We all have our own different perceptions of what makes
value but when you see last season’s domestic double winners priced up at 12/5
to beat a side who they smashed 5-2 in the German Cup final and beat by eight points
behind them in the league, then you get the feeling that one side may be too
big, and Borussia Dortumund cannot be turned down at 12-5 tonight against
Bayern Munich.
Dortmund have won the last 5 meetings between the two yet
are still quite unfancied by the bookmakers, presumably upon the basis of reputation.
Bayern have gone on a spending spree in response to one of the most galling
ends towards a season in years, adding Tom Starke, Mitchell Wieser, Xherdan
Shaqiri, Claudio Pizarro, Mario Mandžukić, and Dante to a squad already filled
with quality. The main problem is that Dortmund aren’t lacking in stars either
and while they’ve lost Kagawa to Manchester United, Marco Reus is as good a
replacement as they could have asked for and no changes are needed for the reigning
champions, although their central midfield pairing of Sebastian Kehl and Sven
Bender will be missing and Gotze has to come in off the bench thanks to an eye
infection.
Bayern too are injury hit to some extent a wide number of
absentees including David Alaba (stress foot fracture), Rafinha (pulled ankle
ligaments), Diego Contento (hairline foot fracture). The game will also come
too soon for Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mario Gomez, which leaves them looking
a little vulnerable going back on themselves, and they’re opposable on balance,
and certainly at the prices – strongly consider the 4/6 offered by Paddy Power
that Dortmund don’t lose in 90 minutes.
Advice
1 pt Borussia Dortmund (12/5 general)
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