Euro 2012 - The Final

Just one game stands between Spain and a place among the immortal footballing sides. The likes of Brazil’s 1958-62, 1970-73 and 1998-02 outfits; West Germany’s elite of 1970-76, Hungary’s 1950’s squad, Argentina’s 1980’s one man “hand of god led team”, Italy and Uruguay’s early giants. The reigning European Champions and World Cup winner have become just the fifth team in History (possibly sixth if you take the great Italy side of the 1930’s) to reach the final of three major tournaments, and they’re rated strong favourites to lift the trophy tomorrow. Standing in their way however, is the one team you wouldn’t want to be facing in a final according to not just stereotype, but history, in that most specialist of knockout teams, Italy. Vicente Del Bosque’s side have done things the hard way to get here and so have Cesare Prandelli’s Italy and it’s not hard to see nothing separating them at all, as both teams have pretty much been the same from their first game – a thoroughly entertaining draw – to now in terms of varying performance.

First things first, and in a tight game the biggest value may well be to back the opening time of the first goal to come between 51 and 60 minutes at 11/1. It’s been the case in 3 of the last four finals, but also seems to be a good bet based on the general half time trends surrounding Spain knockout games in general. We all know that Spain’s general style is to seek the ball, keep it between themselves, and stay patient in working out their openings in the absolute belief that their style (however boring some may find it) will eventually be enough to wear down the opposition and win their game regardless of the opposition or the situation. Italy themselves tend not to be opened early on in games – two of their games have been 0-0 at the break, while they’ve not trailed at any point and have sometimes flagged a little just after the half time interval in terms of performance, based on their strong showings before half time during the tournament at least.  It’s a situation that could well see the game starting slowly if Spain can exert the control of the ball they’ve had in previous matches, then it’s more than likely they’ll start growing into the game and get their first serious opportunities entering the beginning of the second half.

Del Boqsue’s men are 5/4 to win in 90 minutes and that’s sure to get its fair share of attention from the general football punting public but that makes no appeal. They’re undoubtedly the best side in the world on their day and deserve massive respect upon that basis but they’ve not impressed totally at this tournament and for all that they’ve not let in a goal in 9 knockout games at this level, they’ve shown more vulnerability now than ever during this tournament and have failed to win 2 of their 5 games in getting ere. Take into account the fact that one of those games was a complete rollover in Ireland (add France’s pathetic effort into that category) and then Croatia giving them big problems, not to mention Italy holding them to a 1-1 draw, and you can see why they might be opposable at least in normal time.

Italy have actually tracked a very similar patch towards Spain. After impressing many more than Spain during the 1-1 draw to open the tournament they then went onto dominate possession against Croatia and Ireland only to miss quite a few chances in games that they dominated, looking vulnerable only in patches. Their performance against England was even more impressive, with the only question over their win being why it didn’t come in 90 or 120 minutes. Much like Spain they’ve had more of the ball, been very hard to beat, and could possibly be accused of scoring less than they should have over the course of the tournament – although I don’t think it could be stretching things to say that they’ve been more entertaining than the Spanish throughought the tournament.

There’s also plenty of evidence to suggest that Italy can overturn Spain in 90 minutes though. Half of Iker Casillas’s 12 saves came against the Azzuri in the 1^st game despite Spain having 64% of possession, and there’s no questioning who was more impressive in the semis. Germany were widely expected to brush aside Italy but instead themselves were blown away by a superb performance from not just Andrea Pirlo and Mario Balotelli (below), but Ricardo Montolivo and especially Antonio Cassano  - crucial in giving Italy the early impetus needed to go on and beat Germany – where Italy attacked with vigour, panache and style from all areas, in a performance that could have seen them score 4 or 5 realistically, with Marchisio missing twice from close range and Di Natale missing a one on one. If they can reproduce the same kind of performance tonight, then there’s a very real chance that they can lift the trophy and the 14/5 on them winning in 90 minutes did tempt me (you can get 8’s on a 1-0 and 16’s on a 2-1) a lot initially after the semi-final win.

Finding a winner between the two is sure to be very hard though, and the draw at 9/4 makes the most appeal out of the three 90 minute outcomes given not just how resilient Spain have been but also Italy’s extraordinary record not just in finals and tournament football, while the same record that some say played such a big part against Germany is evident here, with Prandelli’s (himself unbeaten against La Furjia Roja) side unbeaten since 1920 excusing shootouts in competitive football against the Spanish.  There’s never been a 0-0 in the final of the Euros but this looks to be as close as we’ll get and the 6’s upon that happening looks to have some real mileage tonight of all nights if we have a damp squib, and 1-1 too is tempting – although there’s a general feeling that this game will be tighter than the opening encounter. With 4 of Spain’s 9 knockout games having worked out as 1-0 wins to Del Bosque’s side having been goalless at the break, a repeat at 11’s is too big with Boylesports at 11’s for my liking. And last but not least,Spain to win in extra time also makes appeal. The Spanish method of play traditionally works towards them scoring late, and it was notable how much extra threat the Spainsh carried during extra time against Portugal after disappointing in 90 minutes

The 0-0 half time draw seems to be a good took to have onside but it’s hard to get enthused about a price of just 5/4 for a correct score of any kind and there might be more mileage in backing he time of the first goal to be after 27 minutes with Stan James at 4/5 – only slightly shorter odds than the 0-0 halftime score and a slightly increased chance, which makes sense given that this would have paid out in 3 Italy games so far (inc their meeting against Spain) and that it also would have paid out for Spain against Croatia too. It relies upon a goal being scored but there’s never been a goalless European final in 14 attempts and having backed the 0-0, it makes sense to get onside.

Advice – Outright

3 pts 1st goal after 27 minutes (4/5 Stan James)

1 pt 1^st goal to come during 51-60 minutes (11/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Spain 1-0 (11/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Spain to win in extra time (11/1 Bet365)

1 pt No goalscorer (6/1 Stan James)

Man Of The Match

Andres Iniesta - in a situation
that may be likely to repeat
itself on Sunday -has been Spain's outstanding plater so far this tournament 

In Euro 2008 there were 31 ‘Man of the Match’ awards and not one of the 31 was given to a player that was on the losing team in 90 minutes (or the team that failed to win the trophy during the tournament). 22 of the 31 were awarded to a player that had scored a goal, with 25 of the 31 awards given to players that played either in midfield or attack, while only 2 goalkeepers landed the ‘Man of the Match’ award with the remaining 4 going to defenders. This suggests that – much like the guide to winning player of the tournament – you need to be with a forward from the winning team to land the man of the match performance, especially in the final.

Spain’s Andres Iniesta (above) – one of the three players to win a MOTM without scoring this tournament -e has been named man of the match against Russia, Chile, Paraguay, Holland in the World Cup final, Italy and Croatia (much obliged to Sid Lowe of the Guardian for this) meaning that (from 17 appearances) he’s won the man of the match in over a third of the games he’s played. He’s had 13 shots on target in just 5 games, has been the best player for Spain so far, spends a large amount of time on the ball and has scored crucial goals throughought his career, including the e dramatic late semi-final equaliser from outside the area at Stamford Bridge that guided Barca past Chelsea and into the 2009 Champions League final in Rome, and the winner in the World Cup final (along ith numerous other . Take the 5/1 that he’s Man of the match once again.

Should Spain be turned over by Italy, then it’s obvious that Andrea Pirlo would be the man to get the award; With 3 to his name already he’s sure to be the man that everyone looks to and while he’s not the only outstanding player that Italy have – I have always rated Cassano as Italy’s most important attacking talent – he’s likely to be at the heart of everything the Azzuri do and with the likes of Montlivo, De Rossi and Marchisio all having been subbed in the name of security by Prandelli during the tournament (Casssano having sometimes failed to last out the full 90 minutes) then he becomes a strong favourite to land the award in an Italy win and the price of 5/1 is a good cover.

Advice – Man of the Match

3 pts Andres Iniesta (5/1 general)

1 pt Andrea Pirlo (5/1 general) 

Euro 2012 Semi Final - Spain v Portugal

It’s a mark of how good this tournament has been that we come here with all 4 semi-finalists (Spain, Portugal, Germany and Italy) being truly deserving of their place at this stage; They’ve been the 4 best teams at this tournament. A relatively incident free tournament which has seen 69 goals, just the 3 red cards, only the one goalless draw and several top quality goals in the most important games, has now boiled down to arguably the cream of the crop, and Spain are rated just a shade of odds on to set up a meeting with either Italy or Spain by beating Portugal, the last of the 3 tips we have left running tonight. As World and defending champions that’s understandable and many punters – including those lucky enough to get odds against about them beating Croatia and an extremely below par France – are sure to give strong support to the still tournament favourites, who come here incredibly trying to defend their legendary tiki – taka football in the wake of a “boring” victory over France, with some Spanish media and many fans suggesting that they’d been unambitious in their 2-0 win over Laurent Blanc’s side.

Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be at the focal point of Portugal's Euro 2012
challenge........

Saturday’s 2 goal hero Xabi Alonso has defended his team’s style of play, saying that "Whatever people say I don't think we are going to change" but some perspective is needed.  The Spanish have scored 8 goals so far in the tournament and lead nearly every attacking stat according to Opta’s statistical data, and those who seem to find issue with their play must surely recoil at the style of teams such as losing quarter finalists England and Greece, both of whom mustered just 5 goals while playing stoic football.  The main reason that Saturday’s quarter final didn’t offer much enjoyment for enthusiasts would be the limp performance of Laurent Blanc’s side who started with 2 right backs and never offered any real threat going forward. It’s been a surprise not to see them shoulder most of the blame for that limp night in Ukraine. That’s not to say that Spain have been the best side at Euro 2012 – that award at this stage has to go to Germany – but they’ve still be one of the highest quality side and they’re sure to take the beating. Whether they should be just evens to accomplish the toughest task they’ve had so far is another matter altogether, with both Italy and Croatia having made them sweat hard for extended periods of the game.

...While Andres Iniesta has been Spain's outstanding player of the 

And what of Portugal? Initially in our portfolio to cover for Holland possibly underperforming, Paulo Bento’s men have improved in bundles since their opening defeat to Germany (where they offered too much time to Germany before producing a very catching late rally in the last 20 minutes) and belied – to some extent – quotes of 20/1 being banded about them winning the tournament beforehand.  Ever since then they’ve been far more forward and far more entertaining, and while their threat does come mainly from Cristiano Ronaldo, it’s a strategy that has worked well for them though, with Ronaldo leading the Golden Boot on 3 goals having had more shots than anyone at the tournament.

There’s a slight worry that if Ronaldo can be stopped then Portugal have no threat and thanks to the lack of a proper striker – only Silvestre Varela has really had an impact in their games so far – that’s probably true, but everything else about them seems to be good, as they have one of the best defences in the competition (Bruno Alves and Pepe have been outstanding so far) while Fabio Coentrao, João Pereira and João Moutinho all have genuine quality. Spain will be a tough task for them but they made things very awkward for the Spainsh at the last World Cup and may be dare I say, a better side this time?

There’s no value for us in backing Portugal at 7/2 (considering that if they make the final they would reward an each/way bet at 20/1) or the Spanish at odds against, although plenty of people will be interesting in doing so. Spain have not conceded a goal in their last eight knockout fixtures, with Italy, Russia, Germany, Portugal, Paraguay, Germany again, Holland, and France trying (add “” for Blanc’s Frenchmen) and failing to breakdown their rear-guard in knockout action. 5 of those games, including the last competitive Iberian Derby at the World Cup, have been goalless at half time, which would make best such as the half time draw and 0-0 half time score very obvious.  What’s more notable is that 4 of those games have ended 1-0 to Spain after a goalless first half, and the same eventuality at 17/2 with Paddy Power seems to be a very good hedge against the disappointment of our outright fancies going out if Spain starve Portugal of the chances to make an impact on the game, while Portugal themselves are resolute when they want to be, having frustrated Germany until a lucky break gave Gomez the opportunity. Another strong Spain trend is for most of the goals to be in the second half – which has been the case against Ireland, Italy, and Croatia so far this tournament, while it was the case with their World Cup run to the final – and Portugal too have been involved with games that have come to life after the break, with their opener against Germany and their quarter final against the Czech Republic both being settled by late goals.

Advice

3 pts 2^nd half highest scoring (5/4 Betfred)

1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Spain 1-0 (17/2 Paddy Power)

Euro 2012 - England v Italy

All 3 of the European Championship quarter finals have been relatively one sided, with Spain, Germany and Portugal (who completely dominated their quarter final despite winning only 1-0) making a superb set of semi – finalists, but England v Italy looks set to be tightest game of the lot and it’s likely that the record audiences tuning into the BBC will all be biting their fingernails for a long, long time tonight.

England came into this tournament with expectations at their lowest ebb following the displacement of Fabio Capello as manager along with a whole host of injury problems, but new manager Roy Hodgson has done an excellent job with the limited time and resources he’d inherited from the previous reign, grabbing a good result against France before one goal wins v Sweden and Ukraine. For the optimists or hope seekers, there were various positives to come out of those games – England battled back from 2-1 down against Sweden and showed more going forward in that game than any of the 5 other internationals they’ve played under Hodgson – while they did keep France out despite being dominated for the latter half of the game.  Pessimists are sure to notice how many times that Sweden (2 goals from setpieces and 7 shots on targets) and Ukraine (57% of possession and unlucky not to score in their last group game despite being poor) got inbehind a side that’s been famed for their defensive style under Hodgson. 

Italy themselves have always been seen as the most defensive major side in World Football, but they were the most surprising and impressive side for many when holding Spain to a 1-1 draw and creating many of the chances in a well contested game, opening the eyes of many who felt that they hadn’t got much to offer going forward. Prandelli’s slick style of football - they once made more than 800 passes in an entire game during their qualifying – was once again evident when they drew 1-1 with Croatia, going ahead at the 39^th minute in a game that they should have been well clear at half time. Indeed, taking the chances that the likes of Andrea Pirlo – so deeply impressive throughought this tournament – have created has been a major problem for them, with only Mario Balotelli’s goal against Ireland taking them to a 2-0 win. That’s not to say that Italy lack anything going forward; They had the same amount of shots on target as Spain and more than Coratia and it’s fair to say that they should have scored more than once on both occasions, but the lack of goals does have to be considered a worry.

Another worry too for Prandelli has to be the fact they they’ve failed to see out a 90 minute game without letting in a goal for longer than is comfortable until holding out Ireland – who themselves where allowed more chances than comfortable. The injury to Giorgio Chellini is sure to make things even more uncomfortable at that end although they can count on Europe’s tightest defence courtesy of Juventus stoppers Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzgli.

England too are tight when they want to be – the fact that they’ve kept clean sheets in three of their last 5 games emphasizes this – but it’s hard to see them keeping out this Italy side based on their displays so far. With both sides having major strengths and weaknesses, the draw appeals as being the most likely outcome for this game. England have drawn eight of the 12 competitive fixtures since losing to Arengtina in 1986, while Italy have drawn 9 of their 17; A 1-1 draw also makes appeal, with England having scored in 21 of their last 22 internationals while Italy were held to a 1-1 draw twice in the Group stages.

And last but not least, the game to go to penalties at 4/1 also seems to be good value to have onside. England have been taken to penalties at Euro 2004 and at the World Cup 2 years later, while Italy have gone to the death 3 times since 2000.  

Advice

3 pts Draw (2/1 general)

1 pt 1-1 draw (11/2 Bet Victor)

1 pt game to go to penalties (4/1 Stan James, Paddy Power)

European Grand Prix 2012

There have been seven different winners of the seventh Grands Prix that have been run this season but Sebastian Vettel looked to have the pace in hand to break that sequence when flying into pole yesterday and the 0.324 seconds that he had in hand over Lewish Hamilton is the biggest pace discrepancy we’ve seen all season and if getting a good break from pole (like he did in Bahrain), he has to be backed at odds again from the pole for the third time in a row at this track.

Vettel and Maldonado may be smiling again

The same three tenths of a second that Vetttel had in hand of Hamilton separated the next 5 home but Pastor Maldonado – so much better during the race than qualifying, during which he was terrific yesterday – seems big at 7/2 for a podium place. He’s only made the points once apart from his win at Barcelona but he should have done so in Australia and Mayalsia while he got taken out before the race began in Monaco. From the front here, he looks to be some value at 7/2 to finish on the podium assuming he can get a good break and hold his position. Romain Grosjean is sure to push hard for the podium spot and is feared as usual along with the Mercedes of Rosberg (and Kobayashi to a point), but Maldonado has proven that he can hold off anyone in his car when conditions are right – indeed a price of 28/1 on him to win is very, very tempting and possibly worth a small interest.

Advice

4.5 pts Sebastian Vettel (10/1 Blue Sq)

1 pt Pastor Maldonado podium finish (7/2 general)

0.5 pt Pastor Maldonado (28/1 Betfred) 

Euro 2012 - England v Ukraine

England can book a quarter final with either Italy or Spain by winning their final Group game against Hosts Ukraine tonight and they should be backed hard to do so, despite their price collapsing to 11/10 with Stan James.  With several internal problems beforehand – the resignation of Fabio Capello and then ensuing drama over his replacement being just one of those – expectation’s been at its lowest ebb but they’ve made a more than fair start towards life in the tournament and they should be confident of making at least the quarter finals tonight in style.

An opening game against France was one approached with some trepidation but they took the lead and then defended well to keep Les Bleus at bay in a second half which saw them dominate the game, ending up with 65% possession – a good start considering how short Blanc’s men are for the trophy.

Their next game against Sweden was widely expected to be an England win and it proved so, but the most notable thing about that victory was the spirit and coolness they showed when going 2-1 down against Sweden, going onto the front foot and getting straight back into the game through the substitution of Theo Walcott, who provided a goal and an assist to turn the game around in superb style. The defensive lapses which saw them go 2-1 down have to be a worry for a side that had become so accustomed to winning 1-0 and close games right out under Hodgson, but on another note it was good to see that the side has got a genuine goal threat going forward. Steven Gerrard had a poor club season but he’s been England’s biggest threat from out wide and already has two assists to his name, while Danny Wellbeck’s pace and movement upfront has been a ringing endorsement of his selection upfront. In many ways it’s shame that Andy Caroll’, so badly criticised by many throughought the season but impressive against Sweden, is likely to be ousted for the returning Wayne Rooney, as his physical presence would have been more than likely to give Ukraine a whole heap of trouble. Rooney’s the better player for many people but his tournament record isn’t great and while he’s trouble to deal with on his day, the relationship between the two established strikers had looked good.  Rooney should be more than well-equipped enough to deal with Ukraine’s centre backs and this seems to be an ideal opportunity to get back into the scoring fold, while Ashley Young should also feel invited to get forward and improve upon what he’s shown so far.  

Ukraine looked to have a great chance with a fairytale victory over Sweden but that’s since been shown up as a rather less impressive win than many thought with the Swedish being exposed by England, and they were utterly outclassed by France last time out, who should have scored more than the 2 they got on board. England will be just as hard to play for them and the hosts could be going out with a whimper tonight, with the 2-0 correct score appealing in Andriy Shevchnko’s absence.

Advice

4 pts England (21/20 Paddy Power)

1 pt England 2-0 (9/1 Bet Victor)

Euro 2012 - Italy v Ireland

Italy have gone winless in 6 games at international tournaments but they’ve been one of the most eyecatching teams at Euro 2012 and they can push for the quarter finals with a win over Ireland, who have been well beaten in both their games so far. Cesare Prandelli’s men need to then hope for a Spain or Croatia win in the other game, with a draw of 2-2 or higher eliminating Prandelli’s men and a 1-1 draw needs a big winning margin for the Azzuri.

As seen below, we expect Spain to do their part of the bargain, while we also see this game as an Italy win, so while there’s sure to be a certain amount of nervousness in some of the Italian camp, I’m pretty happy with the standing of my 8/11 on Italy to qualify (struck before a ball was even kicked elsewhere on the blog). Unbeaten in 12 competitive games under Cesare Prandelli, Italy had been seen as lively outsiders by some in the competition but still had a lot to prove according to others in the tournament, although they answered many questions with an impressive performance against champions Spain in their opening game, forcing many of the game’s best chances and moving into a well - deserved lead before being pegged back by Cesc Fabregas’s equalizer. They did much the same against Croatia, creating chances and taking a well-deserved lead before being pegged back late on, although the Azzuri on that day didn’t help themselves by dropping back deep and allowing Coratian pressure to build until the deserved equalizer from Mario Mandzukic late on. Some could say that they had failed to take advantage of their strong opening when drawing against Coratia and the truth is that they were wasteful with their first half opportunities, but against Ireland they should create more than enough chances to put the game to bed. 

The Italians will be delighted to welcome back Andrea Barzagli, who’s s expected to feature despite missing the opening two matches with a calf problem, and while they’ve looked extremely proficient and attractive under a 3-5-2, the switch of Daniele De Rossi to a midfield role and Thiago Motta to a far more forward attacking role should give Italy even more potency in attack, while Andrea Cassano has been excellent so far – even more impressive given that his life, let alone his footballing career, was on the line just a few months ago – and Di Natale’s inclusion is more than deserved after his performance against Spain and he might be the finishing touch that Italy need to complement their midfield performances so far, led by the likes of Andrea Pirlo (left).

Ireland themselves have been beaten 7-1 in their two games but they shouldn’t go home too disheartened. In Croatia and Italy they’ve played the first and eight best teams in the world based on FIFA Rankings, and there’s no shame in their two heavy losses, despite the fact they’ve played slightly below themselves so far with goals conceded before the tenth minute of both halves in their two games so far, but they should be looking to make it to the next Euros (with 24 teams going instead of just 16) and maybe an easier draw there should see them have a shout at making the quarters. For now through, they look to have too little to trouble Italy, and with a win to nil looking too short at even the extended 5/4, the best way to play this might be to back 2 and 3-0 correct scores at 6/1 and 19/2, with Ireland having let in 3 and 4 goals so far in their respective games.

Advice

1 pt 2-0 Italy (6/1 general)

1 pt 3-0 Italy (19/2 Bet Victor)

Euro 2012 - Croatia v Spain

Conspiracy theories have dominated the build-up to Spain v Croatia but they look misplaced and punters should be siding with Spain to advance to the quarter finals on the back of a second straight win.

The talk has all been about the possibility of a 2-2 draw (or higher) in the Spain-Croatia match, which would force Italy out on goals scored, no matter what sort of result they post against the Irish. Many of this comes from the 2-2 result between Denmark and Sweden which saw Italy knocked out, although that game was settled by a 88^th minute equalizer in what had been a fiercely competitive contest during the game. It should be membered that neither Spain or Coratia are totally safe, so to play for a 2-2 draw (or anything but a win) seems like a ridiculously risky tactic. The 2-2 draw has since moved out to 10’s but that still seems too short iith most bookmakers going 16's on that before this situation arised. 

Vicente Del Bosque’s defending champions were held to a 1-1 against Italy but could consider themselves unlucky not to have won the game with the introduction of Fernando Torres, who spurned three late chances to win the game. He rewarded the side with his inclusion in the Ireland game by scoring a double – something which should give him the confidence - and it’s clear that La Fuorja’s Roja’s threat is enhanced with the Chelsea striker playing as a no.9, even if he’s not quite a replacement for David Villa.

Coratia were impressive against Ireland and even moreso against Italy when fighting back hard in the second half, but they could have been well behind in that game beforehand and their main problem (as with every team who plays against Spain) is likely to be getting enough of the ball to pose a real threat even with the high threat of strikers Mario Mandzucik and Nikita Jelavic, while Spain have conceded just the one goal in their last 6 matches at major tournaments.

The value seems to have gone from the Champions with 8/15 generally being the best offered about them, but there might be an inch of value in backing the Champions to get on the scoresheet twice through the correct scores. 2-0 and 2-1 Spain pay 6/1 and 15/2 respectively and both look big in light of the class that Spain possess going forward, while it’s not inconceivable to think that Croatia could work an opening  on the counter attack with the quality they showed against Ireland and Italy when going forward.

Advice

1 pt 2-0 Spain (6/1 general)

1 pt 2-1 Spain (8/1 Bodog) 

Euro 2012 - Portugal v Holland

Tournament tips Holland and Germany faceoff for a place in the quarter finals – assuming things in the other group game go our way, that being Germany beating Denmark – although Holland need to win by two clear goals, no easy task against Portugal, who look to be in pole position to make into the quarter finals as things stand.

Paulo Bento’s side were widely fancied to fall at the first hurdle in their Group of death – they were just 4/6 to go out before a ball kicked – but they surprised quite a few with how much they created against Germany when the shackles had been let off while they were determined and very deserving of their late 3-2 win over Portugal – and they will be a fearsome test for the Dutch or Group A winners (most likely to be Russia according to the markets at the time of writing) based on that evidence.

The Dutch are considered favourites to win and barring some better finishing from Robin Van Persie, Klaas Jan Huntellar and Arjen Robben at points, then they could easily have 6 points instead of none, but such are the standards at International level that they are now a gigantic looking 6/1 to make it through to the last 8 with most bookmakers.

We all know about the story of the Denmark game, where 29 shots couldn’t produce a single goal – or even close to half of them on target – but the Germany game brought their defensive flaws to the arena fully, with Jetro Whilems in particular having a nightmare against Gomez, and it’s those defensive flaws that make them hard to fancy against Portugal, as I’m almost certain that they’ll need three if they’re to go through.

The second worry on Holland’s part is that Portugal have the tools to shut the game down if they really want - Germany were restricted to just 3 shots on target in their opening game despite having 50% of possession –while they also have the firepower in their ranks to take advantage of Holland’s leaky defence, as they could have had more than the 3 goals scored against Portugal despite having just 40% of the ball in the game (another area they are adept at it taking the most of their chances).

Are Holland capable of beating Portugal? Of course, but doing it by the two goal margin is a tall order given that they look sure to leak at least once through either open play or a set piece delivery, while Pepe and Bruno Alves are a fearsome centre back paring to deal with. The 4/6 that both teams score is available only with Stan James, so the 3/1 and 7/2 that either the Netherlands or Portugal can win while conceding would be where we’d look. Also of interest are the 2-1 correct scores in either sides’ favour, which are both 9/1 which looks generous given the circumstances the game will be played in. Holland are or strongest tips for the tournament outright, but they look dead in the water following their losses to Denmark and Germany, so we’re banking on Germany winning against Denmark and most likely Portugal claiming a win, point or a one goal defeat.

Advice

No bet, but strongly consider the BTTS + win double for your choice (3/1 and 7/2 that either the Netherlands or Portugal wins while conceding with Coral) 

Euro 2012 - Denmark v Germany

The slight odds on being offered about Germany beating Denmark to stretch their winning streak to 14 competitive matches could easily be one of the best bets of the tournament so far at Euro 2012 and should be backed accordingly. Joachim Low’s side have won their first two games at the tournament with all the efficiency, if not all of the panache, that they used to top their qualifying group with a 100% record but they’ve shown more than enough to deserve the hype that has seen them put forwards as the second most likely tournament winners for many behind only Spain, with many having put Joachim Low’s side as favourites. Remarkably they can still be usurped from the competition if lose to Denmark by two goals or more and Portugal defeat the Netherlands, but such a situation looks inconceivable and Joachim Loew’s side look little sort of a gift at 3/4 with 188BET.

Their first game against Portugal didn’t please too many but breaking down Paulo Bento’s side was never going to be as easy a task as they wanted and they showed great resilience and patience to find the winner late on with a little bit of luck, and while it could be argued that Holland once again had the better of the clash in their blockbuster encounter, they were full value for the win and regularly tested the leaky Dutch defence, with Hummels and Badstuber had excellent chances to score, all before half time.

Denmark themselves deserve credit for being in with a shout at this stage of proceedings – they’d been entirely written off when the draw was made – and they’ve shown more than just the resilience that saw them scrap a win over Holland with an outrageous amount of luck, fighting back from 2-0 down to draw level before conceding the winner late on against Portgual, having shown some useful skill in the wide areas when launching their comeback. They’re a useful side – ranked 11^th in the World – and are also no mugs, but on what we’ve seen they have to be considered inferior to both Holland and Portugal, both sides who Germany have beaten fair and square so far without too much difficulty when on top. They also come here without veteran Dennis Rommedahl, which could be a bigger blow than many actually think. Some have suggested that Germany could ease off but there should be no danger of them doing that with the threat of elimination – even if small – still there in some measure, while competition for places is going to intensify with Jerome Boateng suspended and one of Toni Kroos or Andree Schurrle pushing for a place if Low does rest one of the star studded midfield quartet of Ozil, Scheiwnsteiger, Muller or Kehdira. One thing he certainly won’t be doing is resting upon his morals however, and Germany look like an outstanding bet. Value seekers should consider the fact that Denmark have scored in every qualifying game and also scored in both games so far, so the 2 & 3-1 correct scores (a best priced 15/2 and 16/1 respectively), while a 1 goal winning margin (11/4) and Germany to win while conceding is a 5/2 shot with Coral.

Advice

5 pts Germany (3/4 Bet Victor)

South Africa v England - 2nd Test

Despite the 5 point defeat, there was genuine hope for many of England’s fans from the first test against South Africa and the positive impression that was created at times by many is likely to be challenged strongly when they move upto Johannesburg, and altitude, today in the second test.

South Africa’s new look side were given a few scary moments in the first 40 with England pushing the ball hard into contact and holding strong in defence, prompting some to think that Stuart Lancaster could indeed become the first side to win on Southern Hemisphere turf this season, but reality become slowly more evident when the Boks turned on the power at the beginning of the second half, with Morne Steyn and new captain Jean De Villers both scoring tries that in the end proved the difference between the two sides. England themselves went in level after a strong first half showing and actually bossed South Africa at the breakdown in no uncertain terms thanks to the excellent Chris Robshaw, but what will worry them is the superior attacking verve that the Springboks showed at the beginning of the second half despite an England side which had been built to attack.

South Africa can expect to be quietly confident about improving their performance from last week on quite a few counts though. New coach Heyneke Meyer’s side had little time to prepare for the first test, with his many of his chances having faced each other in a bruising all SA Derby just the weekend before, while many of the team themselves were actually playing amongst eachother as a unit for the first time, featuring four new caps as well as a new lock combination. Their fitness – already an advantage with the game 1,300m above sea level – could come into play even earlier this time around, while their hot streak against England (winners of their last 8) and then at Ellis Park, where they hold a stunning record in general, ought to make them very strong favourites.

Stuart Lancaster’s major reshuffle of the backline is a statement of intent but it does being its own questions. Bringing in London Irish’s Jonathan Joseph – described as the new Jeremy Guscott by Mike Catt – may be viable but it’s also a big risk dropping Owen Farell and his defensive capabilities (along with his monster kicks at this level) towards the bench when he could easily have filled the hole left back by Brad Barritt today), although the move of Ben Foden to fullback should allow them to at least go head to head with the monster South African back 5 of Patrick Lambie (finally picked to start ahead of Zane Kirchener), JP Pietersen, Jean De Villers, Frans Steyn, and Morne Steyn, who are equally effective at either running the ball from deep or kicking for territory.

With all those factors in mind, it’s hard to be secure about a handicap bet. South Africa should come on for last week’s outing, but both Ireland and Wales came back from losses last week to put in storming performances which should arguably have seen them win their games this week and in that respect the 10 point start for England might look big even at altitude. In the end, the best bet might be to back the hosts to score 28 or more points. In their last two games at altitude against England at sea level they’ve scored 55 and 58 points; I don’t expect such a winning margin but that mark is well within reach when you take into account the fact that Morne Steyn missed 7 points in shots at goal last week.

Advice

2 pts South Africa to score 28 or more points (4/5 Bet365, Skybet)  

Australia v Wales - 2nd Test Preview

Australia and Wales’s first game was a truly epic meeting and a reminder of how high the standard of International rugby is and also how closer the Northern and Southern Hemispheres truly are these days and the second test should be just as tight as the first if anything’s to go by.

Wales, seen by many as the strongest hope of a success down south from the northern hemisphere, were probably a little disappointed with their own performance against the Wallabies, looking notably rusty in the first half of the game when the Wallabies – who had probably come on for the run in a big way after going down 9-6 to Scotland in very unfortunate circumstances – proved to be far too quick and mobile going forward, leading to a 10 point deficit after just 16 minutes, something which they never really recovered from despite whittling the gap down to just a point with 17 minutes to go. That very penalty itself came from an attack which was leading to a certain try but for Rhys Priestland’s coughup, and its moments lie that which are sure to give the Welsh some major hope for this test.

No credit can be taken away from the Wallabies though, with Adam Ashley-Cooper, Will Genia, David Pocock (left) and Scott Higginbotham all having excellent games, underlined by Genia moving to the world class level that saw Australia win the Tri – Nations just after a year ago, creating two tries and scoring himself in exceptional style, while Pocock’s efforts at Flanker were well worthy of the praise that many had been putting on him before the World Cup. The intensity of their forwards was also something that had been a pleasant surprise, with the platform that Genia thrived on creatively also put well forward by Higginbotham and Pocock. Robbie Dean’s men could well have faltered against the late Welsh comeback in the last 20 minutes, but Pat McCabe’s try was no more than they deserved and they’ll be very hard to stop given a similar performance.

Another key factor will also be the improvement that the Welsh can take into this game. A convincing warm up win over the Brumbies in midweek should give the squad some renewed confidence while the return of coach Warren Gatland from injury (he had been absent and stuck in New Zealand thanks to an injury) could improve the mentality of the squad, and if avoiding the major handling errors (23 lost possessions and turnovers conceded) that  turned so many promising attacks into Australian chances that blighted them in the first test, they should feel confident about  their chances of drawing the series level. It’s also interesting to note that only 2 of the starting XV had played a game since the 5^th of May (Warbuton himself went into battle against Pocock having not played since the 6 Nations), and with this Wales’s side always stronger than most upon the point of fitness, the extra week should be crucial. That can see them push Australia closer than ever, but the home side get the call to take the series to 2-0.

Advice

2 pts Australia to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Stan James)

1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (5/1 Betfred)

New Zealand v Ireland - 2nd Test

It’s been 25 test meetings since Ireland eat New Zealand and that stat doesn’t look like it’s about to change when the best of three test series moves to Christchurch this morning (with the venue hosting its first test in 2 years after the earthquake that ravaged it so badly), with Ireland as big as 14/1 to level the series, and New Zealand as short as 1/50. The World Cup winners give up 24 points on the handicap with some firms and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see that marker stretched in face of support for the hosts.

With only half an hour to go until kickoff, things have to be kept short and sweet but the best bets this week might be on middle distance winning margins of 21 – 30 and 25-36. Ireland were below away with ease at Eden Park but they didn’t want for lack of creative opportunities in the first half, moving the ball out wide with good pace at times, and will be bolstered by the return of some figures.  Gordon D’Aarcy , famed for having an excellent understanding with Brian O’Driscoll not only offensively but also coming back on himself, while Andrew Trimble also provides a sharp finisher in the case that they should get any opportunities.  Mike Ross and Kevin McLaughin might also add some extra strength into the engine room, while hopefully the freshness that’s brought in from not only those new faced, but a rest of a week – Leinster particularly had an excruciating season – could move the two sides a little closer, so also consider the 26-30 point winning margin at 6/1 with Blue Sq.

Beating Steve Hansen’s side should be out of the question for the men in green, but with the above factors listed and the weather, there’s reason to think they might take a couple of points off the board and that makes a dutch of the two correct winning margins quite tempting – it would have landed in last week’s game – while New Zealand to score 36 points or more should also be considered strongly with Ladbrokes. The All Blacks were playing their first competitive game since winning the World Cup Final in October last week, so in the event that they might actually improve upon their performance. It’s been a cold, wet day in Cristchurch so far but conditions are set for running rugby and both Richie McCaw and Steve Hansen have said that lifting their foot off the pedal is no option for them. "If you think you've got it sorted, you'll come unstuck, so there's quite a few areas where we need to be better," he (McCaw) was quoted as saying before the match on Friday, while an unchanged side apart from one forced absence in Victor Vito is an obvious sign of the head coach’s contentedness with life at the moment in the camp.

Advice

1 pt New Zealand to win by 25-36 points (2/1 Betfred)

1 pt New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (9/4 Betfred)

1 pt New Zealand to win by 26-30 points (6/1 Blue Sq) 

Euro 2012 - Greece v Russia

Russia can seal their place in the quarter finals of Euro 2012 by beating Greece in their final Group A game on Saturday, and sending Franco Santo’s men out of the tournament at the same time. Seen as the dark horses for some beforehand, the 2008 semi-finalists were sensational in the opening game against the Czech Republic and were cut into 14-1 to win the tournament from 20-1 beforehand after running out comfortable 4-1 winners against a side that themselves went onto beat Greece in their next game, a game which they could well have won by more if not for the wasteful finishing of Alkesander Kerzakhov, who missed a European championship record seven shots off target, with three of them being strong chances which one would have assumed at the time he’d score. They probably weren't as good against Poland, but had looked good before taking the lead and always had a dangerous edge going forward with Arshavin and Aleksandr Kerzhakov linking up dangerously, while Dazagoev and Zhirkov looked to be even more dangerous going forward down their flank.

Against a Greece side that has been horribly exposed down the flanks in both games so far – Luckas Biscesk got multiple crossing opportunities in the opener, most notably for the Lewandowski goal, while the Cezch Republic’s second goal was a travesty in not only defending against the ball in, while both Manitats and Papadopoulos were also sloppy for the goal – one would have to think they pose a massive threat down whichever side they choose with the axis of Anykov, Shirokov and Dzagoev or Zhirkov, Zyrnavov and Arshavin all capable of getting inbehind and offering quality service.

Greece were good when going a goals and a man down against Poland, fighting their way back into a game which they well could have been at least three down in before half time and turning an abject performance into one which would have seen them win the game had they not missed a second half penalty, but once again a slow start cost them badly against the Cezch Republic with Kadlec and Pilar wreaking early havoc and a similarly loose start against a side with the quality that Russia possess could well end their game. It was interesting to note that the Greeks weren’t allowed into the game after the poor early start against the Czechs (barring the unlucky given offside goal and Cech’s horrendous blunder), and it’s very hard to imagine Russia being anyhwwere near as generous, or even lenient with the attacking power that they possess. Any amount of bets appeal, but the 5/6 on Dick Advoccat’s side proving too good for Greece looks to be very fair based on current evidence and should be eagerly snapped up.  Those who want a bit of stats based interest should also consider the time of the first goal being before 31 minuites. In Greece’s last eight games they’ve let in a goal before that time, including a 1-1 draw against Russia in a friendly.

Advice

3 pts Russia (5/6 Coral)

Euro 2012 - Poland v Czechoslovakia

They say that tournaments are always better when the host nation does well andPoland can continue the fun by sealing a much deserved place in the quarter finals of Euro 2012 by beating the Czech Republic today. For Poland, the permutations are simple. Win and they go through, and if they fail to win then they’re out; While a draw takes the Cezechs through assuming that Russia don’t go behind to Greece.

It’s essentially a knockout encounter, but at the prices Francesk Smuda’s men make much more appeal than the visitors and a price of 5/4 looks well worth taking about them gaining what could be called an overdue victory. They were held to a 1-1 draw by Greece in their opening game when a lack of focus in the second half saw them drop two points but they should have been well clear by half time with both Blaszczykowski and Piszczek having good chances that were wasted before their opener while Perquis should also have scored, all in the first half. Their response to a Greek comeback probably wasn’t what it should have been but there’s no guessing that they had enough chances to win despite being “paralysed by pressure” according to their manager.

Their second game against Russia was expected to be much harder and so it proved, but after Dzagoev’s header Poland had created several good chances and Jacob Blascszkowski’s screamer and were the much more threatening side before the end in the 1-1 draw, with the second half seeing many Polish attacks seeing Robert Lewandkowski getting good chances. There’s a slight worry about them losing their focus for certain periods of the game, but with a little more luck they’re well capable of beating the Czechs.

Michael Bilek’s side looked good against Greece after going 2-0 up inside 6 minutes but they were made to look good by Greece’s appalling defending early on and there’s a feeling that they had the game in the bag from that point and it wasn’t a true reflection of their quality (Greece had a goal wrongly ruled out for offside before half time which would have made things far more interesting) . The same could be said for their 4-1 defeat against Russia, with the Czechs having decent chances at 2-1 down before being opened up late on by the Russians. That said, they were clearly far inferior to Dick Advoccat’s side, far more so than Poland (who could arguably have won the game with sharper shooting) and they could be going out against the Co – Hosts.

Advice

2 pts Poland (13/10 Paddy Power) 

Euro 2012 - Sweden v England

The usage of the common footballing phrase “England Expects” can often be wrong but bookmakers genuinely do think Roy Hodgson’s England can knock Sweden out of the tournament with a win in their primetime Friday night encounter. Roy Hodgson’s side were infact cut for the whole tournament with some bookmakers after their 1-1 draw with France, with all the firms taking them down to 12-1 from 15-1 (Betfred) and 14/1 respectively. That might have been an overreaction based upon a slow and steady start to the tournament although it was a lot better than Sweden results wise, with Erik Hamen’s side failing to make the best of what had been a promising start when being turned around by the co-hosts late on by an Andriy Shevchenko double and then fluffing several good late chances to salvage at least a draw.

Sweden's (blue) defence could easily be breached by England,
who are noted dead ball specialists 

The Three Lions have been put in as very strong favourites for the game, with no better than odds against being offered across the board, but that looks very short and seems to be based on literal results and form at face value (England having drawn with France, and both being ranked far higher than Ukraine and Sweden). Sweden may have lost to Ukraine but it was clear that the hosts’s poor preparation hadn’t had the predicted effect many felt would take its toll on the team and Sweden themselves failed to make the early impact on the game that they’d have desired, with Ukraine having all the major chances and the opener coming against the run of play. That Ukraine turned it around so quickly wasn’t just testament to how well they’d been playing, but also how susceptible the centre back pairing of Olof Mellberg – totally exposed for the opener by Shevchenko – & Andreas Grangvist – generally unsure of himself the whole night- is to some genuine movement, and that threat is definitely carried by Ashley Young and Danny Wellbeck if England can move enough of the ball towards them.

With both sides giving up the larger amount of possession to their rival in the first round of games – England have been noted for their last 4 wins being 1-0, coming against the run of play – which side takes the imitative in going forward is likely to have a huge impact on the game, with both teams possession the players to cause significant damage. We haven’t yet seen the best of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain or even the likes of James Milner in an attacking midfield role, while the likes of Rasmuss Elm, Seb Larsson, and Kim Kallstrom were seen all too little until the Swedes made a late charge, but the situation should be different this time around with everything on the line for Hamren’s men, while Ibrahvimovic had a superb opening game in the No.10 slot. With their defence as leaky as it was against Ukraine they don’t make as much appeal as they should in the match odds (11/4 in relation to England is far too big) but they can push them hard and a 1-1 draw isn’t out of the question. It would disappoint both teams but it makes sense with the Swedes having scored in all 11 competitive matches under Erik Hamren's management, while they’ve let in goals in their last 4 games; England haven’t failed to score in their last 6. For another value seeking bet, try the 1-0 England with it being kept in mind that Hodgson’s side have won five out of their last 8 that way.

Advice

1 pt 1-1 Draw (13/2 Ladbrokes)

1 pt 1-0 England (13/2 Ladrbokes)

Euro 2012 - Ukraine v France

France are on their second longest winless streak in a major tournament but they’ve got to change that if they’re to justify the support that so many – this page included – have given them for Euro 2012 against co- hosts Ukraine today, in a game that’s likely to provide plenty of fun and entertainment for the neutrals.

Co – Hosts Ukraine can seal their place in the quarter finals with a win over the French and spirits will be incredibly high for Oleg Bolkhin’s side after their 2-1 win over Sweden on Monday night with Andriy Shevcehnko providing both goals in a fairytale comeback from 1-0 down. All credit must be given towards the co – hosts for fighting back when at times it had looked as if they were going to concede a second and third, but it’s likely that things will be harder for them here against Group favourites and tournament tips France, who themselves should be encouraged, if not satisfied with their 1-1 opening draw with England. The end result was probably just about a fair one between the two sides although France had 21 shots on target to England’s 5 and controlled 65% of the ball throughought the match, while passing the ball more than twice the number of times of their opponents – 634 to 307. Despite this, they lacked any real threat apart from the 5 minute period during which they responded to England’s opener, although there’s good reason to think that they may be a different animal this time round.

Blanc opted for a 4-3-3 formation on Monday but it played well into England’s hands with Karim Benzema taken out of the game by the heavy man marking tactics of Lescott and Terry, often leaving the excellent Nasri (seen scoring) and Ribery with nothing to target in face of their marauding runs from deep, while the roaming Lille left back Matieu Debuchy seems to be denied of a proper target man for his excellent crosses in the system.  There was also the issue of the stifling temperatures that the second half was played in – temperatures were topping 37 degrees at one point – and the long length of the grass at the Donbass Arena was one of the more specific reasons given for the lack of threat in the second half, but there was an acceptance of a point from Blanc and his men on Monday (possibly evidenced by the time it took for him to bring on Hatem Ben Arfa) and I’d be very surprised to see them in that mindset today. For one, the return of highly rated Midfilder Yann M’Villa from an ankle strain is likely to concede with the return to a 4-2-3-1 formation, which should see Karim Benzemema played more as a target man with Ribery and Nasri providing danger with Debuchy and Evra overlapping. We all know that France are good enough to work their own opening but one would have to be more hopeful about them getting spaces in behind to run into given how forceful Ukraine’s back four were in their opening game to get the ball forward, and with a chance to go straight through to the quarter finals, they’re sure to go forward again in search of a win just like Poland did in their second game against Russia.

And with Philippe Mexès and Adil Rami being given a lot of problems against England by the movement of Young and Wellbeck whenever they had the ball, it would be foolish to think that the hosts – who are surely going to be proactive from the get go – couldn’t use the movement of Andriy Yarmolenko and Andriy Voronin to create some serious problems, especially with the aforementioned two noted for struggling aerially. Add to that the weaknesses of French fullbacks Patrice Evra (himself at fault for the goal against England) and Matieu Debuchy going back upon themselves, and you have a recipe for blotted scoresheets on both sides. We’ve got more than enough in the France basket to leave 11/10 alone (it’s too short a price anyway) but France to win with Ukraine scoring is 7/2 with Coral, and that looks to be a good source of value, while the France 2-1 win is a mouthwatering 9/1 with Stan James.

Advice

1 pt Both teams to score and France to win (7/2 Coral)

1 pt 2-1 France (9/1 general)

Euro 2012 - Ireland v Spain

Is the dream over for Ireland after just one game of Euro 2012? Needing results against both Spain and Italy to extend their involvements would suggest that their time in the tournament could well be coming to an end, and the World Champions are widely expected to make their game against Italy a total non-event through victory tonight.

 With no team having ever won three major tournaments in succession and none having ever successfully defended the European Championship title, a few had expressed some doubts over Spain’s challenge before the finals started and those naysayers may only feel vindicated by the 1-1 draw they had against Italy, although much more can be taken from that than just face value. As per usual they controlled the vast amount of possession (65%), but would have been happy with a point against what is on paper their toughest challenge in the group and they could easily have won the game but for three missed chances by Fernando Torres late on. His impact, even if not enough for a goal, had several questioning Vicente Del Bosque’s tactics, which saw him play 5 creative midfielders with Cesc Fabregas (seen here scoring the equalizer) operating the false No.9 spot that he had done so successfully for Barcelona when employed there earlier during the season. Fabregas’s equalizer vindicates the good game he had but there was no question that Spain’s threat was considerably higher with Torres on the pitch and it was fascinating to discover that Del Bosque is thinking of repeating his tactics, being quoted as saying "Against Ireland we will play a number nine - though it depends what you understand by a number nine.” David Silva is a forward; Andres Iniesta plays like one, so does Cesc."

Whether he puts in strikers or not, Spain shouldn’t have too much trouble breaking down the Irish and it’s simply a matter of how many in my mind with Ireland, even if able to frustrate them, lacking enough to really threaten Spain’s backline. Before the Italy game, it’s worth mentioning that Ireland had gone unbeaten in 14 games, with ten of those seeing Ireland keeping a clean sheet, but their rear-guard at this level faces a much stiffer task – as evidenced by their defending against Croatia – and they may lack the penetration to really trouble the world champions. A win to nil for the favourites is 5/6 in places while 188BET will give you 9/10 about that eventuality, & with Spain having let in just 6 qualifying goals while not conceding for the majority of their latter world cup games, it’s a price that makes obvious appeal. Another shot that makes appeal is the second half to be the highest scoring at 6/5 with Coral. Three of Spain's six victories at the World Cup came after a level first half, along with three of their warm up games, and if Ireland don’t concede early, you can imagine them being much more comfortable than against Croatia in sticking to a rigid defensive formation before being probed open by what’s likely to be a patient approach from Spain. With this in mind, the 2-0 correct score also appeals.

Advice

2 pts Spain to win to nil (9/10 188BET)

2 pts More goals in 2^nd half (6/5 Coral)

1 pt 2-0 Spain (5/1 general)