Delcan Kidney and Heyneke Meyer are two coaches under some heavy pressure heading into this set of Autumn Internationals and it maybe the latter is the happier of the two with a South Africa victory in Dublin this evening in the first of the Autumn Internationals. With the pools for the 2015 Rugby World Cup being sorted out at the end of this month, the IRB Ranking point system has made these matches more crucial than ever for many but with South Africa safely nestled in third - barring a disaster of a tour - and Ireland miles away from the hallowed fourth spot, this isn’t going to be a gamechanger in the spots. Instead, the main focus of this match is for two teams at a relative crossroads, although Ireland’s injury crisis makes them vulnerable to the travelling Springboks.
Ireland come into this game missing Brian O'Driscoll, Sean O'Brien, Rob Kearney and Rory Best – who were already ruled out for the whole series – while Paul O’Connell and Stephen Ferris have also been ruled out of today. That’s 6 of Ireland’s first team out before we’ve even started and while their understudies are no mugs (Richardt Strauss looks to be a quality replacement at hooker and Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe are still exceptional wingers) but the shifting of the admittedly very talented Simon Zebo to fullback against South Africa of all teams underlines the problems Kidney has at the treatment table and it’s hard to see them getting anything from this match today.
It should be remembered that Ireland are capable of overturning anyone on their day but they have beaten only Russia, Scotland and Italy since that famous win against Australia and they come here with a weaker team than for all of those games. South Africa have won only one of their last 5 but anyone who’s been watching them will know that doesn't come anywhere close to telling the proper story.
They led 13-6 at the break against Australia and were the better side for long periods before costly defensive mistakes cost them dear (the scores were level with just 12 minutes to go) but they were even better against New Zealand, where they lost 21-11 but missed 20 points off the tee alone thanks to the wastefulness of Morne and Frans Steyn in Dunedin. Bryan Habana’s early missed try was extremely costly, bringing it to 25 points missed against the All Blacks. A 31-8 win against Australia shows what they’re capable of when it all clicks and their 16-32 defeat to the All Blacks at home is noting to be ashamed of despite the fact they were leading at half time. Admittedly the Springboks are missing Bryan Habana (a big blow) and Retief Goosen amongst others, but that’s only three changed from the side that played the Rugby Championship final against New Zealand, and the addition of prodigy Patrick Lambie at 10 goes a long way to solving the creativity problem and JP Pietersen being on the wing is a massive boost.
The handicap of 4 points is very tempting and would be readily recommended, but the win by 1-12 points offers more value and seems to be a good option for two teams that can play forward oriented Rugby at times.
Advice
2 pts South Africa to win by 1-10 points (13/8 Stan James)
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