They say that all good things must come to an end and
England’s status as the best Test team in the world, if not their actual
ranking, seems to be on the ropes after two sub-continent defeats, which
accentuates their horrible record which has seen them win no series test since
Sri Lanka in 2001, Bangladesh excluded.
Once again the focus has been on embarrassing batting
collapses, as the bowlers have toiled and performed admirably on pitches that
were expected to be roads for top batsmen – no batsman has made a century on
this tour from either team and the biggest total for the “hosts” has been 338 –
only to be let down by a fairly brittle performing top order. Andrew Strauss
(17), Eoin Morgan (10.25), Kevin Pietersen (4.25) & surprisingly Ian Bell
(9) have let the side down twice while Eoin Morgan too has struggled badly in
his two tests.
Even more galling than their heavy first test defeat must be
the fact that after outplaying Pakistan for a good three and half days, a
cautious and nervous approach saw them slide to 52-5 and then 72 all out when
chasing just 145 for the win in Abu Dhabi, where a snail paced start (Andrew
Strauss and Alastair Cook added 21 runs for the first wicket in almost 15 overs)
saw them trapped at the crease.
Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook are about to open England's
innings together for the 100th time but they have failed to reach double
figures in seven of their last 11 innings and look well worth taking on for the
opening partnership match bet with Ladbrokes, who will offer 5/6 that either
Pakistan get the highest opening partnership (it’s happened on every occasion
so far) or that they can’t make it to 33, which has also happened four times
this innings. The latter gets the vote with Mohammed Hafeez so deadly with the
new ball.
Credit must be given to their conquerors Pakistan though. Disgraced
on the reverse tour, where the transgressions of three of their most talented
players saw one of the biggest corruption scandals to rock sport in years, they’ve
made steady progress into a side that now resembles one of the most promising
in the game based on their exploits so far this series.
Under the steady hand of captain Misbah - Ul - Haq, Pakistan have not lost a Test series
since he took over as captain in October 2010 and could well be passing India
and Sri Lanka in the rankings at the cutoff point, which is testament to the
progress that both he and Moshin Khan have made.
Just having won the series over the No.1 side will have
proven a huge fillip and they are reportedly desperate for a 3-0, so the 7/4
floating around for them to take this test is sure to tempt many and it’s hard
to see many being put off, with the spinners – who have 34 wickets out of the
40 that England have lost in this series – able to cover for some poor battling
efforts.
It’s to the bastmen where we look again, with the steady
Captain Misbah – Ul – Haq picked to score big again. The second highest scoring
batsman in the series, who has 13 50’s in 23 innings and has scored 52 & 84
in his first innings this series, he can get the better of Azhar Ali, who has
made 1, 24 & 68 during the tests. Given the poor form of Ian Bell – Saeed Ajamal’s
doosra has taken him three times this series, albeit the fact they were beautiful
deliveries - there can’t be too much harm in taking him to give three runs and
a beating to the struggling middle order batsman.
As far as the bowlers are concerned, the wickets are likely
to lie with the likes of Monty Panesar, Graeme Swann, Saeed Ajmal, and Abdur
Rheman. Our top wicket taker bets on Swann and Ajamal are as in as good as position
as we can hope to be, although the danger of England’s seamers and any Pakistan
spinner are ever present. There’s not much value in either of them for this
test here, so it’s best to let the outrights run.
Advice
4 pts Misbah – Ul – Haq to outscore Azhar Ali (5/6 Hills)
2 pts Misbah – Ul – Haq -2.5 v Ian Bell (5/6 Ladbrokes)
1.5 pts England Opening Partnership to make less than 33
runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)
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