This year’s F1 season has been noted for how competitive
it’s been but in Valencia last week there was only one man to catch during
qualifying and the race and Sebastian Vettel can count himself sincerely
unlucky not to have become the first man to win more than one Grands Prix at
Valencia two weeks ago, and he looks to have a first rate chance of winning at
Silverstone for the second time this weekend.
There had been little to separate most of the top teams throughought
most of this season but Red Ball (after a slow start) have slowly emerged as
the team to beat (they’ve taken the last 3 poles and 5 this season), and a
major aerodynamic upgrade took them clear of the pack in impressive fashion
last week, seeing him go 2nd and 1st in Friday’s
practice, taking the pole position by 0.324 seconds before lapping about a
second a lap faster than anyone else throughout the race. He had a lead of 20
seconds before a safety car took that advantage down, but he was still infront
and going very well until Alternator Control saw him drop out. It was a
horribly unfair end to a great week but the raw pace he showed there has to put
him right up there as the one to beat, with Silvertone’s circuit one that works
very well for Red Bull based on recent evidence (two out of the last three wins
here and three out of four poles for Vettel).
There’s a worry about a horrendous forecast – there’s a 70%
chance of rain and Vettel has never had the best of records in the wet, while the
hotter the track conditions, the better the Red Bull usually is – but with the practice
sessions likely to be very wet he should be getting his eye in early this
weekend and anyone who wants to reconsider will have plenty of time to change
their minds after practice 1 and 2. If all goes to plan, 3/1 is an outstanding
bet for the World Champion. With Vettel having taken 3 poles this season, the
12/1 on a Win/Pole/Fastest Lap treble also makes appeal, that having been a
treble he completed in 2009.
According to the market, Red Bull’s main threat is seen to
be Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso, but on pace this season Romain Grosjean
has been the second fastest car without success and the 12/1 offered on him,
along with the 7/2 on him taking yet another podium, seems to be real value
based on his excellent efforts this season. A formguide of his completed starts
reads 6-3-4-2 and it’s really hard to think that he wouldn’t have made the
podium in Valencia last weekend but for tyre failure. He’s made the top 6 on
all his starts this season and the 4/6 on that pre event is very tempting too,
although I’ll stick my neck out and say podium given his recent pace. Rain is a
worry for his chance as well but we’ll get time to see him in the wet tomorrow
if the conditions are as expected.
Next is Pastor Maldonado, the perennial underachiever who’s
gotten the best out of Williams on each race this season only to blow it late
on with the exception of the Spanish Grand Prix. His drive in Valencia to all
but make second place – I am certain that he would have passed Lewis Hamilton
had he held his nerve – was all the more impressive given how outpaced the
Williams actually was, but it emphasizes the point that it’s a car that sticks
around until the finish and Maldonado is capable of making large amounts of
ground in mid race and fighting at the finish. He’s one on the shortlist and
the 4/6 on him making the points had it’s appeal, so much do I respect him, but
the value might not be there this weekend.
Should the race actually turn into a rain sodden affair,
then there would be 4 drivers that need serious attention in Malaysian Grand
Prix 1-2 Fernando Alonso and Sergio Perez, alongside the home
duo of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button. Alonso is not only
a master of driving the safe race, but he’s getting everything out of the Ferrari
at the moment (which in itself has improved a lot since the opening weekend),
excelled with his tactical changes in Malaysia’s downpours, has a good record
around this track, and is driving three times better on raceday than in
qualifying. The 11/2 for him to win would be tempting if we knew we were
getting rain and it’s got legs in the dry as well, but there could be tons more
value on him in running or after qualifying, as he’s done so well from an uncomprising
starting position this year.
Perez himself chased down Alonso at a rapid rate in Malyasia
in both wet and dry conditions – it’s worth noting that he may have won had
Alonso not switched to dry-weather slick tyres a lap before Perez, or if he
hadn’t got on to the kerb at Turn 14 and ran wide - and his chance has already
been highlighted by Betting Zone’s Tom Millard, but he still offers obvious
value. The 12/1 for a podium finish is big, and the 5/6 on a points finish could
be the way to go.
Mark Webber also interests as a value proposition, as he’s
been around Vettel for most of the season and one can’t ail to be impressed by
his rise to fourth from 19th on the grid there, and in dry conditions he would
be more of a value proposition for the podium or indeed the pole position.
Advice – Assuming a dry forecast for raceday
7 pts Sebastian Vettel (3/1 general)
2 pts Romain Grosjean Podium finish (7/2 general)
Advice – In wet
1 pt Fernando Alonso (11/2 general, 7/1 Bodog)
1 pt Sergio Perez Podium Finish (12/1 Bet365)
3 pts Sergio Perez points finish (8/11 888 Sport)
3 pts Sergio Perez points finish (8/11 888 Sport)
No comments:
Post a Comment