A quite terrific year of Cycling comes to an end – with only
minor UCI Tour events to go – when the men take off for the Elite Road Race in
the World Championship. Often a difficult event to predict – barring last year’s
sprint finish where the course allowed for it - this year’s parcours is one of
the most competitive yet.
The main decider is the Cauberg, renowned for its prominent role
in the Amstel Gold Race, used in both the TTT and ITT so far this week, used 10
times with a maximum gradient of 12%, part of a leg sapping 265km, which also
features 7 short and sharp climbs beforehand over the 100km loop through the province
of Limburg, before part two sees us take in winding Bemelerberg (900m with a
max gradient of 7%) and the game-changing Cauberg (1.5km with an average
gradient of 5.8%), all used 10 times.
To start with finding the winner, the first thing to be done
is to exclude the pure sprinters. There may be a 1.7KM flat section to the
finish but the sheer amount of climbing done is enough to discount them, with
the flat section coming after the 10th use of the Cauberg. The
second is to be looking for riders who have a strong record in the Ardennes
classics – long races which take in climbing and sprinting, usually like the
Amstel Gold, La Fleche Walonne, and Liege Bastogne-Liege – as they bear the
most similarities towards a race like today’s instead of pure sprint or
mountain stages.
Second is the team strategy and team strength. Mark
Cavendish’s victory last year was down to huge amount of work from team GB on
the front of the Peloton, and all this had been planned for a good year beforehand
(‘Operation Rainbow Jersey’).
Taking all this into account, it’s easy to see why Philippe
Gilbert, a two time winner of the Amstel Gold, one of two winners of all three
spring classics – and numerous stage races across the world, is a heavy
favourite. Gilbert has had a troubled year, yet still won two stages of the
Vuelta a Espana with relative ease, beating off a talented cross section of
sprinters and punchers including Alejandro Valverde on Stage 19. After an
incredible year which brought 18 wins, he’d suffered a huge loss of form and
condition, but a successful attack on Stage 9 of the Vuelta was just the tonic.
His Belgian team is one of the strongest in the race – De Weert, Devenyns,
Meersman, Vansummer, Rolendants, and Boonen if he decided to ride in the team –
so the 3/1 avlaible on him winning is fair, if not a little short.
Peter Sagan, a relatively unknown sprinter a couple of years
ago, has undoubtedly been one of the highlights of the Tour De France this year
with his three stage wins, but he’s got the attitude and skills needed for
classics as well. We’ve already seen him on steep uphill climbs, we know he can
break, and we know he can outsprint everyone here if it comes down to a bunch
sprint, but he’s lost some of the condition that he’d held from his Tour De
France exploits by his own admission and does look a touch short.
It’s 10/1 the field bar them, and Alejandro Valverde (far left) looks
to be a solid wager at a general 10/1. Second in the Vuelta A Espana this year,
Valverde lost a lot of time in the red jersey after crashing early on Stage 3
but was rarely not seen on the finish of a stage afterwards, including relatively
flat ending to stages 9, 17, 19, and 21,
and as a three time medallist here, he looks like a very solid shout to lead
the Spainish challenge and claim his first rainbow jersey today. The Spainish
team – most of which may well be riding in support of him- is just incredibly
strong with Contador, Rodrgiuez, Friere, Moreno, Sanchez, Flecha and Castroviejo
all potentially in support – while we know he’s capable of attacking hard up a
climb and sprinting on the flat, so 10/1 – especially with Brefred offering 4
places at ¼ the odds and 9/4 for a medal seem generous. 
Simon Gerrans - fourth in the GP De Montreal when
trying to follow up from his Québec win -has nothing like the support that
Valverde can count upon but his punchy style – a win at the Milan-San Remo is a
testament to his ability while he does have Porte, Rogers and Clarke supporting
him, so he is worth having in the portfolio both win and place. The Australian
team has secured a place on the world championship podium for the last three
years, so we have a team with a proven track record 
If we’re talking about puncheurs, then the one man who comes
to mind instantly has to be Thomas Voeckler. One of the most popular riders in
World Cycling, Voeckler was one of the highlights of this year’s Tour De France
with his ultra-attacking style and heart on his sleeve mentality, and has had
the whole of the French team (barring Jerome Coppel, who is in the break ) to
help his cause.
Manager Laurent Jalabert has used his full allocation just
to create a team that’s set completely around him, which could prove to be a
wise move given how well we know Vockler can handle the most brutal stages of
the Tour, while he also has a strong classics profile. Fourth and fifth in
Amstel Gold and Liege Bastone Liege, he could be massively overpriced at 20’s
having talent a real interest in the event.
Advice
1 pt each/way Alejandro Valverde (10/1 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Simon Gerrans (16/1 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Thomas Vockeler (25/1 Betfred)
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