2012 Olympics - Swimming (Day 3)

Men’s 200m freestyle: Sun Yang, Yannick Angel, Ryan Lochte, Paul Bidermann and Park Thewan. An Olympic fantasy team or 5 of the competitors for the 200m freestyle final? Luckily for everyone, it’s the latter and we should be set for a scorching final between 5 great swimmers, 4 of which have already medalled, while the other holds the world record, which is enough to make you forget that defending champion Michael Phelps has sadly dropped this event. Given the quality of the competitors, the 4/1 freely available on the exchanges for  a new world record is interesting and might be worth an interest at the least, with plenty of records going and the effort level guaranteed to be at its highest.

Picking the winner is extremely difficult, with plenty of evidence that any of the big 5 could win. The first Chinese man to win an Olympic swimming gold (when beating Park Thewan into second after the Korean was let into the final on appeal), Sun clocked the fastest time of one minute, 45.61 seconds in Sunday's semi-finals although Lochte, who won the 400 individual medley gold on Saturday, swam a more conservative semi, saving his energy for the men's 4x100 freestyle relay final, in which he finished second as part of the USA, where Yannick Angel pulled the swim of his life to beat him in the final 100m. Yang looks to be a strong favourite after his 400m but at 3/1 there’s a temptation to side with Angel, knowing that he has a slight measure of Lochte, although this is a final to watch and savour rather than go all in, with the knowledge that a gold for China’s Su Yang would be good for us on the whole.

Advice

1 pt Yannick Angel (3/1 Youwin)

Men’s 100m Backstroke: It must be a source of frustration for many that there’s no 50m backstroke at the Olympics much loved Brit Liam Tancock has won gold in that event at the last two World Championships and would rank a strong favourite to take gold. As it is, he’s got to go double the distance and that takes a lot of the raw speed away from him after the turn. It’s to be hoped that he can repeat Rebecca Adlington’s performance on Sunday and take a bronze medal anyway, but a gold looks to be a step too far.

This should come down to a straight fight between American Matt Grevers and Frenchman Camille Lacourt (pictured above), and while it’s hard to argue with Grevers being a hot favourite – He’s been the fastest on the planet at this distance for a long time, posted the fastest time in the heats, and now has no Aaron Piersol, the world record holder courtesy of his gold at the last Olympics, to contend with), a price of 2/9 overall (he’s 3/5 with Youwin) is far too short and World Champion Lacourt, who won the other semi-final in 53.03 to be second overall, is 5/1 in a virtual match despite the fact that he eased up late on in his semi. The ½ for him getting a medal seems to be better value than the 2/9 on Grevers.

Advice

1 pt Camille Lacourt (5/1 Stan James)

4 pts Camille Lacourt to medal (1/2 Ladbrokes)

Women’s 100m Backstroke: 4 years ago Emily Seebohm couldn’t handle the pressure of the Olympics and was only ninth in the final of the 100m backstroke, but she heads into today’s final a much stronger woman and athlete and it’ll take something exceptional to knock her off the top spot. Seebohm broke the Olympic record with 58.23sec in the heats - just 0.11sec short of the world record, set by 2009 world champion Gemma Spofforth at the height of the supersuit era - and backed it up with a dominant 58.39 in the semi-final, when more than a second ahead of US sensation 17 year old Missy Franklin. With more in the tank to come, she can win another gold for Australia and possibly threaten the World Record in doing so.  The 1/2 about Missy Franklin getting a medal of any kind is interesting despite the price given how strong she’s looked in her heats, while Australian Belina Hocklin and Japanese Aya Terkwaka are bronze medal contenders.

Advice

3 pts Emily Seebohm (4/5 Youwin*)  

 *With Seebohm being long odds on in places, it remains to be seen if this price is true or a rick. If the latter is true, then the 1/2 on Franklin making a medal might be the best way to go if the price doesn't put you off. 

Women’s 100m breaststroke: This looks to be a straight fight between Lithuanian teenager Ruta Meilutyte (left) and American Rebecca Soni, and with the former having posted a new European record, it’s hard to switch allegiances at this moment in time. Just 15, she blazed to a near Olympic record in semifinal two of the event with a scorching 1:05.21, the fourth fastest of all time in the event's history, surpassing the European record of 1:05.41 from the 2009 World Championships in the process.

Rebecca Soni won her semi-final in 1:05.98 and looks a banker to medal, although her chances of overturning the favourite on times look to be quite slim and she may have to settle for another silver medal following Beijing four years ago. Breja Larson did beat her in the US Olympic trials and while that form wasn’t confirmed in the semis, she is evens to win a medal (essentially racing for Bronze if the top two turn up) and that might tempt some, with Australia's Leisel Jones, the defending Olympic champion who won a silver medal at the 2000 Sydney Games when she was 15, finishing sixth overall.

Advice

2 pts Ruta Meilutyte (8/11 Betfair)

2012 Olympics - Men's Swimming (Day 1)

The Guide:

Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte will go head to head for the first of many duels
tonight

Swimmers use four strokes: freestyle (or front crawl), breaststroke, backstroke and butterfly. A medley race is one where all four strokes are used. Most of the races take place in the middle eight lanes of a 50 metre long, 10 lane wide pool, but a longer 10km race takes place in open water.

There will be 14 individual events at London 2012, added to three relays. The individual events comprise freestyle races over 50 metres, 100 metres, 200 metres, 400 metres and 800 metres. There are two events each in backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly (100m and 200m).

Men’s 400m Individual Medley: Usain Bolt and Yohan Blake duelling will be the biggest fight of the games for many but Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps going head to head is one of the biggest features of this year’s events and the 400m medley promises to be a crackerjack between the two, although there was a worry that the biggest shock so far of these games would see us without Phelps in the final, as his leisurely first time in the heats stopped the clock at four minutes 13.33 seconds, just 0.07 ahead of Hungary's Laszlo Czech,who missed out on the final despite being the silver medal holder.

Ryan Lochte, the new hotshot on the block and World Champion at this and 400m, was a best priced 2/5 when last seen at the time of writing and the value from Lochte has gone now, and this is now an event to watch and savour.

Men’s 400m freestyle: This event looks to be at the mercy of Sun Yang, after Korean swimmer Park Tae-hwan, a national hero after winning gold in Beijing four years ago, was disqualified for a false start during his heat. There looks to be little value here either with the champion sadly out, so tread cautiously unless medal betting. 

2012 Olympics - Women's Swimming (Day 1)

The Guide

Swimmers use four strokes: freestyle (or front crawl), breaststroke, backstroke and butterfly. A medley race is one where all four strokes are used. Most of the races take place in the middle eight lanes of a 50 metre long, 10 lane wide pool, but a longer 10km race takes place in open water.

There will be 14 individual events at London 2012, added to three relays. The individual events comprise freestyle races over 50 metres, 100 metres, 200 metres, 400 metres and 800 metres. There are two events each in backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly (100m and 200m).

200m Individual Women’s Medley:  One of the most competitive events of the whole games, the 200m individual medley has at least 5 in single figures for a gold medal, and none of the 5 winning would surprise. Young Chinese star Ye Shiwen (3/1 general favourite) won the 2011 World Championship with a stunning win after her huge kick in the final leg, roaring home to beat to defeat defending champion Ariana Kukors, an American seven years her senior, and she sets a high standard to aim at for all comers here if in the same form – with no real reason to think that she isn’t. Australia’s reigning Champion at both this and the 400m, Stephanie Rice missed out on a medal last year but by all accounts she is meant to be sharper this year round (see below, 400m IM preview and that will see her competing for medals in the finals later today, which is remarkable considering the shoulder trouble she’s had of late. 

A stronger hope may well be Alicia Coutts though, who was second to Shiwen in the World Championships and trades at around 11/2 with Skybet while being nearly half that price across the board, and at evens for a medal, the latter making most appeal. The US duo of Ariana Kukorz and Catlin Leverenz are tricky to separate. 2009 World Champion and 2011 World Bronze Medallist Kurokorz holds the record here but he world-record time, posted by Ariana Kukors at the 2009 World Championships and at the height of the high-tech suit era, is widely considered to be untouchable and serves no guide now it’s back to textile suits. Leverenz beat her at the Olympic trials and if repeating that, has a medal shot. And what of Britain? Hannah Miley was only 11^th fastest in 2008 but is judged to have come on leaps and bounds since with extra effort and her time in the trials for this event (2:10.77) would have been ‘good enough for any Olympic title, bar 2008 in the dawn of the turbo-suited era’. It’s unlikely that she can deal with the elite at this distance - her real chance to shine is at 400m, where she is Commonwealth Champion - but she can make the final and a lumpy bet on her doing so at 4/6 seems good value.

Advice

5 pts Hannah Miley to reach final (4/6 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Ye Shiwen (3/1 general)

Stephanie Rice has made a remarkable comeback from injury problems
and can gain a medal once again

400m Individual Women’s Medley: No woman from the US has won the 400m individual medley since Janet Evans in 1988 but wonderkidElizabeth Beizelis the outstanding choice based on her world title triumph last summer, where she won by more than two seconds when clocking of 4:31.78, beating Australia's Stephanie Rice and Great Britain's Hannah Miley. At the US trials, she beat Caitlin Leverenz by nearly three seconds and missed the US record by barely six-tenths of a second, so she comes here in top form and ready to swim for her life, so the 11/10 on gold is close to maximum bet potential.

Rice and Miley are the other big medal contenders, and both look excellent bets for medals today. Having already highlighted Miley’s strong progress, 4/5 for a medal is tempting with Ladbrokes given that her time of four minutes 32.67 seconds in the longer event was the second fastest ever swum in a textile suit (bettered only by Beizel). Rice posted a time of four minutes 33.35 seconds in Adelaide, which suggests she’s coming to the boil in her best event – she does hold the WC at this event that he claimed in such tenacious style at the Beijing games. At 13/8 for a medal, she is impossible to ignore. Hungarian Katinka Hosszu has been 4:32.83 this year and is said to be in contention for gold. Hosszu and Another European, Spain's Mireia Belmonte, has already been in the 4:33 range this season, so along with China's Li Xuanxu and Ye Shiwen, both warrant attention although the 3 at the front should come home in that order.

Advice

4 pts Elizabeth Beisel (11/10 general)

2 pts Stephanie Rice & Hannah Miley to make medals (13/8 Betfred, 4/5 Ladbrokes) 

2012 Olympics - Men's Road Race (Cycling)

The Olympics are now properly underway and one of the outstanding bets of the first day could well be Mark Cavendish to land Britain’s first gold medal in the men’s Cycling elite road race today. Cavendish was the only one of Britain’s elite squad not to come away with a medal in the Beijing games, but everything has been geared towards delivering him onto the line first from team GB and now if ever is the time for the World Champion to place an elusive triumph at this level on his glittering rostrum.

The course for the race – a London showcase – begins on The Mall, before the riders head south-west through the city. They will then cross the Thames at Putney Bridge and continue out through Richmond Park and past Hampton Court Palace, where they then head to Surrey for the main feature of the race in Box Hill, which is taken in a loop and climbed nine times for the men’s race, and through Leatherhead, Esher, Kingston, Richmond Park and back to The Mall for a sprint finish, assuming all goes to plan.  The latter stages of the Box Hill climb are where sprinters would normally be expected to struggle but a flat 40KM afterwards appeals as a lot of time to chase down a breakaway and a sprint finish does look fairly likely if the main bunch can reel in an attack. Great Britain may only have 5 riders with which to control the Peloton but there are few better riders to be tasked at keeping the race under control than Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome, David Millar, and Ian Stannard. To underline the strength in depth of that team, the 1-2 from the Tour De France, Stage 12’s winner, and the British National road race champion.

Froome is an expert climber as he showed throughought his second at the Tour De France, romping Stage 7 after setting one of the most brutal paces of the whole race, winner Wiggins himself successfully led out Cavendish twice in the Tour De France during the latter stages to repay Cavendish for his earlier efforts in the mountains, David Millar’s years of experience will be crucial in judging the pace of a race where no radios are allowed, and Ian Stannard (himself the British Road Race Champion and twice a part of Ben Swift’s stage wins during the Tour Of Poland) played a massive part in the World Championship win of 2011.

That win there shows a lot of the skills which will be needed and in many ways Cavendish has a similar task on paper, even if more difficult. At the 2011 World Championships in Copenhagen, Steve Cummings and David Millar closed down a gap between the breakaway of upto eight minutes to four, one of the main reasons for Cavendish’s win and the sprint finish, in which he beat Goss and Gripel.

Cavendish himself has won around the course in the Olympic test event (seen left), shedded weight to aid his climbing, and has proven that hilly stages are no problem to him, having won Stage 18 with the aid of Sky chasing down a breakaway after the Côte de Souillac – a category four climb which Betting.Betfair’s Jack Houghton will tell us is near identical to Box Hill with ‘a climb of 118m (Box Hill is 125m); over a distance of 2.67km (Box Hill is 2.51km); on a gradient of 4.4 per cent (Box Hill is 4.9 per cent); 42km out from a sprint finish (Box Hill is around 43km out)’. Given that had come on a hilly stage (there had been a Cat 4 and 3 on the same stage before that pint) it not becomes harder to question the climbing ability of Mark, who has been pace setting over the Pyrnees in this year’s tour. With 30KM of flat to chase down any breakways, the best riders in the race for the climbs and leadout trains, his claims are unmissable and it’s impossible to get away from him and he’s close to a max bet at 10/11 with Sportingbet.

Who else can challenge him? If this is likely to be a bunch sprint, then the likes of Peter Sagan and Andre Greipel have to be second and third on the list, as the market does have them (and rightly so).Between them these three men won all the flat stages of this year’s Tour De France and if you thin today will play out the same way then it’s silly not to have them onside. Sagan did best on long runs and stuff finishes in France but his seconds to Cavendish in the Tour’s latter stages suggest that he doesn’t lack for speed and crucially he’s by far the best climber of the sprinters on the elite circuit, so going around Box Hill 9 times will not faze him. Only seventh at the World Championships, he’s a better rider now and his ability to catch the wheels of other sprinters is second to none, so he should rank highly, while he can also get into a break and stay there. Griepel had a poor ending towards his tour but that doesn’t make him at 14/1 shot in a bunch finish if he gets around the course alright, with the possibility of his German team working alongside Team GB in a bid to keep the race under control (although they may put John Degenkolb in the break)

Fabian Cancellara, the reigning ITT Olympic Champion, is a 14/1 shot and his speed combined with ablity makes him an interesting shot as he was third in Bejing after getting into a break. Indeed, the breakway here may well be the highest quality seen in a road event this year. Those who would be looking to get away include Belgians Tom Boonen (the National Champion) and Philippe Gilbert, Holland's Niki Terpstra, Spaniards Alejandro Valverde and Luis Leon Sanchez, Irishmen Nicolas Roche and Dan Martin, Italy's Vincenzo Nibali, Germany’s John Degenkolb, Nowegian Champion Edwald Bosson Hagen, and France’s Sylvain Chavanel to name just a few, while Cadel Evans might actually be involved if not setting up a sprint for Goss later today.  With Gerrans, Evans, Rogers, and O’Grady there it’s tempting to get Goss too onside, for all that he’s hasn't got the better of Cavendish since he fell in the Giro a couple of years back. The Australian is 9/2 for a medal of any kind and that looks to be the way to go if you want him onside.

Luis Leon Sanchez appeals as a likely breakway man – his attack from the front in Foix was one of the best of the tour – although with both reigning Olympic champion Samuel Sanchez and José Joaquín Rojas’ both sidelined through injury, they’re that much weaker. At 8/1 for a medal (Alejandro Valverde is 16/1 for that honour) he is tempting, although the latter end of this stage might not lend itself towards a group staying away, with only the narrow roads likely to be a possible hinderance to the chasing pack preventing a sprint.

Advice

5 pts Mark Cavendish (10/11 Sportingbet)

1 pt Peter Sagan (13/2 Paddy Power)

1 pt Andre Griepel (14/1 Boylesports)

Olympics 2012 Preview

After 7 long years, more than 9 million pounds, nearly 9 million tickets, and the efforts of hundreds and thousands, the day is finally here. London 2012 kicks off in emphatic fashion today with the opening ceremony from 9 tonight, and the general mood in and around London today was one of excitement and optimism, a far change from the cries of boredom, wasted taxpayer money, and security concerns that had littered many minds (including those of yours truly) and papers until just last week.

The only questions for anyone now should be who wins the medals, and the gold medal battle between the two biggest nations on the planet has got many experts scratching heads.  For the last two games, nobody has touched China or the USA, and the bookmakers have it as an each of two contest between the Americans and Chinese. In Being, home advantage finally swung things the way of the Chinese, with a huge team of 639 athletes  racking up an astonishing 51 golds, 15 more than the US, leaving them with 100 in total, just 10 behind the US, who gained the most medals for the third games in a row.

Just a taster of what's to come tonight, taken on Wednesday 

Their team is nearly halved this time around but it’s still one of the highest quality outfits at the games and the major statisticians – Infostrada, Goldman Sachs, Daniel K.N. Johnson, Sports Myriad, Luciano Barra, Price Waterhouse, and the USA Today Olympic medal trackers – all have them winning at least 33 golds once again, and some have them still top of a medal table they romped 4 years ago.

World Championship performances (complicated by Luciano Barra) – which take no account for home advantage, which we will come to later – have China winning 43 golds and while it’s hard to see that happening again, the 7/5 on them topping the table is of interest in what’s a straight shootout.  The 15 medal advantage they have is a lot in hand and that makes the bigger price in a two horse race – any value about the US in the gold medal race went long ago – interesting. But with possibly 40 medals needed to top the rankings, the best bet may well be to take China to win 37 or more golds.

No predictions apart from Barra have them doing so but before Beijing they had won 32 golds successively at each games and it may be that the team sent here – while not the vintage of 2008 – is well capable of beating that target, with quality the emphasis rather than quantity this time around, with the traditional strongholds of table tennis, badminton, diving, gymnastics, shooting and weightlifting looking sure to reap nearly 30 medals once again, while there’s potential for swimming, athletics, judo, boxing and taekwondo to give the final push needed in a gold medal total push. 37 or more will be a hard target to achieve but nobody saw them making 51 last time around and I’d much rather be going above than below the line.

  

The USA will be powerhouses once again and can be comfortably expected to have a gold medal tally in the high 40’s, but they’ve got to be opposed in the betting on value grounds – they’re long odds on for most golds at just 13/20 and are 4/11 for most medals overall – and anyone wanting to get behind them is steered in the direction of Paddy Power’s 5/6 that they can total 103 or more medals, which would be my choice if forced to support the. They have only 66 less athletes in their squad this time around and it makes sense, more so than either of the medal choices.  There’s a slight worry that there’s little margin for error in the price though, and with many US strongholds under attack from all areas, it will be interesting to see if they are quite so dominant as usual. They should be looking to make 100 with ease but the line (as most of the over/unders are this year) is too tight to find any value.

Russia should be a clear third best once again and rack up plenty of medals, but the fight between them and Great Britain for third in the medal table is going to be one of the highlights of the games, with hopes high that Team GB can put up a strong showing and even take third in a medal race according to some. With Russia’s might and GB’s home advantage expect the fight for best of the rest to involve those two despite this being a Germany team high on quality, and much like above, it’s no easy choice deciding which of the two to pick.

The temptation is actually to side with Britain for third place in the medal table, given a record of steady improvement that saw them move into the top 4 well ahead of schedule in Beijing, the result of a decade of hard work and investment from all areas since it was revealed the games were coming to London, where they gained a record gold medal haul tally of 19 golds. Led by the omnipresent (to use one word to describe him) Charles Van Commenee, UK Athletics have gone above and beyond targets set so far, and the peaking effect looks to have come just in time for the games. Home advantage often has a massive effect upon the host nation at these games and with Great Britain only 4 behind Russia in Beijing, the 8/5 on them topping the table without the big two is actually rather tempting. The average rate of increase for the past three hosts in terms of gold medals is 62.33%, they have 541 athletes in 25 sports compared to 311 in 20 last time around, athletics improvement is expected, and the increased efforts since Beijing of UK Athletics can only bring more improvement, so an increased gold medal haul should be well within reach and they look worth supporting in small measures to come third in the medal table, as a swing of only 4 golds is needed and home advantage could easily do that.

On that same score, Russia have to be opposed on the total medals line of 81 with Paddy Power. The Russians are sure to rack up a hatful of medals ranging from 70 upwards, and they may find their traditional gold medal strongholds under attack from hosts Great Britain, while the US and China will obviously dominate the table once again. They gained 72 in Beijing and while they had 92 in total at Athens and 88 in Sydney, China’s squad is stronger now than it was in the earlier part of the century, and targets ranging from 60-80 (including one that had a 97.4 % correlation with the actual medals table of participating countries in the Athens games in 2004 and up to 96.9 % of the Beijing games in 2008) suggest that they can be kept under 81 in the long run.

Advice

`1 pt China to win most gold medals (7/5 Youwin)

3 pts China to win 37 or more gold medals (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 pt GB most gold medals without USA and China (8/5 Paddy Power)

5 pts Russia to win less than 81 medals (5/6 Paddy Power)

Olympics 2012 - Men's Football Preview

When you think of the Olympics football doesn’t necessarily come to mind and many British people will be looking forward to other events – rightly so – but don’t you dare assume that favourites Brazil are not itching to right the wrong of them having never won the gold medal in numerous attempts, having gained bronze and silver twice. One of those Bronze medals were gained four years ago in Beijing, where an Argentina side which contained Juan Ruqelme, Javier Mascherano, Pablo Zabaleta, Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, final hero Angel Di Maria and Ezequiel Lavezzi were far too good for Brazil in the second half, beating them with ease in the end. The public had expected more but in hindsight few stood a chance against ta team with so much future talent and it’s very much Brazil in the hotseat this time around.

The most known player in the squad is Neymar (left), the Santos hotshot who is ranked by many as close, if not on the same level as Ronaldo and Messi, having helped Santos win the 2011 Copa Libertadores – South America’s Champions League - (coincidentally for the first time since 1963, when Pele led his club to glory – but that’s just the beginning. He is flanked by Leandrio Damiao, scorer of 6 goals in the Copa Libratores, and Chelsea target Hulk, scorer of 26 Leagiue goals for Porto in the last two seasons, having been underused by Brazil until now, while they themselves are supplied by one of the world’s best midfields.

New Chelsea signing Oscar scored a hat trick in the U20 World Cup final and had been impressing all onlookers with Interactional over the past two years, while Ganso will be looking to prove the hype behind him before his knee injury was indeed correct, with a move from Santos on the cards according to many before this summer. Manchester United have looked towards 19 year old Sao Paulo midfielder Lucas Moura as one of the key components in the bid to grab back their title next season.  Sandro has played a key part in all that Spurs did well – and it was a lot - last season and the presence that he offers infront of the back four is an immense reassurance in this context, although Brazil hardly lack strength in depth in an area where they can call upon the World’s best centre back in PSG’s new signing Thiago Silva, while wig backs Macrcelo and Rafael offer a huge amount going forward in terms of delivery, even if there are some doubts about the latter going back on himself.

Such is the way things have turned out that Brazil are using the majority of the squad that they expect to represent them in 2 years’ time at the 2014 World Cup which they have been preparing for since 2007, and as such they have much the strongest squad at the completion though a mix of intense preparation and good fortune.  With automatic qualification towards the World Cup, Brazil have few opportunities to play competitive football and these are the last competitive games Brazil will play before the tournament, barring the Confederations Cup next summer (in a shortened format), so a bold show is expected (if not having already been expected of them), and anything barring a defeat in the gold medal match against Spain would be seen as a massive disappointment. There’s a slight worry they’ve not won the medal before but prior to Argentina's 2008 retention, there had been four consecutive first-time winners, and Spain amongst others have shown us that talent can break any seeming “curse” in world football, so the 6/4 about them winning the tournament (a short price for many) is taken with relish, given that their route to the final looks to be clear, and while second favourites Spain would be a fierce contest, they have a side well capable of beating them, if not going into the game with “confidence”.

Should Brazil fail to land a maiden title at this level then someone has to pick up the pieces and another South American side make the most appeal in Uruguay. They’ve been supported down from quotes that initially were as big as 12-1 but still look worth having onside as a saver given the progress they’ve made of recent years.

Officially South American’s top team on FIFA Rankings after reaching the World Cup semi-finals and then winning the Copa America the year after, they’ve made an excellent start to the qualification campaign for 2014, lying just a point behind in second despite having played a game less than Chile at the top of the standings.

They qualified here through their runners up spot in the 2011 South American Youth Championships – won in style by Brazil – having struggled early on before finding their feet late and come second ahead of Argentina in the “final stage” of what is effectively a youth Copa America.  That had followed a run towards the final of FIFA U-17 World Cup in Mexico, so their youth team – which is being looked to with as close to a home World Cup as they will get in just two years’ time given that they have a fairly ageing side by International standards – has experience of going through to the latter stages of tournaments, which is reassuring.

Leonardo Pais is one of many promising Uruguayan youth prospects

They should we well capable of beating all of their Group B opponents – the UAE and Senegal provide an excellent platform for two wins out of two before taking on Britain, who they are well capable of beating hands down. Facing one of Mexico or Switzerland (the two I’m backing to make it out of Group B) will not be easy, but they have one of the best sides in the completion and I expect them to make it through to the semis at least and then get a medal, for which they are 11/8, a tempting price as it pays out on them reaching the final and/or winning the fourth place playoff, which you would strongly fancy them to do so if Brazil and Spain make the final. The odds on them for Bronze are 4/1 as well, and that too should be added to compensate for them being knocked out by Brazil in a possible semi. With the third best squad in the completion and one of the best managers there in Oscar Tabrez, there’s little not to like.

I realise that this means I’m opposing Spain from an outright view technically, and of course that’s a massive risk to take, but Uruguay are twice the price of them outright and I honestly do believe that Brazil have the team to beat them in a one off game, so while it’s a big risk it’s one I’m happy to take here in the knowledge that they can be followed throughought the group stages – where they should coast through – and the quarter finals, while I don’t see them getting any shorter unless one of the top two fail to fire early on.

Their squad – which will be described in more detail during the Group profiles – is richly talented and experienced at this level, and they will make the semis of the final without fail barring accidents, so I can’t put anyone off them despite feeling the two South Americans more.

Great Britain are just 13/1 to win with home advantage behind them but it’s hard to get truly behind them from a betting point of view with Stuart Pearce’s side having been thrown together at the last minute – this is their first tournament in 56 years – and while they should be able to get through their group, they lack depth in the squad to seriously contend with the big three and could be vulnerable to Switzerland or Mexico in the first knockout rounds, while all of England’s top players barring Micah Richards and Jack Butland are unavailable.

I expect Mexico and Switzerland to make it through Group B and both are interesting long term proposition, with slight preference for Mexico given that they have won the Toulon tournament already this summer and can count upon the services of Fabian, Giovani and Peralta at this games while several members bring experience with them.  For a huge longshot, Egypt make the most appeal of the African nations. Turmoil after the Uprising of Mubarak stopped them from making the Cup of Nation but good past tournament form – they drew against Brazil in the U20 World Cup 2 years ago and were knocked out by Argentina – and they are worth supporting in the group stages after facing Brazil today.

Advice

6 pts Brazil (6/4 general)

1 pt Uruguay (7/1 general)

1 pt Uruguay Bronze Medal (4/1 Skybet) 

2012 Olympic Football - Men's 1st Round

Honduras (12/5) v Morocco (13/10)

Honduras and Morocco look to be fairly evenly matched based on their routes here – both were second in their respective groups on the way here, while Morocco were second only to Senegal in the CAF qualifying zone. The fact that Honduras kept just one clean sheet in what looked a weak group barring Mexico – who they admittedly pushed all the way to the final – is a fair negative though and that just lends out in link to Morocco. Both of their wins were 1-0 and at 6/1 that seems a good way to start the day with bigger fish to fry.

Advice: 1-0 Morocco (6/1 188Bet)

Mexico (5/4) v South Korea (5/2)

Mexico, winners of the Toulon tournament this summer, the Under 17 World Cup in 2011 and semi-finalists in the Under 20 equivalent that same year, have lost just two of their ten Olympic matches and look to have a cracking chance of beating South Korea and getting off to a flyer in their quest for the quarter finals and beyond. They have a strong squad for this level and plenty of youth, and govn there’s only 16-1 for the tournament, 5/4 for this opener is worth taking.

Advice: 4 pts Mexico (5/4 general)

Spain (4/11) v Japan (8)

Spain, the dominant force in world and European football after their Euros success and holders of the U21 European championship, have a serial winning pedigree for this event and should have little trouble overcoming Japan in their tournament starter. In winning the U21 Championship – much like their seniors – they kept 3 clean sheets in 4 games after an opening 1-1 draw, and monopolization of the ball may starve Japan of the chances to get into the game, so a win to nil at 6/5 seems a good choice.

Advice: 2 pts Spain to win to nil (6/5 Coral)

UAE (16) v Uruguay (2/7)

Uruguay are one of the best teams at this summer’s Olympic games and much like Brazil and Spain, are using this as a springboard to find new talent in preparation for the 2014 World Cup – possibly even more so than Spain and Brazil, whose talents are well known already – and they should be looking to put the UAE to the sword. The UAE did get here unbeaten but this is a much higher quality test for them and the value may be in backing Uruguay to push the game over 2.5 goals if their  class shows.

Advice: 1 pt Over 2.5 goals (9/10 Stan James)

Gabon (4) v Switzerland (4/5)

Switzerland were second only to Spain in the 2011 European under-21 Championship and a 1-0 loss to Senegal should have set them up nicely for a good crack at Gabon, despite the loss of star duo Granit Xkhaha and Xerdian Sahiquri before the tournament. The Swiss kept clean sheets against everyone but Spain and can make a winning start here based on those foundations.

Advice: 3 pts Switzerland (4/5 Ladbrokes, Coral), 1 pt Switzerland to win to nil (7/4 general)

Belarus (4/5) v New Zealand (3)

Belarus put in a good fight against Spain before going down in the semi-final at the European Championship and they’ll like their chances against New Zealand, who picked up one point in three games at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and face another big step up in class (10 of of their 11 qualifying goals were against Tonga).

Advice: 1 pt Belarus (5/6 general)

Brazil (2/9) v Egypt (18)

The quality of this Brazil side is just scary and they should face no trouble in getting towards the knockouts and righting the wrong that has seen them fail to win Olympic gold in football. Egypt should do just fine through this tournament and may have a bigger say later on but they should ease through. The 4/5 on them winning to nil should be taken before it goes.

Advice: 2 pts Brazil to win to nil (4/5 general)

Great Britain (4/6) v Senegal (5)

Great Britain have home advantage but are a long way shot of troubling the top teams on paper and their team having been thrown together at the last minute, they could take a game or two to warm up, as shown by their relative 2-0 tonking against Brazil. This is a step down but it could still be difficult and the 5/6 on under 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal.

Advice: 1 pt under 2.5 goals (5/6 Bet Victor)

Tour De France Stage 20 - [Rambouillet - Paris Champs-Elysees]

Congratulations to Bradley Wiggins and all at Team Sky!

Congratulations and Bloody well done mate! Bradley Wiggins is getting the credit and adulation he really deserves now but I take no hesitation in heaping it all upon him once again and he processes into Paris this year with the yellow jersey on his back and the honour of being the first British person ever to win the Tour in 99 years of trying, with Chris Froome three minutes behind and Italian Vincenzo Nibali over 6 minutes in arrears.

From day one he’s been in complete control of the race, and Wiggins - just 5-4 to win the Tour beforehand following wins in the Paris Nice, Romaidie and Crtierium Du Dauphine – never really let go of the yellow jersey after putting down a big marker in the Prologue, one of three ITT’s on this tour. After winning the other two in sensational style, victory’s always looked guaranteed and the champagne that he has this afternoon is going to be richly deserved, barring accidents.  So too will the celebrations for Tomas Vockler, who has brought this tour to life with his enigmatic brilliance, bringing his all to the table in the same way that team Sky did every single day, and young guns Peter Sagan, the outstanding winner of the points Jersey, and the much deserved white jersey of Teejay Van Gerdenen, who came fifth overall, a massive effort considering he worked for Cadel Evans in the mountains.

Today’s stage is a procession into Paris for everyone to have a good time and celebrate the end of the race, before 10 super-fast laps of the capital and a then sprint finish which has a sharp right hander just before the bend.

It really suits the experienced types and proper flat out sprinters, so it’s no surprise to see Mark Cavendish – who has won the tour’s final stage every single time he’s finished the tour – as a hot odds on favourite. Cavendish was expected to become largely anonymous throughough this year’s tour thanks to the duty of helping his Team Sky team mates proved by taking Stage Two in Tournai without any help from his team and then again when taking Stage 18, this time assisted by Wiggins and Bosson Hagen. With both men expected to busy themselves to help him today, the odds on is a fair bet, although he’s too short for us to seriously consider unless properly smashing into him.  The hard work of Lotto Belisol has helped Jurgen Van Den Boreck into fourth overall and Andre Greipel, who has won three stages, could be called arguably the best sprinter on this year’s tour. He’s been exceptional weather in or out of the train, and has the turn of speed that flat stages demand, so he should be right there and the 4/1 on him is fair, although it’s hard to see him beating Cavendish unless Lotto get ahead of Sky at the top of the train. Some have suggested that backing him each/way could be a way to prospect for those with better each/way terms, but at 4/1’s he’s too short for us to consider.

The best way to eek out value looks to be to find the third placed man, either each/way (although I do believe that the top two places will be taken by Cavendish and Gripel and Cavendish). The two best sprinters not mentioned are Peter Sagan – who has the yellow jersey in the bag – and Matthew Goss – who has no stage win to his name but would hardly be more deserving of one. Sagan is sure to want another stage win but he has the green jersey in the bag, thrives of a stiff finish, and will be riding the final sprint for the first time. Goss needs things as flat as a pancake,  seems adept at hanging onto the wheel and getting into a good position despite not winning a stage, and has been involved in four bunch sprint finishes this year. The 16/1 looks to be a good way to end the tour for value seekers.

A good case can be made for Tyler Farrar – who’s had a rotten Tour for many reasons – given that he made fourth last year behind Greipel and also was third in 2009, so the fact that he was involved at the end of Friday’s stage agurs, well although his team has been decimated by injury. At 50’s he could be worth the risk for some, while Bosson Hagen, who does such a good leadout job and can sprint to a high standard – he’s a winner on the tour before – and was second last year may well foil our plan by placing due to positioning, as Mark Renshaw took second in 2009.

Advice

1 pt each/way Matthew Goss (16/1 Betfred)

Tour De France - Stage 19 [Bonneval - Chartres 53.5km Individual Time Trial]

I’m not quite sure that the measured guys at Team Sky believe in having Cake, or let alone the icing on said cake, but Mark Cavendish’s second stage win and their fourth has taken this tour to new heights and with the British team looking nailed on to land a fifth victory in the individual trial, it’s all rosy for Brailsford, Yates and co. The 53.5KM stage between Bonneval and Chartres is a near exact copy of the 1^st with the only difference being the extra 12 KM here, which if anything suits Bradley Wiggins (pictured) more given his dominance over the longer time trial scene.

Wiggins was expected to take a big hand in the opening Time Trial – he started just 2-1 but he was expected to be beaten by Cancellara – but by covering the 41.5 in just 51.24 he smashed his team mate Chris Froome by 35 seconds and jumped into a yellow jersey lead that he’s not relinquished since.  The winner of the Tour De France elect – this was set to be the stage that decided the tour de France but any of his rivals will need to take 2.21 minutes out of him plus to pass him here and this is his domain – Wiggins is 2/5 across the board and it is hard to imagine him getting beaten, such to the point that even that long odds on price is hard to fault in any way, and barring accidents he should win (and even then the long haul distance with a car just behind should really help him). You won’t get rich backing him, and there’s much better value to be found anyway, but good luck trying to beat the Brit. What’s really interesting to know is that his two major time tiral wins this year – in the Dauphine and Stage 9 of this Tour – have been by 34 and 35 seconds respectively – and the 6/4 on him winning by that margin seems like a very nifty wager.

The one man who bookmakers think is close to capable is team mate Cristopher Froome, who has shot onto the main scene with several massive climbs in Wiggins’s bid for the Yellow Jersey  (including a stage win and two seconds), and shocked many by going faster than world champion and time trial king Fabian Cancellara in the opening seconds and holding that time to the finish to beat Cancellara by 22 seconds at the end. He should finish second once again and a clear one at that, going into the podium place that he’s held ever since. 

The others? Slyvain Chavanel was fifth in Stage and is France’s champion but is now out, while both TT specialists Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin sadly out of today, which means that white Jersey and future Tour winner Teejay Van Garderen looks to be an exceptional bet for third. The standout performer for BMC this year, with Cadel Evans cracking in the mountains after losing time in the time trial, and he was a clear fourth on Stage 9, who was faster than Cancellara at both checks before the finish and ended up clear of Chavanel in fifth. With no other rider in 20 seconds of that time he set, the 13/8 about him being best without Wiggins and Froome is a no brainer and close to maximum bet. That market also features the likes of David Millar, and Bert Grabsch, a former TT Champions, although it’s surprising to see Cadel Evans and Peter Velits behind those given that they were sixth and seventh on Stage 10 respectively and the 14 and 33/1 offered about them with 3 places ¼ each/way might be the bet for those who want some real value, although I’m more than happy with my big double.

Advice

5 pts Teejay Van Garderen w/o Froome and Wiggins (13/8 Skybet)

2 pts winning margin to be 30-60 seconds (6/4 Blue Sq) 

German Grand Prix Practice 3 Preview 2012

We’ve yet to see what the teams can really do on the Hockenheim track barring an exciting period in P2 yesterday when lap time after lap time was being lowered, with Pastor Maldonado (pictured) taken his second P2 of the season largely thanks to getting the best wet lap in between the dry and wet period. With the final practice session set to start on a dry track, we should see a real sig of the pace that we expect around the track, and that should see this season go to one of the elite. P3 this year has been dominated by the likes of Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren and Ferrari on top form, while Lotus have done well of late, with Romain Grosjean making the top 3 in the last two FP3’s. Raikkonen and Grosjean are closely matched by the latter was faster yesterday and is a bit of value for a top 3 finish at 3/1 today. Of the main players, Red Bull look to have most up their sleeve so Vettel would make most appeal in the straight win betting although he makes the top 3 more than he wins, so 7/10 is available if you’re willing to take a cut in odds.

Advice

1 pt Romain Grosjean Top 3 in Final practice (3/1 Bwin) 

Tour De France - Stage 19 [Bonneval - Chartres 53.5km Individual Time Trial]

I’m not quite sure that the measured guys at Team Sky believe in having Cake, or let alone the icing on said cake, but Mark Cavendish’s second stage win and their fourth has taken this tour to new heights and with the British team looking nailed on to land a fifth victory in the individual trial, it’s all rosy for Brailsford, Yates and co. The 53.5KM stage between Bonneval and Chartres is a near exact copy of the 1^st with the only difference being the extra 12 KM here, which if anything suits Bradley Wiggins (pictured) more given his dominance over the longer time trial scene.

Wiggins was expected to take a big hand in the opening Time Trial – he started just 2-1 but he was expected to be beaten by Cancellara – but by covering the 41.5 in just 51.24 he smashed his team mate Chris Froome by 35 seconds and jumped into a yellow jersey lead that he’s not relinquished since.  The winner of the Tour De France elect – this was set to be the stage that decided the tour de France but any of his rivals will need to take 2.21 minutes out of him plus to pass him here and this is his domain – Wiggins is 2/5 across the board and it is hard to imagine him getting beaten, such to the point that even that long odds on price is hard to fault in any way, and barring accidents he should win (and even then the long haul distance with a car just behind should really help him). You won’t get rich backing him, and there’s much better value to be found anyway, but good luck trying to beat the Brit. What’s really interesting to know is that his two major time tiral wins this year – in the Dauphine and Stage 9 of this Tour – have been by 34 and 35 seconds respectively – and the 6/4 on him winning by that margin seems like a very nifty wager.

The one man who bookmakers think is close to capable is team mate Cristopher Froome, who has shot onto the main scene with several massive climbs in Wiggins’s bid for the Yellow Jersey  (including a stage win and two seconds), and shocked many by going faster than world champion and time trial king Fabian Cancellara in the opening seconds and holding that time to the finish to beat Cancellara by 22 seconds at the end. He should finish second once again and a clear one at that, going into the podium place that he’s held ever since. 

The others? Slyvain Chavanel was fifth in Stage and is France’s champion but is now out, while both TT specialists Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin sadly out of today, which means that white Jersey and future Tour winner Teejay Van Garderen looks to be an exceptional bet for third. The standout performer for BMC this year, with Cadel Evans cracking in the mountains after losing time in the time trial, and he was a clear fourth on Stage 9, who was faster than Cancellara at both checks before the finish and ended up clear of Chavanel in fifth. With no other rider in 20 seconds of that time he set, the 13/8 about him being best without Wiggins and Froome is a no brainer and close to maximum bet. That market also features the likes of David Millar, and Bert Grabsch, a former TT Champions, although it’s surprising to see Cadel Evans and Peter Velits behind those given that they were sixth and seventh on Stage 10 respectively and the 14 and 33/1 offered about them with 3 places ¼ each/way might be the bet for those who want some real value, although I’m more than happy with my big double.

Advice

5 pts Teejay Van Garderen w/o Froome and Wiggins (13/8 Skybet)

2 pts winning margin to be 30-60 seconds (6/4 Blue Sq) 

German Grand Prix Practice 2 Preview 2012

The 1^st practice at Hockenheim offered positive vibes for Mclaren, whose Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton set the pace in a rain-interrupted first session which saw the major upgrades from teams such as McLaren and Lotus being tried out in public for the first time. Jenson Button’s leading time was 0.498 seconds quicker than Hamilton, which offers a lot of encouragement for the previously struggling Brits, although the times must be taken with a pinch of salt given that Button got the only real fast dry lap that anyone had , crucially on soft tryes, so what happens in this second session will give us a much clearer picture of what to expect over the weekend.

Whatever you can say about their pace, their new upgrades - redesigned sidepods, aimed at improving airflow over the car – have made and encouraging start and with McLaren having had the fastest car in this session 5 times from 10 Grands Prix, both Hamilton and Button have to be respected, with Hamilton making far more appeal in the rain than his team mate.

It’s not being harsh to think they had an easy time of it in P1 though, and Red Bull and Mercedes, the only other teams to have won P2 this season, will be going much harder for glory. So too will Lotus, whose Kimi Raikkonen is the chosen man of the two drivers to have a special upgrade (pictured) that was attracting all the attention in the paddocks through the morning. Raikkonen didn’t set a timed lap until there was less than 22 minutes to go but he was just half a second off the pace when the late spin of Bottas saw a yellow flag halt his charge.  At 22/1, if things dry out, he is a big price.

Advice

2 pts Lewis Hamilton (7/2 general)

1 pt Kimi Rakkionen (22/1 Skybet) 

Tour De France - Stage 17 [Blagnac - Brive-la-Gaillarde]

It’s been seen as inevitability for a while but yesterday rubber stamped the procession of Bradley Wiggins into the yellow jersey, him and his team-mate Chris Froome crossing the top of the penultimate climb of the day with a significant lead over their only remaining rival, the Italian Vincenzo Nibali. In fact, such was their dominance over the other remain contenders – in a stage which ended up being dominated by the best of the best barring breakway winner Alejandro Valverde – That Chris Froome may well feel that he could have won had he not checked his speed to help Wiggins up the final climb of the day, in accordance with quite a few observers.

Today’s stage of the Tour De France is classified as a flat stage but it’s hard to see why it merits that distinction with four categorised climbs amongst its ranks. The first third of the day is flat but the middle section is distinctly lumpy, and it’s just ripe for a breakway today with teams such as Euskaltel, Lampre, AG2R, Cofidis, Saur, Katusha, Omega and GreenEdge all looking set to leave empty handed given tomorrow’s time trial is a Sky benefit and that one of Griepel or Sagan should take the final day’s stage in Paris.

A breakway is surely set to take the day and with plenty to look back on in this year’s tour, there are clues as for potential winners. It’s a stage that needs both speed and stamina, so the likes of Pierrick Federigo, who got into a break when sprinters were expected to dominate and easily held off Christan Van Der Velde, looks to have a chance if getting into the break for FDJ Big Mat, who have had an excellent tour and consistently get men into the breaks without fail.

Orica Green Edge have been one of the teams without a tour win despite getting Goss to finish in the 1^st three on 3 occasions, but both have men in Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini that have the speed to get into breaks and also the ability to climb – the latter is a Milan San Remo winner – and at 22 and 25/1 respectively they might well be worth adding to the portfolio.

And last but not least, with 4 climbs today, Michael Morkov of Sakobank might be worth having, given that he featured in the most important escapes of the first three stages, where he gained enough points to lead the Polka dot jersey before Chris Froome took it. 

Phillipe Gilbert might be one of the men to prosper from today’s bunch and he’s not without a turn of foot (he has been in poor form) while Astana’s Alexander Vinokourov will give you fun and games, although whether he can win or not is a different matter.  Of all the sprinters, Peter Sagan - the best climber of the bunch and the best uphill finisher in a sprint too – makes by far the most appeal and he might be worth a saver in running if the Peloton stay together as there will be few faster at the finish.

Advice

1 pt each/way Pierrick Fedrigo (33/1 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Simon Gerrand (25/1 Boylesports)

1 pt each/way Michael Albasini (22/1 Boylesports)



1 pt each/way Michael Morkov (28/1 Blue Sq) 

German Grand Prix Preview 2012

This  had been one of the tightest in recent memory and there’s been little to separate the teams, but a pattern’s beginning to emerge with Red Bull, Ferrari and Lotus now leading the pack, with Chris Horner’s outfit taking 3 pole in the last 4 races – and they proved once again that they had the fastest car when taking the 1-3 at Silverstone last time out, with Mark Webber chasing and passing Fernando Alonso with relative ease and Sebastian Vettel providing an ever present threat.

Despite being half the price and lacking a win around his home circuit, Vettel makes infinitely the more appeal of the two and can be backed at 11/4 to break his duck infront of his home crowd, and that makes a lot of appeal. A second faster than anyone else in Valencia from pole, he would have won if it hadn’t been for alternator failure and there are good reasons to upgrade his third place at Silverstone.

A slow start from fourth – a position I feel he could better in dryer conditions during qualifying -  compromised his race, as he battling to get past Ferrari's Felipe Massa and the Mercedes of Michael Schumacher for third during much of his opening stint, while Vettel was chasing Alonso from the very 1^st lap (seen literally below). This in turn forced him to pit 4 laps earlier than he wanted and from then on he could never quite reel back the gap towards his team mate or Alonso, understandable given the large gap that opened up between the two. In that case, he actually did quite well to get the gap down to just under 10 seconds and with a place on the front row, or better luck in running, he looks to be an excellent shout.

Another reason to have Vettel onside is the return to Hockenheim. He hasn’t won here but he’s got form figures 8-2-3-4 in the last four years and he’d have gone much closer had it not been for a spin at turn 10 which put him 10 seconds behind the top three at that time – he was lapping half a second lower during the race as well – but the speeds have changed around in the next year and with the German’s Red Bull car lightning quick around this kind of flowing track – see their form around Bahrain, Valencia, and Silverstone he makes a huge amount of appeal. Mark Webber – twice a winner when Vettel has only made the podium, in both cases starting ahead of him - could ruin it for us, so backing the winning car to be a Red Bull at 6/4 is an excellent backup.

Fernando Alonso should be there or thereabouts, with his Ferrari now lapping up there with the best of the field and his natural driving talent carrying him to the podium with alarming regularity, although he had everything go his way on Sunday (baring what might be called an early switch to the softer tyres) and was still passed late, so a podium finish – generally around odds against - appeals more than the race win for him, while Felipe Massa seems to be a level behind his team mate at this moment in time despite the noted improvement in performance from the Brazilian.

The betting has it as no contest barring those four but they’re wrong to dismiss the Lotus pair of Romain Grosjean and Kimi Raikkonen given the pace they’ve shown all season. Lotus lie third in the constructors championship but had it been for better luck they may well be second (barring the heroics of Fernando Alonso) and few teams would be more deserving of a race win this season here. They’ve suffered some desperate luck this season and that was evident once again at Silverstone, where Romain Grosjean was just 17 seconds behind Mark Webber at the end despite being forced to pit for a new nose on the first lap, and he and team mate Raikkonen were topping the fastest lap time charts. The above performance from Grosjean becomes even more impressive considering that he beached his car at the end of Q2 – a better grid position may would seen him up there from the start – and with a completed formguide record of 6-3-4-2-6 (I remain insistent he’d have won in Valencia had he not had mechanicals problems as well) the 11/10 on him finishing in the top 6 looks to be a no brainer despite the fact he has a 5 second grid penalty for a gearbox change. Some may ask why we aren’t simply using Raikkonen instead – A lumpy bet on Lotus for a double points finish at 4-5 with Bwin should explain that.

And last but not least, what of the enigmatic Pastor Maldonado? Having caught him at the right time in Spain, if anything he’s proven that wasn’t a fluke despite crashing out in each race since, but if staying on track, then a points finish should prove bread and butter to the Williams man. He thrives over a long race if staying in one piece and Germany’s set up should suit the car if able to claim a  decent starting position.

Advice

6 pts Red Bull to win the German GP (6/4 general)

3 pts Sebastian Vettel (11/4 general)

3 pts Romain Grosjean Points finish (10/3 general)*

3 pts Lotus Double finish (6/4 Bwin)*

2 pts Pastor Maldonado Points finish (8/11 Blue Sq) 


UPADTE: Romain Grosjean ran off the track during Q2 and never got back on, after showing worrying under-steer through practice 3 and Q1 as well. Lying in 15th, a 5 place grid deduction leaves him 18th and he looks to be the major weak link in our staking plan, with Maldonado in sixth, Vettel on second in the wet - excellent considering how much he struggled at Silverstone in similar conditions - and now the main hope is for a dry race and a clean run.

England v South Africa - 1st Test Preview

The 1^st test between England and South Africa has thankfully not been hampered by the weather, with a full day’s play taking place as we write. The much waited test series between England and South Africa started with a bang for the visitors when Andrew Strauss was brought out by some brilliant batting from Jonathan Trott and Alistair Cook, who took them to 172-1 until Trott went too hard and played a loose drive at an innocuous ball from Morkel. Despite this you can still get about England winning the test and that looks to be an absolute no brainer, with the weather only standing between them and a win.

This might seem strange to some who read the series preview given how highly I rate South Africa and the fact that the draw along with 1-0 England are tipped, but the trend with series in England has often been for visiting teams to start a little slowly mainly for reasons of acclimatization against a well prepared, fit team (generally known to be the fittest team in cricket), but in South Africa’s case the lack of actual match practice may well have hampered them in failing to clamp down fully on England’s start which lends the advantage towards the home side.

England have won six of their last 9 tests at the Oval, with only 1 defeat since 2001, while they romped home with the 1^st test against India here last year by an innings and eight runs. This won’t be anywhere near as one sides but South Africa have never won in 13 tests here at the Oval, haven’t won an opening test against a major nation since 2007 and average more than 30 an innings less than the hosts per innings in their last 10 tests, so the 13/8 offered on them winning this is extremely tempting and the obvious choice.

Advice

3 pts England to win 1^st test (13/8 general)