2012 Olympics - Men's Road Race (Cycling)

The Olympics are now properly underway and one of the outstanding bets of the first day could well be Mark Cavendish to land Britain’s first gold medal in the men’s Cycling elite road race today. Cavendish was the only one of Britain’s elite squad not to come away with a medal in the Beijing games, but everything has been geared towards delivering him onto the line first from team GB and now if ever is the time for the World Champion to place an elusive triumph at this level on his glittering rostrum.

The course for the race – a London showcase – begins on The Mall, before the riders head south-west through the city. They will then cross the Thames at Putney Bridge and continue out through Richmond Park and past Hampton Court Palace, where they then head to Surrey for the main feature of the race in Box Hill, which is taken in a loop and climbed nine times for the men’s race, and through Leatherhead, Esher, Kingston, Richmond Park and back to The Mall for a sprint finish, assuming all goes to plan.  The latter stages of the Box Hill climb are where sprinters would normally be expected to struggle but a flat 40KM afterwards appeals as a lot of time to chase down a breakaway and a sprint finish does look fairly likely if the main bunch can reel in an attack. Great Britain may only have 5 riders with which to control the Peloton but there are few better riders to be tasked at keeping the race under control than Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome, David Millar, and Ian Stannard. To underline the strength in depth of that team, the 1-2 from the Tour De France, Stage 12’s winner, and the British National road race champion.

Froome is an expert climber as he showed throughought his second at the Tour De France, romping Stage 7 after setting one of the most brutal paces of the whole race, winner Wiggins himself successfully led out Cavendish twice in the Tour De France during the latter stages to repay Cavendish for his earlier efforts in the mountains, David Millar’s years of experience will be crucial in judging the pace of a race where no radios are allowed, and Ian Stannard (himself the British Road Race Champion and twice a part of Ben Swift’s stage wins during the Tour Of Poland) played a massive part in the World Championship win of 2011.

That win there shows a lot of the skills which will be needed and in many ways Cavendish has a similar task on paper, even if more difficult. At the 2011 World Championships in Copenhagen, Steve Cummings and David Millar closed down a gap between the breakaway of upto eight minutes to four, one of the main reasons for Cavendish’s win and the sprint finish, in which he beat Goss and Gripel.

Cavendish himself has won around the course in the Olympic test event (seen left), shedded weight to aid his climbing, and has proven that hilly stages are no problem to him, having won Stage 18 with the aid of Sky chasing down a breakaway after the Côte de Souillac – a category four climb which Betting.Betfair’s Jack Houghton will tell us is near identical to Box Hill with ‘a climb of 118m (Box Hill is 125m); over a distance of 2.67km (Box Hill is 2.51km); on a gradient of 4.4 per cent (Box Hill is 4.9 per cent); 42km out from a sprint finish (Box Hill is around 43km out)’. Given that had come on a hilly stage (there had been a Cat 4 and 3 on the same stage before that pint) it not becomes harder to question the climbing ability of Mark, who has been pace setting over the Pyrnees in this year’s tour. With 30KM of flat to chase down any breakways, the best riders in the race for the climbs and leadout trains, his claims are unmissable and it’s impossible to get away from him and he’s close to a max bet at 10/11 with Sportingbet.

Who else can challenge him? If this is likely to be a bunch sprint, then the likes of Peter Sagan and Andre Greipel have to be second and third on the list, as the market does have them (and rightly so).Between them these three men won all the flat stages of this year’s Tour De France and if you thin today will play out the same way then it’s silly not to have them onside. Sagan did best on long runs and stuff finishes in France but his seconds to Cavendish in the Tour’s latter stages suggest that he doesn’t lack for speed and crucially he’s by far the best climber of the sprinters on the elite circuit, so going around Box Hill 9 times will not faze him. Only seventh at the World Championships, he’s a better rider now and his ability to catch the wheels of other sprinters is second to none, so he should rank highly, while he can also get into a break and stay there. Griepel had a poor ending towards his tour but that doesn’t make him at 14/1 shot in a bunch finish if he gets around the course alright, with the possibility of his German team working alongside Team GB in a bid to keep the race under control (although they may put John Degenkolb in the break)

Fabian Cancellara, the reigning ITT Olympic Champion, is a 14/1 shot and his speed combined with ablity makes him an interesting shot as he was third in Bejing after getting into a break. Indeed, the breakway here may well be the highest quality seen in a road event this year. Those who would be looking to get away include Belgians Tom Boonen (the National Champion) and Philippe Gilbert, Holland's Niki Terpstra, Spaniards Alejandro Valverde and Luis Leon Sanchez, Irishmen Nicolas Roche and Dan Martin, Italy's Vincenzo Nibali, Germany’s John Degenkolb, Nowegian Champion Edwald Bosson Hagen, and France’s Sylvain Chavanel to name just a few, while Cadel Evans might actually be involved if not setting up a sprint for Goss later today.  With Gerrans, Evans, Rogers, and O’Grady there it’s tempting to get Goss too onside, for all that he’s hasn't got the better of Cavendish since he fell in the Giro a couple of years back. The Australian is 9/2 for a medal of any kind and that looks to be the way to go if you want him onside.

Luis Leon Sanchez appeals as a likely breakway man – his attack from the front in Foix was one of the best of the tour – although with both reigning Olympic champion Samuel Sanchez and José Joaquín Rojas’ both sidelined through injury, they’re that much weaker. At 8/1 for a medal (Alejandro Valverde is 16/1 for that honour) he is tempting, although the latter end of this stage might not lend itself towards a group staying away, with only the narrow roads likely to be a possible hinderance to the chasing pack preventing a sprint.

Advice

5 pts Mark Cavendish (10/11 Sportingbet)

1 pt Peter Sagan (13/2 Paddy Power)

1 pt Andre Griepel (14/1 Boylesports)