Despite the 5 point defeat, there was genuine hope for many
of England’s fans from the first test against South Africa and the positive impression
that was created at times by many is likely to be challenged strongly when they
move upto Johannesburg, and altitude, today in the second test.
South Africa’s new look side were given a few scary moments
in the first 40 with England pushing the ball hard into contact and holding
strong in defence, prompting some to think that Stuart Lancaster could indeed
become the first side to win on Southern Hemisphere turf this season, but
reality become slowly more evident when the Boks turned on the power at the
beginning of the second half, with Morne Steyn and new captain Jean De Villers
both scoring tries that in the end proved the difference between the two sides.
England themselves went in level after a strong first half showing and actually
bossed South Africa at the breakdown in no uncertain terms thanks to the
excellent Chris Robshaw, but what will worry them is the superior attacking
verve that the Springboks showed at the beginning of the second half despite an
England side which had been built to attack.
South Africa can expect to be quietly confident about
improving their performance from last week on quite a few counts though. New
coach Heyneke Meyer’s side had little time to prepare for the first test, with
his many of his chances having faced each other in a bruising all SA Derby just
the weekend before, while many of the team themselves were actually playing
amongst eachother as a unit for the first time, featuring four new caps as well
as a new lock combination. Their fitness – already an advantage with the game 1,300m
above sea level – could come into play even earlier this time around, while
their hot streak against England (winners of their last 8) and then at Ellis
Park, where they hold a stunning record in general, ought to make them very strong
favourites.
Stuart Lancaster’s major reshuffle of the backline is a
statement of intent but it does being its own questions. Bringing in London
Irish’s Jonathan Joseph – described as the new Jeremy Guscott by Mike Catt –
may be viable but it’s also a big risk dropping Owen Farell and his defensive capabilities
(along with his monster kicks at this level) towards the bench when he could
easily have filled the hole left back by Brad Barritt today), although the move
of Ben Foden to fullback should allow them to at least go head to head with the
monster South African back 5 of Patrick Lambie (finally picked to start ahead
of Zane Kirchener), JP Pietersen, Jean De Villers, Frans Steyn, and Morne
Steyn, who are equally effective at either running the ball from deep or
kicking for territory.
With all those factors in mind, it’s hard to be secure about
a handicap bet. South Africa should come on for last week’s outing, but both Ireland
and Wales came back from losses last week to put in storming performances which
should arguably have seen them win their games this week and in that respect
the 10 point start for England might look big even at altitude. In the end, the
best bet might be to back the hosts to score 28 or more points. In their last
two games at altitude against England at sea level they’ve scored 55 and 58
points; I don’t expect such a winning margin but that mark is well within reach
when you take into account the fact that Morne Steyn missed 7 points in shots
at goal last week.
Advice
2 pts South Africa to score 28 or more points (4/5 Bet365,
Skybet)
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