QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - Scotland v South Africa

This year’s Autumn Internationals have a fantastic twist with the end of year Rankings for the World Cup and Scotland can give themselves a fighting chance of staying in the second seeding group and beating South Africa.

Andy Robinson’s are currently ranked 9th in the world and unless they can turnover South Africa this weekend then they must accept a third tier seeding for the pool draw for the 2015 tournament. That means they will face one of the top four in the world - currently New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and France – and one of those sides ranked 5th-8th - currently England, Wales, Ireland and Argentina - in three years' time. Facing both England and Argentina saw them fail to make the quarters in New Zealand and back on home turf they’ll be loathe to throw away their chances before they’ve begun.

However it’s not all bad for Robinson’s men. Three wins out of three in the Summer was an encouraging return for a side who consistently create but fail to finish, but the arrival of Tim Visser after a residency period has fixed that judged against two tired against the All Blacks, four tries in three Test appearances and 6 in 9 from the Pro 12. The All Blacks may have roundly thrashed the Scots but they showed so much to be encouraged about in scoring their 22 points and while the sloppy defence was worrying, there’s no doubting that they should be able to give South Africa a real test.

Since taking over from the enigmatic and controversial Peter De Villers, Henkye Meyer has struggled badly to create a side in his own image and while the aimless placekicking of Morne Steyn can be blamed for at least two of their defeats, they failed to win an away game all Championship. Meyer has brought an even weaker side for the overseas tests – namely through the heart problem to ‘The Beast’ – along with injuries to Bryan Habana and Retief Goosen amongst others, and their win against Ireland last week has to rank as one of the poorest performances of sometime from the Springboks, who used a 20 minute blast to score 13 points and turnover the game when Jamie Heaslip was in the bin. Before that an Ireland side missing Brian O'Driscoll, Sean O'Brien, Rob Kearney, Rory Best, Paul O’Connell and Stephen Ferris had utterly dominated the Boks, who might get a nasty surprise if they feel they can roll Scotland over physically. Take the hosts with a start of 12 points, or the visitors to grind out a win by 1-12 if you must.

Advice

2 pts Scotland +12 (10/11 Bet Victor, Paddy Power)

QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - England v Australia

It’s been just over a year since Stuart Lancaster took over England but the side that bids for a third straight win against Australia will be unrecognisable from the one that scrapped so hard to beat Scotland and Italy and their progress can be bookended with a convincing win against Robbie Deans’s under fire Wallabies at Twickenham on Saturday.

England's forwards have traditionally dominated Australia in Cook Cup clashes

In their mission to keep their fourth place world ranking to gain a top seeding to go with the home adnvtage that they’ll have in just over three years’ time for the World Cup, England came into this series knowing they’d have to beat at least two of the Tri Nations to keep that ranking when France beat Australia last weekend, so an easy 54-12 win against Fiji hould have told us nothing in hindsight, but from the spectacle on show at the Stade De France there couldn’t be a better time to face Robbie Deans’s side.

In a 33-6 defeat we saw arguably one of the worst Wallabies performances of recent years, but also a prefect blueprint for a first English three timer against the Wallabies since the days of Sir Clive Woodward. It’s no secret that Australia’s most fallible area at Test level is their scrum. It was the very weapon England used to knock them out of the World Cup in France, something which Ireland replicated in uncanny fashion four years later in Auckland, and the basis for France’s revenge for the 59-16 embarrassment which had taken place two years earlier.

The utterly domaint scrum, along with the superb performance from the all Clermont front row in the latter stages, laid down the platform for Michalaras and Machenaud to wreak havoc in midfield despite France having just 40% possession and territory all game. There’s no doubting that England are equally as powerful, if not more, in the forward ranks and Graham Rowntree will have no doubt been educating his men all week on the weak points of the Australian pack, especially in a game refereed by Romain Poite, famous for rewarding dominance at the scrum.

Australia can at least call back fullback Berrick Barnes and winger Digby Ioane, second rower Sitaleki Timani and tight-head prop Ben Alexander, but they’re still missing Will Genia, David Pocock, Quade Cooper, James Horwill, James O'Connor, Matt Giteau, and Rocky Elsom, and they come against an England side which has been steadily improving for more than a year both forward and back, and one which beat a superior side 35-18 little more than a year ago. The mouthwatering handicap of 5 has already been and gone (although we told you to get on before it went) but even marks as big as 8 are worth considering (Australia have lost 33-6 in France and 31-8 in South Africa this year), although the 8/11 on Lancaster’s men leading at half and full time is a bet that can’t be passed up – Australia have been behind on 7 occasions going into the break this year.

Those looking for winning margins are directed to the 1-12 point lines – Australia will be fired up not to be embarrassed again and having Berrick Barnes on the tee which bring out improvement – although the second half handicap of 3.5 makes appeal  and so does the point mark of 25 or more. With England having been so strong after the break against Fiji and notably Ireland, when a second half blitz of 22 points saw them trash the Celts 30-6 thanks to a penalty try and plenty of penalty dominance, the latter makes a touch more appeal.

Alex Goode was superb against Fiji

Advice

6 pts England/England (8/11 Paddy Power, Blue Sq, 888Sport)

2 pts England –3.5 On second half no draw handicap (5/6 Betfred)

Already Advised (12^th November)

England -5 (10/11 Paddy Power)

India v England - Test Series Preview

One of the best things about sport is that it offers brutal tests of the gifted. Rugby’s ultimate test is a match against the All Blacks, a trip to the Camp Nou is now generally regarded as club football’s stiffest challenge, The Tour De France is the ultimate cycling race, and the 100m is the Olympic highlight. All of them hold a certain prestige no matter whom the competitors and all present the toughest challenge in their sport. Cricket has several challenges but none quite as defining and as severe as the tour of India, and Alistair Cook’s England embark on a chance for redemption like no other early tomorrow.

The No.1 ranked team in the world just after thrashing India over a year ago on home soil, England have been unable to live upto that ranking like so many before them since the great Australia side that won 2-1 here all the way back in 2004-5. Just three wins in 11 tests since that crowning is an incredibly poor strike rate for a side which has so much talent and power, although the failings were all the same; Sub-continental, variable pitches.

Pakistan used the magic of Saeed Ajmal to whitewash England in their home series, Sri Lanka did the same with Herath, and then they were usurped at home by South Africa in the summer, with two of their wins coming against a West Indies side in complete disarray and unfit for the test game in midsummer. How can England improve on that record, which took it to no wins in a subcontential series apart from Bangladesh since 2001? Those looking for small comforts should note that England did actually win their last test in Asia against Sri Lanka in Colombo in good style, and that they have come here and prepared with plenty of experience in tour matches beforehand. Three weeks of playing tour matches against local sides has allowed for the top 6 to make centuries; On paper at least, a much more beneficial preparation than the two games they’d played in the UAE and then Sri Lanka before starting the series.

One would like to think that the comprehensive win against Sri Lanka indicated an improvement that might just have come after a whole winter of trying and failing to play spin on slow Asian pitches beforehand, although there’s a danger of rating a 1-1 draw against a side still searching for their first series win since Muttiah Muralitharan's retirement.

There are positives for this this England side. Their batting may have failed on numerous occasions in Asia but there’s still a case for their attack being the best in the world, its reputation having arguably been boosted in the midst of their 3-0 defeat in the UAE, with Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad taking a remarkable 24 wickets between them in Dubai and Anderson proving to be the best quick bowler by far in Sri Lanka with 9 wickets. Adding in the rapid progress of Steven Finn, who’s unique length gives him the extra dimension needed to test the home batsmen on their own soil.

The only problem is that Steven Finn – England’s best fast bowler when much of the side that had humped India in home soil got a revenge battering in the ODI’s by 5-0 around a year ago - misses the first test with a thigh injury, while Stuart Broad may play but has been held back by a niggling heel injury, bowling just 10 overs on tour so far. 

This leaves much of the responsibility on Graeme Swann, a spinner who can be ranked right up there with the world’s best, Monty Panesar, who enjoyed a recent renaissance earlier in the year, and the versatile Samit Patel, who can play a third spinner for England to apply pressure and rest the seamers. Swann took 13 and 16 wickets in both series this winter and must fire if England are to have any shred of hope, but has never been found wanting on the subcontinent before and with doubts over the other bowlers, makes appeal to be England’s top bowler over the four tests with main danger – in my mind - Steven Finn – missing the first test and the pitches set up to help him.

In terms of the batsmen the reintegrated Kevin Pietersen will be seen as the one man India fear, for all that he’s not impervious to struggles against left handed spin, especially that of Yuvraj Singh. Alistair Cook – facing the toughest inauguration any captain could wish for –is an attractive candidate with many test runs in either Asia or high pressure situations, but Jonathan Trott top scored in both series when England were being thrashed earlier this year and is the obvious selection with his obdurate temperament and technique likely to restrain and Indian spin attack which isn’t what it used to be.

Despite that not being the lease of the home side’s problems – this is the side that lost eight tests on the bounce to England and Australia – home records must be respected. Since 2 November 2007, India have played 27 tests at home. They’ve won 15, drawn 10 and lost just 2 of those – an exceptional record in anyone’s language, even if the winning rate isn’t as high as it used to be. Yes, the batting lineup isn’t what it used to be, and their two main spinners in Ashwin and Ojha have just 24 tests between them, but this is a golden opportunity to beat a side who for all their talents, are just as poor travelling as the under pressure hosts.

Since England's 1-1 draw in 2005/6, only South Africa (twice) have avoided defeat here or even managed to win a Test, while they’ve won 10 and drawn four of the 14 series since they went down 2-1 to an all-time-great Australia side in 2004. Eight of those series have been won to nil, five ending 2-0 to the hosts, and with only one venue of the four having a 100% result record, a dutch of 2 and 3-0 becomes the obvious choice, with superstar Virat Kholi and Cheteshwar Pujara – described by some as the long term replacement for Rahul Dravid – taken to lead the way for a home success, even if the series does start slowly at a venue where India have won just one of their last 7 tests.

Advice – India v England Series

1 pt India 2-0 (11/2 general)

1 pt India 3-0 (7/1 Ladbrokes, 13/2 general)

Advice - Top England Batsman

1 pt Jonathan Trott (4/1 general)

Advice - Top England Bowler

2 pts Graeme Swann (7/4 Ladbrokes)

Advice – Top India Batsman

2 pts Virat Kohli (7/2 general)

1 pt Cheteshwar Pujara (11/2 general)

Advice – Top series batsman

2 pts Virat Kohli (11/2 general)

1 pt each/way Cheteshwar Pujara (11/1 Paddy Power)

Advice – Top series bowler

1 pt Graeme Swann (8/1 Sportingbet)


Advice - 1st Test 

2 pts Draw (6/4 Sportingbet)

QBE Autumn Internationals - Scotland v New Zealand

The IRB rankings for the 2015 World Cup will be decided at the end of this month’s Autumn Internationals but there’s no questioning the No.1 side at the World and Steve Hansen’s New Zealand can put down a marker by blowing away Scotland here at Murrayfield today. Since ending years of disappointment and then winning the World Cup, there was always the potential for the highest of standards to slip but Steve Hansen has wasted no time in creating an identity of his own for the All Blacks and if anything their status as the World’s best team is even truer now than when at the end of the World Cup.

The last team to beat New Zealand was Australia at the end of the Tri Nations last year but since then they’ve gone unbeaten in 18, having been a Dan Carter drop goal away from denying a fired up Australia in a hot headed Blesidoe Cup encounter. A first Rugby Championship saw a clean sweep of wins both home and away, with South Africa and Argentina particularly being on the end of heavy beatings.

Scotland’s summer tour in itself was a mark of significant progress – three wins out of three including a desperately hard fought 9-6 win of Australia in near unplayable conditions-in their dreadful 6 Nations campaign only in terms of tries scored (Scotland made the most linebreaks of any side but failed to turn more than 4 chances into tries), mostly thanks to the arrival of Tim Visser thanks to a residential period pent within the country.

Scotland are still a step behind the rest of Europe on that evidence though and must face the toughest test in world rugby without Joe Ansbro, Chris Cusiter, Rory Lamont, Graeme Morrison, Duncan Weir, Nikki Walker and Euan Murray. In three recent meeting the All Blacks have won by 40, 26 and 46 points, so a handicap of just 25 with Bet Victor seems generous and should be taken with relish.

Advice

  

3 pts New Zealand -25 (10/11 Bet Victor) 

QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - France v Australia

It’s been two years since Australia trashed France 59-16 in one of the lowest points of Marc Livermont’s reign and while a similar result seems to be out of the question the Wallabies can put a dampener in Phllippe Saint Andre’s plans of gaining a top 4 spot in the world rankings in time for the Pool seedings of the Rugby World Cup. France are just 0.06 points behind England and will move into that spot with a win over Australia today, not minding the fact that they have to play only Samoa and Argentina after that, with England playing the three big Tri Nations soon afterwards. France are a best of on to win against Australia today but there are several reasons to take issue with that price.

Saint Andre’s side were many people’s favourites for the 6 Nations –including yours truly – but won just two games from against the whipping boys Scotland and Italy, while failing to win at home against Ireland and England. Admittedly they drew to Ireland with one of those being an awful intercept try for Tommy Bowe) and could have beaten England had their Francois Trinh Duc not made a fair hash of his last gasp drop goal attempt, but the lack of application in the first halves of those encounters was particularly worrying and the fact that only Wesley Fofana was able to score a try against anyone but Italy or Scotland shows badly on their backline.

Fofana – who has been superb for Clermont this season – has been pushed out to the wing to accommodate the revamped midfield of Firtz and Mermoz which impressed so many when trashing Argentina and ending a 14 year losing streak in South America in some style, showing just what the French are capable of when given the chance. If Mercurial playmaker Frederic Michalak can bring his Touloun form back to the fly half position then France should find themselves more than capable of making opportunities, and Maxime Machenaud did impress in partnership with him during the rout of Los Pumas. There’s no denying that Theirry Dusatoir is a huge loss though despite the good club form of Yannick Nyaanga and there’s an all too experimental feel about a side which has lost 5 of their last 6 against the Wallabies and just one of their last 5 in general. It’s also worth remembering that Pumas they encountered  was a much weakened side though – it had no European talent and also had made 7 changes from the outfit that beat France with a late try just a week previously.

Australia have been decimated by injury but are still able to call upon all but three of the team that held the All Blacks to an 18-18 draw in the Bilesdoe Cup when last seen, with Kane Douglas and Sekope Kepu coming in to start at lock and prop respectively in no way a negative, and Michel Hooper having stepped into the gaping hole left by David Pocock in great style over the Rugby Championship. Three hard fought, albeit lucky, wins over Wales earlier in the season and a second place in the Rugby Championship are a testament to the will of the Wallabies and while there are many reasons some can find to take them on, recent form makes them far too big at nearly 2/1 – take the 5/2 with Hills that they win by 1-12 points.

Advice

1 pt Australia to win by 1-12 points (5/2 Hills) 

QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - Ireland v South Africa

Delcan Kidney and Heyneke Meyer are two coaches under some heavy pressure heading into this set of Autumn Internationals and it maybe the latter is the happier of the two with a South Africa victory in Dublin this evening in the first of the Autumn Internationals. With the pools for the 2015 Rugby World Cup being sorted out at the end of this month, the IRB Ranking point system has made these matches more crucial than ever for many but with South Africa safely nestled in third - barring a disaster of a tour - and Ireland miles away from the hallowed fourth spot, this isn’t going to be a gamechanger in the spots. Instead, the main focus of this match is for two teams at a relative crossroads, although Ireland’s injury crisis makes them vulnerable to the travelling Springboks.

Ireland come into this game missing Brian O'Driscoll, Sean O'Brien, Rob Kearney and Rory Best – who were already ruled out for the whole series – while Paul O’Connell and Stephen Ferris have also been ruled out of today. That’s 6 of Ireland’s first team out before we’ve even started and while their understudies are no mugs (Richardt Strauss looks to be a quality replacement at hooker and Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe are still exceptional wingers) but the shifting of the admittedly very talented Simon Zebo to fullback against South Africa of all teams underlines the problems Kidney has at the treatment table and it’s hard to see them getting anything from this match today.

It should be remembered that Ireland are capable of overturning anyone on their day but they have beaten only Russia, Scotland and Italy since that famous win against Australia and they come here with a weaker team than for all of those games. South Africa have won only one of their last 5 but anyone who’s been watching them will know that doesn't come anywhere close to telling the proper story.

They led 13-6 at the break against Australia and were the better side for long periods before costly defensive mistakes cost them dear (the scores were level with just 12 minutes to go) but they were even better against New Zealand, where they lost 21-11 but missed 20 points off the tee alone thanks to the wastefulness of Morne and Frans Steyn in Dunedin. Bryan Habana’s early missed try was extremely costly, bringing it to 25 points missed against the All Blacks. A 31-8 win against Australia shows what they’re capable of when it all clicks and their 16-32 defeat to the All Blacks at home is noting to be ashamed of despite the fact they were leading at half time. Admittedly the Springboks are missing Bryan Habana (a big blow) and Retief Goosen amongst others, but that’s only three changed from the side that played the Rugby Championship final against New Zealand, and the addition of prodigy Patrick Lambie at 10 goes a long way to solving the creativity problem and JP Pietersen being on the wing is a massive boost.

The handicap of 4 points is very tempting and would be readily recommended, but the win by 1-12 points offers more value and seems to be a good option for two teams that can play forward oriented Rugby at times.

Advice

2 pts South Africa to win by 1-10 points (13/8 Stan James) 

QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - Wales v Argentina

Despite three Grand Slams in the last 8 years Wales have arguably never had more potential and with a top 4 IRB Rankings spot up from grabs and a Northern Hemisphere World Cup in sight – much like the other nations –make no mistake, this is one of the most crucial months in recent years for Wales. Often impressive and then flattering to deceive, the remarkable progress made by Warren Gatland’s side over the past 2 years has been unmatched by any side in world rugby, with a sensational run to what many believe should and would have been the World Cup final but for Sam Warburton’s red card followed up in such great style by their tremendous Grand Slam, gained with victories on the road at Landsdowne Road and Twickenham.

It was to be hoped they could finally experience some success down under and while that didn’t happen, a 3-0 series defat was probably the most misleading score that anyone will see in a test series between two Tier 1 nations; Australia won the three tests but only by a combined margin of 11 points thanks to some costly Welsh errors. That, combined with home advantage –Wales have won their last four Test matches at the Millennium Stadium, and six of the last seven – and the fact that Argentina lost twice to Australia in the Rugby Championship, makes Wales worthy 10 point favourites for all that it doesn’t look to be a cast iron choice with the Pumas having proven their credentials so readily in the recent Rugby Championship.

Santiago Phelan’s men have proven themselves more than worthy of their place in the newly created Championship despite only getting one result – a draw against the Boks on home turf. They had Australia well down and on the ropes in the Gold Coast, held New Zealand to just 5 points in the first half before going down only 21-5 in the end, and of course held South Africa. Their grit and termination won’t phase Wales, but the same obdurate style which Gatland has used to his advantage is sure to give a proper test to a side which has made 7 changes to the outfit beaten just a point by the Wallabies, with Adam Jones sidelined by a knee injury, flanker Dan Lyidate having an ankle knock, and Ryan Jones's shoulder injury ruling him out of Saturday's Test against Argentina. That’s three of the Grand Slam winning pack gone for what could be the most physical of their four clashes.

In better news, the back row is completely fit and brings with it the devastating power and finesse of Alex Cuthbert and George North on both wings, while Leigh Halfpenny’s burgeoning reputation as one of the best fullbacks’ around has been enhanced by his exploits with the Blues so far this season. Argentina are sure to put up a tenacious showing but home advantage should give Wales the win, with the value looking split between a home win by 1-12 points and the second half no draw handicap of 5 points with Betfred. Argentina have been outscored by an average 7 points in the second half during the Rugby Championship while Wales let in just two tries during the second half of their 6 Nations. The physical nature of Gatland’s side – who have been training in Spala once again in preparation for this series – leands themselves towards the second half handicap and with Argentina seeming to lose their impetus after the break, the bet makes obvious appeal.

Advice

2 pts Wales -4.5 on 2^nd half no draw h’cap (4/5 Betfred) 

QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - England v Fiji

Test Rugby returns for four glorious weeks as the end of year sporting feast truly begins, with the motivation for the QBE internationals as high as it’s ever been. The 2015 World Cup hosts England have just over 2 years to prepare for the trophy, and first on the list for Lancaster’s men would be to gain one of the top 4 seeding spots that allow one to avoid the ‘Tri-Nations’ – themselves well clear – in the pool stages. England lie fourth, being the only European team currently there, but they’re only a fraction ahead of France (0.06 points to be exact) with one of the strongest Wales sides of recent memory on their tail. Considering that France have only one game against the big powers – Australia, who they are 4/6 to beat (more on that later) – and that England will play the big three, albeit at Twickenham, the next month is arguably the most vital since Lancaster’s appointment after the World Cup fiasco.

Danny Care's impressive form has given England strength in depth

England have come a long way since that dreadful defeat to France, with an extremely strong 6 National seeing them beat all but Wales (and even that could have gone differently with the controversial TMO call against Strettle in the last minute). A dramatic 22-24 win against France – making them the first side to win a 6 Nations game in Paris for four years - was a huge step forward for the young side which then thrashed Ireland at Twickenham to become Europe’s second best team with some ease.

They may have failed to win one of their Autumn Tests but they improved with time in South Africa to the point of holding the hosts to a draw in the last test and over the three matches the score between the two was 72-60, an impressive difference considering one of the tests was at altitude. In short, it doesn’t look too bad for Lancaster’s men although they have yet tougher tests coming up in the next month.

Given they have to play the world’s top three, starting their series against Fiji might have been a smart plan with all due respect. The Islanders do have some fond memories of trips to the Northern Heimsphere – a famous win and draw against Wales in recent seasons – but since then the finer intricacies of Rugby Laws have robbed them of a lot of talent. It was only in this week’s Breakdown that I learned that the islanders supply more than 30 eligible players to the three major leagues in Europe but fewer than 10 were named in the original squad for this month's tour.

Some late call ups have beefed up the lineup condiserably – Leicester's Vereniki Goneva lining up alongside Exeter Chiefs' Sireli Naqelevuki in the centres is a boost, Scarlets prop Deacon Manu is a valuable addition while Gloucester's Akapusi Qera has been one of the form 8’s in Europe so far this season, but this is a side which lacks the all-round quality of even an experimental England side and on home soil, the question is how far.

If forced to pick a side on the handicap, I’d go for England but a 32 point winning margin is on the big side and should Lancaster’s side take time to gel, then they may possibly fall short. Instead dutching winning margins of 21-30 and 31-40 with Paddy Power might be a better play.

Advice

1 pt England to win by 21-30 points (7/2 Paddy Power)

1 pt England to win by 31-40 (10/3 Paddy Power)