Despite three Grand Slams in the last 8 years Wales have
arguably never had more potential and with a top 4 IRB Rankings spot up from
grabs and a Northern Hemisphere World Cup in sight – much like the other
nations –make no mistake, this is one of the most crucial months in recent
years for Wales. Often impressive and then flattering to deceive, the remarkable
progress made by Warren Gatland’s side over the past 2 years has been unmatched
by any side in world rugby, with a sensational run to what many believe should
and would have been the World Cup final but for Sam Warburton’s red card
followed up in such great style by their tremendous Grand Slam, gained with
victories on the road at Landsdowne Road and Twickenham.
It was to be hoped they could finally experience some success
down under and while that didn’t happen, a 3-0 series defat was probably the
most misleading score that anyone will see in a test series between two Tier 1
nations; Australia won the three tests but only by a combined margin of 11
points thanks to some costly Welsh errors. That, combined with home advantage –Wales
have won their last four Test matches at the Millennium Stadium, and six of the
last seven – and the fact that Argentina lost twice to Australia in the Rugby
Championship, makes Wales worthy 10 point favourites for all that it doesn’t
look to be a cast iron choice with the Pumas having proven their credentials so
readily in the recent Rugby Championship.
Santiago Phelan’s men have proven themselves more than
worthy of their place in the newly created Championship despite only getting
one result – a draw against the Boks on home turf. They had Australia well down
and on the ropes in the Gold Coast, held New Zealand to just 5 points in the
first half before going down only 21-5 in the end, and of course held South
Africa. Their grit and termination won’t phase Wales, but the same obdurate style
which Gatland has used to his advantage is sure to give a proper test to a side
which has made 7 changes to the outfit beaten just a point by the Wallabies, with
Adam Jones sidelined by a knee injury, flanker Dan Lyidate having an ankle
knock, and Ryan Jones's shoulder injury ruling him out of Saturday's Test
against Argentina. That’s three of the Grand Slam winning pack gone for what
could be the most physical of their four clashes.
In better news, the back row is completely fit and brings
with it the devastating power and finesse of Alex Cuthbert and George North on
both wings, while Leigh Halfpenny’s burgeoning reputation as one of the best
fullbacks’ around has been enhanced by his exploits with the Blues so far this
season. Argentina are sure to put up a tenacious showing but home advantage
should give Wales the win, with the value looking split between a home win by
1-12 points and the second half no draw handicap of 5 points with Betfred.
Argentina have been outscored by an average 7 points in the second half during
the Rugby Championship while Wales let in just two tries during the second half
of their 6 Nations. The physical nature of Gatland’s side – who have been training
in Spala once again in preparation for this series – leands themselves towards
the second half handicap and with Argentina seeming to lose their impetus after
the break, the bet makes obvious appeal.
Advice
2 pts Wales -4.5 on 2nd half no draw h’cap (4/5
Betfred)
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