Di Resta’s grid penalty. Di Resta and Hulkenberg’s car has improved a lot over this season and a double points finish at 11/2 with Ladbrokes looks far too big.

Ferrari have a lot of work to do thanks to the mechanical problem that Fernando Alonso suffered at the beginning of Q3 but they should be confident of a big showing as Massa – comfortably the weaker of the two drivers despite his small renaissance this season – was third in the grid and he was less than a tenth behind Hamilton on two other occasions. More value lies in taking the 8/11 on Kimi Rakkonen for a top 6 finish – something he’s achieved on 8 occasions this season. The Lotus has been excellent over the race this season and crucially will have the track extremely hot, which is crucial to the setup of the Lotus.  In Hot conditions Lotus were second and third in Bahrain and Kimi Raikkonen finishing second last time out in Valencia after Grosjean retired when well placed for victory.

Advice

5 pts Red Bull double points finish (7/10 Bwin)

2 pts Kimi Rakkionen top 6 finish (8/11 general)

1 pt Force India double points finish (11/2 Ladbrokes)