The Heineken Cup only started last week but already Toulouse
have shown their battling qualities and they look worth backing to make it a
magnificent 5 in this competition at 11/2 with Stan James.
They have reached two of the last four finals and are a team
with a rich European history (as said above, they are aiming to make it 5 wins
in this tournament). New recruits Luke McAllister and Luke Burgess add depth to
a squad with many international stars, while the inspirational Thierry
Dusautoir was able to unite the French national side at the World Cup and push
New Zealand all the way in the World Cup Final.
They had a scary moment when nearly going down to Gloucester
on home soil but their experience shined through with a late Clement Poitrenaud
try brining victory from the jaws of defeat. That resolution, along with a
strong home record, should see them go a long way.
Last year’s winners Leinster are the main threat and may
well be worth backing as cover given that in their last two winning runs, both
won home semi finals against each – other, with Leinster beating Toulouse last
season. However with three French and two English wins in their recent semi –
final appearances, there seem to be few more solid options.
It’s impossible to forget Leinster’s final win last season –
it was after all the greatest comeback in Heineken Cup final history at
Cardiff's Millennium Stadium – and it should be remembered how they can simply
decide to blitz any team that they want. Case in point: their devastating blitz
of 27 unanswered points inside 26 minutes at the Millenium Stadium in April –
They’ll surely go close, and Jonathan Sexton is the man to help them do so.
Of the others, Leicester have improved since the return of
their World Cup stars but a fairly poor record (two pool stage exits in recent
times, coupled with a poor start to the Premiership that reads Played 8, W2,
L5, D1, is a worry for those who want to back them outright.
Saracens have recruited well by bringing in John Smit,
Charlie Hodgson and Joe Maddock in the close season. They folded in a tough
pool last season however and might crumble when the heat gets turned on
properly.
Advice
4 pts Toulouse (11/2 Paddy Power)
7 pts win Toulouse to go furthest from Top 14 (4/6 Paddy
Power)
2 pts Jonathan Sexton Top Scorer (13/2 Paddy Power)
Pool One
Munster’s aberrational showing last season, when falling at
the first hurdle for the at the first hurdle for the first time in 12 seasons ,
can be forgotten but a decent away record couple with a never say die spirit
that saw then edge out Northampton 23-21 on Matchday one, should see them go
well (while their solid away record is a huge positive). While they don’t carry
much appeal outright, they can be backed at 6/5 to win their pool and that looks
worth taking with the return fixture of their main rivals on rankings being in January.
Northampton’s Chris Ashton should still take a massive hand
in proceedings though. His tryscoring record is bordering on the ridiculous –
He scored 6 tries at the World Cup despite blanking against France in the Quarter
finals – and the 7/4 about him top scoring in the Pool 1 and then the
tournament (13/2) is taken, as wherever Northampton goes, so should he.
Castres (currently riding high in the French Top 14, being
bettered only by Toulouse and Clermont right now) have landed themselves an
unlucky group, and the same can be said of Scarlets, who might be worth backing
on the handicap this season at home - with
an opening-round victory over Perpignan last season they’re not to be totally underestimated.
Advice
4.5 pts Munster (6/5 general), 1 pt Chris Ashton Top
Tryscorer (7/4 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Chris Ashton Top Tournament
Tryscorer (13/2 Paddy Power)
Pool 2
Racing Metro don’t make the appeal despite a first season
experience which should leave them all the better for it, but their squad isn’t
as strong as it could be thanks to the many injuries that they’ve suffered and
Cardiff, fully deserving of their win, could take a good deal of catching here,
especially if London Irish continue with their inconsistency.
Advice: 2 pts Cardiff (5/6 Boylesports)
Pool 3
Leinster should, and will, walk this pool. I suspect that
Montpellier have the most class out of the challengers – having 6 Argentinans
and the classy Fracois Trinh Duc to help matters along has something to do with
that – and they could be a team to follow at home with generous starts. The
only problem is the small nagging matter of them lying as low as 13th
in the Top 14. Bath don’t seem to have the strength in depth for a major challenge while Glasgow’s threat
seems to be with the Scotland team that messed up a good opportunity to go very
far in the World Cup – Although they should be good at home, as shown when
beating Bath last week 26-21.
Pool 4
Leicester’s poor away record – having have won only four
times on the road in their last 16 Heineken Cup matches – tempers enthusiasm
for their price of evens to win the group. An Aurlien Rougerie led Clermont are
fascinating prospects to go all the way, never mind the group, and they’re
worth a small play at 6/4. Ulster are also interesting based on a strong home
record and plenty of talent but their league form sees them needing a step up
to land this group.
Advice: 1 pt Clermont (6/4 general)
Pool 5
Saracens have the strongest credentials here but they’re
very short right now at 6/5 and they folded last season – all they had was a
win over Racing Metro. The general inconsistency of Biarritz, despite their
class, leaves Ospreys as the choice for top spot. If they can click once or
twice away from home then they’ve got a much bigger chance than odds of 11-5
imply.
Advice: 1 pt Ospreys (11/5 Paddy Power)
Pool 6
It really should be too easy for Toulouse. Gloucester made
them work for it on Sunday but they carried themselves through with their class
and should prove insanely hard to beat at home or away. 8/15 about them topping
the pool merits serious consideration, but 9/1 about Vincent Clerc topping the
try scoring for this group was too big to miss for obvious reasons.
Advice: 1 pt Vincent Clerc top tryscorer (9/1 Paddy Power),
1 pt each/way Vincent Clerc top
tournament Tryscorer (16/1 Paddy Power)
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