It’s a new competition but the same old story – New Zealand
winning. Two weeks into the Rugby Championship and with two bonus point wins,
New Zealand sit atop the table alone and will be confident of extending that
lead in style when they play Championship newcomers Argentina at Eden Park
today.
Winners of their last 12 matches, by an average score of 47-10,
(under Steve Hansen it's 35-10), the All Blacks have been dominant in a style
befitting their status as world champions, and they could easily have scored
double the 22 points they put on the board against the Wallabies due to missing
several try-scoring opportunities due to poor handling and poor choice in the latter
stages of their phaseplay.
Therefore it’s no surprise to see a large margin of victory
being anticipated against Argentina, with the Pumas being offered mid-twenties handicaps,
the highest of which looks to be worth supporting. A +27 handicap looks to be
great value when you see that of the 5 games New Zealand have won by 31 points
or more, 4 are Canada, Japan, Tonga, and an Ireland side at the end of a long,
exhausting season. The Pumas don’t score enough points to make a real impact
but they’re as hard as any side in the game to breakdown and covered the spread
when losing 33-10 in the Quarter finals of the World Cup, where they presented
a real threat until Kieran Read scored with 13 minutes left.
There have also been several personnel changes made between
this side and the one that thrashed Australia, with Dan Carter – scorer of 17
points last week - missing thanks to injury and Sonny Bill Williams going back
to NRL. Carter has a decent replacement in Aaaron Cruden, who stepped in for
him at the World Cup before injury intervened, while Conrad Smith is at least a
decent replacement for Sonny Bill even if not offering the same cutting edge.
With winds meant to come upto nearly 35mph and wet condtions forecasted, New
Zealand could struggle to put 29 points past Argentina.
Advice
2 pts Argentina +27 (10/11 Blue Sq)
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