This had been one of the tightest in
recent memory and there’s been little to separate the teams, but a pattern’s
beginning to emerge with Red Bull, Ferrari and Lotus now leading the pack, with
Chris Horner’s outfit taking 3 pole in the last 4 races – and they proved once
again that they had the fastest car when taking the 1-3 at Silverstone last
time out, with Mark Webber chasing and passing Fernando Alonso with relative
ease and Sebastian Vettel providing an ever present threat.
Another reason to have Vettel onside is the return to
Hockenheim. He hasn’t won here but he’s got form figures 8-2-3-4 in the last
four years and he’d have gone much closer had it not been for a spin at turn 10
which put him 10 seconds behind the top three at that time – he was lapping half
a second lower during the race as well – but the speeds have changed around in
the next year and with the German’s Red Bull car lightning quick around this
kind of flowing track – see their form around Bahrain, Valencia, and
Silverstone he makes a huge amount of appeal. Mark Webber – twice a winner when
Vettel has only made the podium, in both cases starting ahead of him - could
ruin it for us, so backing the winning car to be a Red Bull at 6/4 is an
excellent backup.
The betting has it as no contest barring those four but they’re wrong to dismiss the Lotus pair of Romain Grosjean and Kimi Raikkonen given the pace they’ve shown all season. Lotus lie third in the constructors championship but had it been for better luck they may well be second (barring the heroics of Fernando Alonso) and few teams would be more deserving of a race win this season here. They’ve suffered some desperate luck this season and that was evident once again at Silverstone, where Romain Grosjean was just 17 seconds behind Mark Webber at the end despite being forced to pit for a new nose on the first lap, and he and team mate Raikkonen were topping the fastest lap time charts. The above performance from Grosjean becomes even more impressive considering that he beached his car at the end of Q2 – a better grid position may would seen him up there from the start – and with a completed formguide record of 6-3-4-2-6 (I remain insistent he’d have won in Valencia had he not had mechanicals problems as well) the 11/10 on him finishing in the top 6 looks to be a no brainer despite the fact he has a 5 second grid penalty for a gearbox change. Some may ask why we aren’t simply using Raikkonen instead – A lumpy bet on Lotus for a double points finish at 4-5 with Bwin should explain that.
Despite being half the price and lacking a win around his
home circuit, Vettel makes infinitely the more appeal of the two and can be backed
at 11/4 to break his duck infront of his home crowd, and that makes a lot of
appeal. A second faster than anyone else in Valencia from pole, he would have
won if it hadn’t been for alternator failure and there are good reasons to
upgrade his third place at Silverstone.
A slow start from fourth – a position I feel he could better
in dryer conditions during qualifying -
compromised his race, as he battling to get past Ferrari's Felipe Massa
and the Mercedes of Michael Schumacher for third during much of his opening
stint, while Vettel was chasing Alonso from the very 1st lap (seen literally below). This
in turn forced him to pit 4 laps earlier than he wanted and from then on he
could never quite reel back the gap towards his team mate or Alonso,
understandable given the large gap that opened up between the two. In that
case, he actually did quite well to get the gap down to just under 10 seconds
and with a place on the front row, or better luck in running, he looks to be an
excellent shout.
Another reason to have Vettel onside is the return to
Hockenheim. He hasn’t won here but he’s got form figures 8-2-3-4 in the last
four years and he’d have gone much closer had it not been for a spin at turn 10
which put him 10 seconds behind the top three at that time – he was lapping half
a second lower during the race as well – but the speeds have changed around in
the next year and with the German’s Red Bull car lightning quick around this
kind of flowing track – see their form around Bahrain, Valencia, and
Silverstone he makes a huge amount of appeal. Mark Webber – twice a winner when
Vettel has only made the podium, in both cases starting ahead of him - could
ruin it for us, so backing the winning car to be a Red Bull at 6/4 is an
excellent backup.
Fernando Alonso should be there or thereabouts, with his
Ferrari now lapping up there with the best of the field and his natural driving
talent carrying him to the podium with alarming regularity, although he had
everything go his way on Sunday (baring what might be called an early switch to
the softer tyres) and was still passed late, so a podium finish – generally around
odds against - appeals more than the race win for him, while Felipe Massa seems
to be a level behind his team mate at this moment in time despite the noted
improvement in performance from the Brazilian.
The betting has it as no contest barring those four but they’re wrong to dismiss the Lotus pair of Romain Grosjean and Kimi Raikkonen given the pace they’ve shown all season. Lotus lie third in the constructors championship but had it been for better luck they may well be second (barring the heroics of Fernando Alonso) and few teams would be more deserving of a race win this season here. They’ve suffered some desperate luck this season and that was evident once again at Silverstone, where Romain Grosjean was just 17 seconds behind Mark Webber at the end despite being forced to pit for a new nose on the first lap, and he and team mate Raikkonen were topping the fastest lap time charts. The above performance from Grosjean becomes even more impressive considering that he beached his car at the end of Q2 – a better grid position may would seen him up there from the start – and with a completed formguide record of 6-3-4-2-6 (I remain insistent he’d have won in Valencia had he not had mechanicals problems as well) the 11/10 on him finishing in the top 6 looks to be a no brainer despite the fact he has a 5 second grid penalty for a gearbox change. Some may ask why we aren’t simply using Raikkonen instead – A lumpy bet on Lotus for a double points finish at 4-5 with Bwin should explain that.
And last but not least, what of the enigmatic Pastor
Maldonado? Having caught him at the right time in Spain, if anything he’s
proven that wasn’t a fluke despite crashing out in each race since, but if
staying on track, then a points finish should prove bread and butter to the
Williams man. He thrives over a long race if staying in one piece and Germany’s
set up should suit the car if able to claim a
decent starting position.
Advice
6 pts Red Bull to win the German GP (6/4 general)
3 pts Sebastian Vettel (11/4 general)
3 pts Romain Grosjean Points finish (10/3 general)*
3 pts Lotus Double finish (6/4 Bwin)*
2 pts Pastor Maldonado Points finish (8/11 Blue Sq)
UPADTE: Romain Grosjean ran off the track during Q2 and never got back on, after showing worrying under-steer through practice 3 and Q1 as well. Lying in 15th, a 5 place grid deduction leaves him 18th and he looks to be the major weak link in our staking plan, with Maldonado in sixth, Vettel on second in the wet - excellent considering how much he struggled at Silverstone in similar conditions - and now the main hope is for a dry race and a clean run.
UPADTE: Romain Grosjean ran off the track during Q2 and never got back on, after showing worrying under-steer through practice 3 and Q1 as well. Lying in 15th, a 5 place grid deduction leaves him 18th and he looks to be the major weak link in our staking plan, with Maldonado in sixth, Vettel on second in the wet - excellent considering how much he struggled at Silverstone in similar conditions - and now the main hope is for a dry race and a clean run.
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