Heavyweight clashes often make sporting summers and even
with all the other action around this superb event –The Open, Olympics and Tour
De France amongst others – the significance of this massive test series between
England and South Africa should not be underestimated. The two (widely seen as
the strongest sides in World Cricket despite South Africa lying third in the
ICC rankings) will play three Tests (two in the capital), five ODIs and three
T20s, starting at The Oval today, in a series which will decide the best team
in the sport in not one, but two, but all three formats of the game.
And while some series with these tags have failed to deliver
– notably England v India, which was an entertaining but very one sided affair
in the least – there can be no doubt that South Africa will be the most accomplished
and crucially the most well prepared side to make the journey over. This is a
match up against the best home side in the world (England, seven straight
series wins) against the best tourists (South Africa, who have staggeringly not
lost an away series since 2006), with the best battling and fast bowling line
ups in the world for good measure.
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| Graeme Smith has overseen 6 unbeaten tours since 2006 |
With the victors having such an excellent touring record and
crucially possessing not one, not two, not three bowlers that can exert the
pressure that England themselves are so used to exerting on opposing batsmen,
while also comfortable with swing themselves, I’d initially thought that the
visitors were actually a touch of value and I’d had recommending them for the
win in mind at 3/1, but two things have changed my opinion on that.
First is the desperate loss of Mark Boucher due to a serious
eye injury on 9 July 2012, after being struck on his left eye by a bail on the
opening day of South Africa’s tour match against Somerset at Taunton. A top
captain, he would have come into this as one of the great wicketkeepers, holding
the record for the wicketkeeper with the most number of dismissals in Tests
(555)—more than a hundred ahead of the Adam Gilchrist who ended his career with
416 while also having the most number of overall dismissals in international
cricket for a wicketkeeper (999—one of these as an outfielder), with Gilchrist
in second again. In case you needed any more reminding, in the last ten years
South Africa have won 45 per cent of matches with him at the helm, and without
him they have a win rate of just 16. Even for a team such as South Africa, his
loss may well be irreplaceable given the link up he and Imran Tahir would have
wanted to form with so much damp around for help bowlers. It hands a massive advantage
to Graeme Swann and Matt Prior and that may well be the one which gives them a
few more wickets during the series. Yes, AB De Villers is an ample replacement in
battling terms if put in – replacement Lwando Tstobe is an option – but batting
and keeping will put a lot on him in terms of pressure and strain on mind and
body, which can’t be seen as ideal.
Second is the weather which may well have left them
undercooked – how much we know we’ve yet to see. You need no introduction to
how wet a summer this has been but even this is pushing it. 47 out of 81
four-day county championship matches have ended in draws and 20 out of 90 T20’s
have been abandoned without a result, and the visitors preparations for this
test have been seriously pulled back by the fact that they’ve played the
equivalent of little more than 2 days of cricket before the 1st
test. The two openers – the importance of which is emphasized given the fact
they are playing England in England - have faced just 57 and 82 balls respectively before
now, while several others have missed out on a good deal of game time that
would be much needed.
That makes their 1st test against England a huge
task – a draw would be a top result with two games to come – and it does give
the advantage to England, who will have blown any cobwebs or confidence issues
(following a disastrous winter in Asia) they had out of the water with a
thumping of the West Indies. Many will
be happy to take the 11/10 but with this being the best team they’ve faced at
home in their reign at No.1 and an unpredictable weather forecast, that is far
too short. South Africa have the talent to win the series but probably not the
prep and too might be best left, with the draw at 3/1 making most appeal. With
the correct score of 1-1 just a point bigger, a hedge of England 1-0 should be
the choice at 6-1 if you don’t want to leave yourself open to the possibility of
being stung by a win for the hosts.
With the two teams so evenly matched, there might be more
value in player betting. England’s myriad of batting talent means there are no
end of possible options with Cook, Strauss and Pietersen heading the way in
betting, but for some reason Ian Bell is available at 6/1 despite having run
scoring stats as good as all of those above – he has scored 1,202 runs in his
last 16 home innings at an average of 75 – and playing at no.5, he will avoid
the worst of avoiding Steyn, Morkel and
Philander early with the new ball and that makes him an extremely attractive prospect
not just for England but also the top series runscorer market, where he’s a far
too tempting 10/1 with Bet365 and 8/1 with Stan James, who will go a ¼ three
places each/way.
South Africa’s top runscorer over the past 12 months is AB
De Villers with 716 – that leads by some way – but there’s a slight worry about
him keeping as well as batting and it’s hard to be super keen on his chances in
a category where any one of 4 could win. Jacques Kallis has a fairly ordinary
record here and Graeme Smith might be vulnerable to the opening ball, so Hashim
Amla looks to have a good chance on paper to lead the attack.
Their bowlers are amongst the best in the world but it’s
impossible to get away from Dale Steyn (left). The man who has taken more wickets than
any other bowler in the past 5 years, averages 23.18 overall, and 34.29 against
England, and even better, there’s no change in his average and strike rate
against left (29.21 and 54.37) and right
handers (19.65 and 36.37) respectively and even at cramped odds of 2/1, he
makes serious appeal to be the top bowler here even against Morkel and Philanderer.
For England, it’s the same situation, but it’s likely to be
a straight fight between Stuart Broad and James Anderson unless Tim Bresnan takes a big hand as
he can do. Broad is 11/4 compared to Anderson and that makes him the pick, especially
when he has a superior strike rate.
Advice- Series
2 pts Draw (3/1 general)
1 pt 1-0 England (6/1 Sportingbet)
Advice – England Player performance
2 pts each/way Ian Bell top England runscorer (6/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Ian Bell top Series Runscorer (10/1 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Ian Bell (8/1 Stan James)
1 pt Stuart Broad top bowler (11/4 general)
Advice – South Africa player performance
2 pts Dale Steyn top Bowler (2/1 general)
1 pt Hashim Amla top bat (10/3 Coral)
1 pt Hashim Amla top series bat (7/1 Skybet)
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