They say a week is a long time in Sport and for Lewis Hamilton that saying will rarely have been more true than this of all weeks. Out of the race at the first corner and out of favour with the McLaren team, with a strong midweek rumour that he wanted to drive for Mercedes , he now starts today’s Grand Prix in Monza an odds on shot for victory with team mate Jenson button on the other side of the front row. How things change.
Following a blistering leadup towards qualifying and then the race – Hamilton was over a tenth clear of Button – those quotes look very hard to argue with today, and the fact that 6 of the last 10 Grands Prix here have been won from pole, 10-11 is more than fair for those who think Hamilton is a banker. Button too can’t be discounted given his excellent driving of late and the fact he’s got a car worthy of his own talent after a dreadful middle season, and the 4/6 for either Brit is not one I can argue with, for all that there are other options preferred this afternoon.
Mclaren’s recent improvement is in stark improvement to that of Red Bull, who are struggling for straight line speed badly this year since Valencia after technical issues with the FIA and their own cars, but they received a big boost when Vettel and Webber were second and sixth last time out at Spa despite less than helpful grid positions. Whatever one thinks of the advantage they’ve had for their cars, the two drivers have proven again and again that they’re capable of doing it on their own and 7/10 for both to finish in the points looks well worth taking, with Webber (a dab hand at improving his position over a race) in 11th and Vettel already nestled in 5th thanks to Paul Di Resta’s grid penalty. Di Resta and Hulkenberg’s car has improved a lot over this season and a double points finish at 11/2 with Ladbrokes looks far too big.
Ferrari have a lot of work to do thanks to the mechanical problem that Fernando Alonso suffered at the beginning of Q3 but they should be confident of a big showing as Massa – comfortably the weaker of the two drivers despite his small renaissance this season – was third in the grid and he was less than a tenth behind Hamilton on two other occasions. More value lies in taking the 8/11 on Kimi Rakkonen for a top 6 finish – something he’s achieved on 8 occasions this season. The Lotus has been excellent over the race this season and crucially will have the track extremely hot, which is crucial to the setup of the Lotus. In Hot conditions Lotus were second and third in Bahrain and Kimi Raikkonen finishing second last time out in Valencia after Grosjean retired when well placed for victory.
Advice
5 pts Red Bull double points finish (7/10 Bwin)
2 pts Kimi Rakkionen top 6 finish (8/11 general)
1 pt Force India double points finish (11/2 Ladbrokes)
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