Bradley Wiggins may well have sealed the yellow jersey yesterday with the first of the two toughest mountain days negotiated safely and Cadel Evans cracked in one go, although neither may be as important as the repelled attacks from Vincenzo Nibali that were reeled in again and again by Froome and Wiggins in a tag team effort going over the top of the Col de Peyresourde – just 15KM from the finish with the descent to help the Italian – but that came to nothing and he was safely contained with the trip finishing as a pack, while also ending the tour hopes of Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who is now 3.23 behind Nibali.
The stage was won in exceptional fashion by Thomas Vockler, who got into the main breakway and then never looked back after burning off fellow Frenchman Brian Felliu and coming home in his own time from Chris Aneker Sorensen with ease, and that has set up a fascinating fight between him and Federik Kessiakov in the mountains.
Today’ stage is the last chance for him to attack but it’s hard to see this suiting him as much as yesterday given the uphill finish, which usually sees elite teams, climbers and GC contenders at the front when things get down to the business end, just like stage 11 which saw Froome bet Wiggins and Cadel Evans in a desperate finish. The major betting point to consider is the breakway, which will surely be large in numbers with 14 teams still looking for a stage win and the Sky 1-2 duo sure to take the beating in the time trial and the sprinters looking to have the Champs Elyesses to themselves.
Looking towards the top ranked contenders, it’s no surprise to see Chris Froome as favourite at 9/2 given his brilliant climbing – he’s been the best climber on the tour bar none when properly asked – and his sensational mountain finish on Stage 7 when the climbers ranked to the fore. The one worry is that with the breakway likely not to contain threats to Wiggins or Froome himself, it won’t be reeled back and the favorutism assumes that he will either be allowed to kick on late in the final stages if the break doesn’t get away. A lot needs to go his way if he’s to win today and he’s more of an in play pick. Nibali looked good for nearly all of yesterday’s stages but he was reeled in every time he attacked by Sky on the climbs and he’s the more likely of the two to break on the climb today. Bradley Wiggins himself looks likely to stay safe, and is dependent upon the break not getting away.
Thomas Volcker’s win yesterday showed how the Tour lends itself towards previous winners and also those who have won on stages or the same course in similar years, so Pierre Rolland ‘s win on Alpe D’Huez last year gives him immense appeal if the Peloton aren’t still angry for his attack on Sunday – he has since protested he had no idea that Evans had punctured behind – and with his legs for climbing the mountains already confirmed, even prices as short as 12’s have to be looked at closely.
A forgotten man may be Jelle Vandervert, who beat Evans, Rockler, Rolland and the Schleck brothers to win Stage 14 last year in the Pyrnees. Should the break be caught, then his climbing ability is in no doubt and at 80’s with Bet365, he’s far too big today.
So too might be Movistar men Rui Albero Costa and Aleandro Valverde, although Egoi Martinez also needs looking at, having made several attempts that haven’t quite stuck for Euskatel. Tactically outclassed by Millar and Peraud on Stage 12, he has a good chance here if staying with the leading group, while Rui Alberto makes more appeal than his compatriot based on his better form so far at a far bigger price. And last but not least, Sandy Casar, who was caught short when 3rd for us at a big price in Stage 14, as he’s shown he can climbs well even if the finishing kick hasn’t quite been matched.
The 1-2 in the mountains classification, Thomas Volcker and Federik Kesiakoff, have to be taken seriously and they may well be involved at the finish once again, with Vockler a superb soloist if need be and Kesiakoff not far behind.
Advice
1 pt each/way Rui Alberto Costa (33/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Egoi Martinez (33/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Sandy Casar (34/1 Bet365)
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