They’ve only got 4 points in 4 games, lie 8 points off the
lead at home with their manager calling their latest performance clueless and
haven’t won the trophy for 10 years, so it will surprise some to see me calling
Real Madrid fantastic value for Champions League glory, but the trophy’s not
won in September and there’s a ton of reasons to think Jose Mourinho can seal
his place in footballing legend and take the Champions League with a third
different club this year.
A run of 5 defeats at the last 16 stage had represented a significant
mental hurdle for Los Blancos to pass but the return of Jose Mourinhio has
changed everything and in the last two season they’ve won a trophy alongside a semi-final,
beating arch rivals Barcelona on both occasions to seal triumphs in the Copa
Del Rey and La Liga respectively. The merit of those triumphs is massive
considering the mental importance that beating Barcelona in this competition
represents – since 2006/07 any team that has beaten Barcelona over two legs has
gone onto win the competition – and they finally look ready to take the glory
for themselves. Too stoic and defensive when Pepe’s red card turned the tie in
Barcelona’s favour two years ago, and a touch too wasteful when going down to
an excellent Bayern side last year only on penalties, it can be third time
lucky for a team that has only improved since the arrival of The Special one.
Having the manager is one thing but the personnel is a
crucial part and only Barcelona can claim to having an equally talented squad.
Iker Casillas, Sergio Ramos and Pepe were three of the outstanding players at
Euro 2012 for teams that reached at least the semi-finals (Spain didn’t let a
goal in past the Group stage for the third successive tournament), while Alvaro
Arbeloa too played his part in the Spainsh triumph. Marcelo divides opinion but
he’s a class act going forward and his wing back qualities are essential to the
team’s attacking depth.
Their midfield can now arguably be put on the same level as
Barcelona with Xabi Alonso, Mesut Ozil and Sami Khedira usually operating in a
triangle which now has Luka Modric fighting for a place, highlighting the depth
in the squad. Michael Essien may also be a shrewd free signing to provide
backup cover – certainly he’s not totally finished yet – and Kaka still has
something to offer if they should give him a chance to shine that he’s been
denied for so very long. An attack which
centres around the phenomenal Cristiano Ronaldo can also boast Karim Benzema
and Gonzalo Higuain, while Jose Callejon is a phenomenal talent who can’t even
get a game in such a talented side and Angel Di Maria is as good as anyone in
world football cutting in from the wings.
Madrid last won in 2002 – who’d have thought that would be
the last time they’d get their hands on the trophy? – when Zidane, Luis Figo
and Roberto Carlos were lighting up the world stage before the barren period
between 2005-2010 where they fell at the elusive hurdle that was be the last 16
in five straight seasons, but after 2 successive semi-finals in the last two
years they now look ready to finally take the stage and make it a glorious 10
titles this year. A tough group with Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund and
Ajax has seen them drift a little but there’s less of a gap between them and
Barcelona than ever before – they romped La Liga in no uncertain terms and
could have had at least 3 more in the second leg of the Supercup when they overturned
a 1st leg deficit to win on away goals and they’re the clear choice
at 9/2.
Barcelona have to be hugely respected and I couldn’t’ put
anyone off them at 11/4. Widely considered to be one of the greatest sides of
all time, they have won the competition three times and also got into three
semi-finals since 2006 and any team that’s beaten them has gone onto win it,
underlining their dominance on the European stage. They should have beaten
Chelsea home and away last year but were only just edged out due to a
combination of poor finishing and bad luck on their part and look sure to be at
least at the semis once again.
At full flow they’re one of the best sights in sport and
they’ve won the competition each year after failing to win it since 2007-08
(when the eventual winners United knocked them out), while the departure of Pep
Guardiola isn’t too big a concern for a squad of such talent. Tito Villanova’s
record in La Liga reads 4 wins from 4 games so far and the same key names which
have made them famous are still there at their peak. Messi – who scored an
incredible 72 times for club and country last season and has started off with
six goals already- Iniesta and Xavi are still as good as ever and the little tweaks
that are Alex Song and Jordi Alba should help keep things ticking over nicely
at the Camp Nou.
The return of David Villa after nearly a year off with a
broken leg is a heartening sight not just for football coinsessurs but also the
Catalan faithful as his out and out striking ability gives them the touch of
extra dimension needed to break down stubborn sides and they couldn’t have him
back soon enough. We like Madrid much more than them but the 11/10 on any
Spainish winner could prove to be a very smart way of covering our backs given
the tournament record, while it also has Malaga and Valencia as “free bets” so
to speak.
If the big two turn up on form then challenging them should
be almost impossible but Serie A Champions Juventus might be the smart call at a
whopping 20/1, back on the big stage for the first time since 2008/09. Not only
have they kept the same squad that took them towards last season’s title, butThe
arrival of Udinese startlets Mauricio Isla and Kwadwo Asamoah is a huge boost
for them not only in terms of potential goals but also the quality of service in
attack that the Biaconeri have. They drew a staggering 15 games last year on
their way to the title but have tons more firepower this time around with those
two on the wings and Nicklas Bendnter upfront. Some may laugh, but when the
Dane shows his best form he can be a headache for anyone, as he showed at the
Euros, and if motivated then it’s not hard to see him being the focal point of
their attack, or at least better than Alessandro Matri, who scored just 10
goals last year. 
But the real highlight of Juve is their defence. They
conceded a staggering 20 goals last season thanks to an uber solid back 4 of Leonardo
Bonucci, Giogio Chillni, Andrea Barzagil and Stefan Lichensteiner, ably
protected by the stoic and solid Sebastian Giovinco,and with the wily old Gianlugigi
Buffon still in goal, they are as hard as any side to break down in Europe, and
we all know how solid defences are so important against the European elite in
the latter stages of the competition these days.
Getting out of a group which contains Chelsea and Shaktar
Donesk will be no easy matter but the way in which they’ve stormed to three
straight Serie A wins suggests that they can handle themselves at the top level
and are playing at least as well as last season. With the attacking threat from
last season at least doubled, and confidence at a real high, there looks to be a
ton of mileage in a price of 20/1.
No country has as strong a recent record as England in this competition
but they may just fall short this season. Chelsea lucked out in winning the
competition last year but people foreget that they’d been more than owed a few
breaks after the last few years – Tom Henning Overbo’s name is still considered
blasphemy around Stamford Bridge – and they’re in the strange position of
trying to retain their title with a stronger side (at the very least in an attacking
sense) having embarked upon one of the biggest spending sprees they’ve had in a
long while, bringing in Eden Hazard for £32 million, Oscar for £24 million, and
Marko Marin for what could prove to be a relatively cheap looking £7 million if
he lives upto his earlier potential from Werder Bremen.
Hazard – often seen as one of the world’s most promising
players at Lille – scored 20 goals for Lille last season (just one less than
Giroud) and also chipped in with a sensational 15 assists – while he’s able to
play as winger or a second striker, which is immensely important in terms of
versatility. Oscar looked exceptional at times during the Olympics and will be
crucial figure in the centre of midfield. Juan Mata is one of the best
midfielders in the Premiership already – his figure of 13 assists last season
was one behind David Silva – so he should be mightily relieved to have two
other players on his level to share responsibilities for distribution to a
happier Fernando Torres than last season at the least.
However there’s no questioning that they were lucky winners
and it’s hard to see them beating either Spanish giant again over two legs
while it will be interesting to see how a more open tactical side deals with
the latter stages from a defensive point of view. They should launch a bold bid
but find one or two good at least.
The Manchester Clubs were dominant like never before in the
Premiership last season when finishing 19 points clear but both have significant
problems holding them back this season. United have signed Shinji Kagawa and
Robin Van Persie to give tremendous firepower to an already attacking team that
just loves to get forward but a leaky defence cost them badly last year and
those problems haven’t been addressed this season, with a lack of balance in
midfield and between defence and attack likely to leave them incredibly vulnerable
during the latter stages of the competition.
For many – on paper at least – City have the stronger first
XI and squad, and their spine of Yaya Toure, David Silva, Vincent Kompany, Joe
Hart and Sergio Aguero is arguably the strongest in England, and a brutal
combination of players for any team to possess. While Mancini was lucky with
injuries last year, he can still count on a number of strong additions, with
his striking power unrivalled given how Balotelli, Dzeko, Aguero, and the rejuvenated
Carlos Tevez.
Yaya Toure is a bulldozer of a midfielder who has sublime
skill for his size and was crucial in breaking down defences last season – his
importance will be heightened with so many teams sure to play for a point at
Eastlands this season – David Silva is as good as any midfielder outside of
Spain’s big two at the moment, with his 15 assists and 6 goals from last season
proving just as crucial as Aguero’s strikes.
Their defence is the best in the division with Kompany – one
of the world’s outstanding centre backs – at the heart of a rock solid team,
and for all that nobody in the back 4 can call themselves on his level, Lescott
and Zabaleta are not at all bad and even Gael Clichy seems an improved player
on the model that cost Arsenal so often, so it’s easy to see why they’re just
10/1 for glory. However they were lacking when upto this level last season and
have landed a group that’s just as bad once again, so will have to be at their
best from day. If they out of the group they have to be feared but I’d much
rather take a reduced price on them after the group stages. They should have
improved from their first outing in this division last year but there’s not
going to be a Villarreal in this group for them to get 4 points from with ease
and they had the luxury of Bayern Munich resting players on the last matchday.
Arsenal have a wonderful midfield headed by the brilliant Santi
Cazorla – who has been simply superb so far – while Lukas Podolski’s two goals
are a massive boost for a midfielder who can be world class on his day but has struggled
away from Cologne in the past. Jack Wilshere will be present for the last 16 if
they make it there and Abou Diaby has been in top form of late but there’s a
worry that they just aren’t good enough against the elite of Europe as was
shown last year by AC Milan.
Milan did that demolition job with the services of Zaltan
Ibrahimovic and Thaigo Silva, but both have now been sold to PSG, who in turn
have been chopped into just 20/1 off the back of yet more heavy spending. Milan
lack the firepower upfront to deliver a proper challenge –while their defence
may leak later in the competition – and PSG might need another year or two
before they can think of winning it, and the same goes for Zenit, who have a diabolical
record on the road in this competition.
Borussia Dortmund are interesting because we know they’re
just so much better than last year’s dreadful showing and they have the tools to
back up their talent – Mats Hummels and Neven Subortic are a top quality pair
of defenders – while Mario Gotze, Marco Reus, Ivan Persic and Jackub
Blascikowski are top quality players, although I feel much the same way about
them as I do Manchester City – they have to get through the group first of all.
Rivals Bayern Munich might be value at 14/1 to right the
wrongs of last year, where they came agonisingly close to winning the trophy
only to deny themselves glory through a string of missed Mario Gomez chances
last year when they dominated the final after knocking out Real Madrid. Convincing
winners of the group of death last year when brushing aside Napoli and
Manchester City in style, they were undoubtedly the most impressive side
barring the big two last year and have one again splashed the cash in a bid to
make it a special 5 European Cups.
The arrival of Swiss winger Xherdan Shaqiri, Brazilian
defender Danté from Gladbach and the two strikers Claudio Pizarro from Werder
and Mario Mandzukic from Wolfsburg just bolster up and already attacking rich
squad which already boasted the core of the German national side that has made
the semi-finals at least of their last three major tournaments.
Less reliance on Mario Gomez – who suffered big time stage
freeze in the final after such a successful tournament during which he scored
12 goals – can only be a good thing and Sahiqiri can fill in for one of Robben
or Ribery, two of the world’s best wingers on their day. Javi Martinez was an
eyewatering amount of money from Bilbao but you can’t deny his talents bolster
their midfield as well and everything looks set for yet another big run at this
competition.
Advice
5 pts Real Madrid (9/2 general)
6 pts Any Spanish winner (11/10 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Bayern Munich (14/1 Bet Victor)
1 pt Juventus (20/1 Hills, Ladbrokes)
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