Australia v New Zealand Preview - 1st Test

Michael Clarke (below, left) is tired of being asked if this is the beginning of a new era for Australian Cricket but a series victory in Sri Lanka and a 1-1 draw in South Africa are more than enough evidence to suggest that they can beat New Zealand on home soil despite their side being much changed from those games.

 

After their shambolic collapses against England action was demanded, including several changes to the side and new young talent to be promoted. Given the sheer dominance of the visitors (and now No.1 ranked test side) with both bat and ball that may have been an overreaction but far more promise has been shown by them since.

Nathan Lyon isn’t the answer to replacing Shane Warne (it might be an impossible task) but his impressive debut (dismissing Kumar Sangakkara off his first delivery, and taking 5 for 34 in Sri Lanka's first innings) along with a good showing in South Africa and if he was to make the team it would be a huge boost.

With David Warner, James Pattinson and Ben Cutting/Mitchell Stark all likely for their test debut, this should rank as New Zealand’s best chance of a victory on Wallaby soil in years, but before they get the call it should be remembered that New Zealand aren’t going great guns.

Ross Taylor’s side have won only 4 of their last 28 tests and came close to being beaten by Zimbabwe, with only Bangladesh below them in the Test rankings. Aptly named wicketkeeper Recce Young is still new on the test scene while this is only the second ever test for  fast bowler Doug Bracewell and the batsman Dean Brownlie.

The strength of Australia has fallen of late but their bowling average (32.88) is second only to that of England on the list, and their fortress of the Gabba has seen them go unbeaten since 1988. Given that both teams are largely using the same mix of experience, the vote has to be with the home side at odds against quotes.

Advice

2 pts Australia (20/21 Blue Sq)

Heineken Cup - 19th November 2011

Biarritz (4/6) v Saracens (6/4)

Biarritz can ill afford defeat here but having been beaten by the Ospreys in Swansea on the opening weekend but Saracen are an in form team who should be able to give them a serious challenge in Saracens, who may deepen their woes.

Advice: 1 pt Saracens to win by 1-12 points (14/5 Hills)

Treviso (4) v Ospreys (1/3)

Despite Treviso’s feisty attitude and good home record, there’s no appeal in them here given that Ospreys came here with a weaker team and won in September. A handicap of 9 points looks big for them, but they can get on the scoresheet in no uncertain terms.

Advice: 2 pts Ospreys to score 26 or more points (5/6 general)

Castres (6/5) v Munster (evs)

One of the matchups of the weekend. It’s impossible for bookmakers to split the two but Munster only just get the vote to stop the hosts’s excellent run of form. Castres could easily win but they gave away 14 penalties to Scarlets, and they cannot afford to the same against the Irish giants, who get a big vote of confidence here despite the toughness of the task.

Advice: 3 pts Munster to win by 1-12 points (2/1 Hills)

Gloucester (4/6) v Quins (13/8)

Gloucester came within seven minutes and a possibly forward try of inflicting a first home defeat on Toulouse for 2 years and will be fancied confidently by many to go and turn that into a win against Harlequins. However, the visitors are on a winning streak of 11 which makes their odds far too big.

Advice: 2 pts Quinz to win by 1-12 points (11/4 Ladbrokes)

Connaught (5) v Toulouse (2/9)

Toulouse were made to work all the way for their opening win against Gloucester and they face a tough trip to Connacht, who bring Heineken Cup rugby to Galway for the first time. Toulouse might be finding their way into the thick of things this season and could be made to work very hard for things today.

Advice: 2 pts Toulouse to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Ladbrokes)

Leicester (1/5) v Ulster (6)

Leicester are struggling of late and they might well have expected more in their opening win against Aironi. Ulster will be buzzing following on from their win against Clermont and are too big at 6’s here despite a horrid away record.

Advice: 3 pts Ulster +12 (10/11 Paddy Power), 1 pt Ulster (6/1 Sportingbet)

Heineken Cup - 18th November 2011

Cardiff (4/11) v London Irish (7/2)

Cardiff seem to be riding the crest of a wave and they impressed when produced one of the stand-out results of the opening weekend with a commanding 26-20 win over Racing Metro in Paris and they look worth backing to win again infront of their home crowd. If London Irish can get things together then they can keep things close and it’s worth backing them to win by 1-12 points.

Advice: 1 pt Cardiff to win by 1-12 points (17/10 Paddy Power)

Clermont (1/100) v Aironi (28)

Clermont looked unlucky to be dragged back by a late Ulster try late on and they should have an easy game against Aironi, who have never won on the road in the Heineken Cup. They seem to have a respectable record in this competition but the contrast between their home and away form is shown by their two games against Biarritz last season. They won in Italy but got handed a 31 point beating in the return fixture.

Advice: 2 pts Clermont -12 on half time handicap (5/6 Paddy Power)

Edinbrugh (4/5) v Racing Metro (6/4)

With home advantage behind them Edinbrugh will see this as a top chance to build on their shock opening-round win away to London Irish although they might have played against a side who weren’t in top form. Those looking to back a home win should go for the 1-12 option, but the value might lie the with visitors.

Advice: 1 pt Racing Metro (11/5 Ladbrokes)

Northampton (1/7) v Scarlets (15/2)

Northampton got floored by one of the most dramatic comebacks of the recent rounds of the Heineken Cup when a 40 phase injury time Ronan O’Gara drop goal floored them. Scarlets were impressive in their own way when winning at Castres but all the appeal lies with the hosts, with the first half handicap appealing as the bet.

Advice: 1 pt Northampton -6 on first half handicap (5/6 general)  

Heineken Cup 2011-12 preview

The Heineken Cup only started last week but already Toulouse have shown their battling qualities and they look worth backing to make it a magnificent 5 in this competition at 11/2 with Stan James.

They have reached two of the last four finals and are a team with a rich European history (as said above, they are aiming to make it 5 wins in this tournament). New recruits Luke McAllister and Luke Burgess add depth to a squad with many international stars, while the inspirational Thierry Dusautoir was able to unite the French national side at the World Cup and push New Zealand all the way in the World Cup Final.

They had a scary moment when nearly going down to Gloucester on home soil but their experience shined through with a late Clement Poitrenaud try brining victory from the jaws of defeat. That resolution, along with a strong home record, should see them go a long way.

Last year’s winners Leinster are the main threat and may well be worth backing as cover given that in their last two winning runs, both won home semi finals against each – other, with Leinster beating Toulouse last season. However with three French and two English wins in their recent semi – final appearances, there seem to be few more solid options.

It’s impossible to forget Leinster’s final win last season – it was after all the greatest comeback in Heineken Cup final history at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium – and it should be remembered how they can simply decide to blitz any team that they want. Case in point: their devastating blitz of 27 unanswered points inside 26 minutes at the Millenium Stadium in April – They’ll surely go close, and Jonathan Sexton is the man to help them do so.

Of the others, Leicester have improved since the return of their World Cup stars but a fairly poor record (two pool stage exits in recent times, coupled with a poor start to the Premiership that reads Played 8, W2, L5, D1, is a worry for those who want to back them outright.

Saracens have recruited well by bringing in John Smit, Charlie Hodgson and Joe Maddock in the close season. They folded in a tough pool last season however and might crumble when the heat gets turned on properly.

Advice

4 pts Toulouse (11/2 Paddy Power)

7 pts win Toulouse to go furthest from Top 14 (4/6 Paddy Power)

2 pts Jonathan Sexton Top Scorer (13/2 Paddy Power)

Pool One

Munster’s aberrational showing last season, when falling at the first hurdle for the at the first hurdle for the first time in 12 seasons , can be forgotten but a decent away record couple with a never say die spirit that saw then edge out Northampton 23-21 on Matchday one, should see them go well (while their solid away record is a huge positive). While they don’t carry much appeal outright, they can be backed at 6/5 to win their pool and that looks worth taking with the return fixture of their main rivals on rankings being in January.

Northampton’s Chris Ashton should still take a massive hand in proceedings though. His tryscoring record is bordering on the ridiculous – He scored 6 tries at the World Cup despite blanking against France in the Quarter finals – and the 7/4 about him top scoring in the Pool 1 and then the tournament (13/2) is taken, as wherever Northampton goes, so should he.

Castres (currently riding high in the French Top 14, being bettered only by Toulouse and Clermont right now) have landed themselves an unlucky group, and the same can be said of Scarlets, who might be worth backing on the handicap this season at home -  with an opening-round victory over Perpignan last season they’re not to be totally underestimated.

Advice

4.5 pts Munster (6/5 general), 1 pt Chris Ashton Top Tryscorer (7/4 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Chris Ashton Top Tournament Tryscorer (13/2 Paddy Power)

Pool 2

Racing Metro don’t make the appeal despite a first season experience which should leave them all the better for it, but their squad isn’t as strong as it could be thanks to the many injuries that they’ve suffered and Cardiff, fully deserving of their win, could take a good deal of catching here, especially if London Irish continue with their inconsistency.  

Advice: 2 pts Cardiff (5/6 Boylesports)

Pool 3

Leinster should, and will, walk this pool. I suspect that Montpellier have the most class out of the challengers – having 6 Argentinans and the classy Fracois Trinh Duc to help matters along has something to do with that – and they could be a team to follow at home with generous starts. The only problem is the small nagging matter of them lying as low as 13^th in the Top 14. Bath don’t seem to have the strength in depth  for a major challenge while Glasgow’s threat seems to be with the Scotland team that messed up a good opportunity to go very far in the World Cup – Although they should be good at home, as shown when beating Bath last week 26-21.

Pool 4

Leicester’s poor away record – having have won only four times on the road in their last 16 Heineken Cup matches – tempers enthusiasm for their price of evens to win the group. An Aurlien Rougerie led Clermont are fascinating prospects to go all the way, never mind the group, and they’re worth a small play at 6/4. Ulster are also interesting based on a strong home record and plenty of talent but their league form sees them needing a step up to land this group.

Advice: 1 pt Clermont (6/4 general)

Pool 5

Saracens have the strongest credentials here but they’re very short right now at 6/5 and they folded last season – all they had was a win over Racing Metro. The general inconsistency of Biarritz, despite their class, leaves Ospreys as the choice for top spot. If they can click once or twice away from home then they’ve got a much bigger chance than odds of 11-5 imply.

Advice: 1 pt Ospreys (11/5 Paddy Power)

Pool 6

It really should be too easy for Toulouse. Gloucester made them work for it on Sunday but they carried themselves through with their class and should prove insanely hard to beat at home or away. 8/15 about them topping the pool merits serious consideration, but 9/1 about Vincent Clerc topping the try scoring for this group was too big to miss for obvious reasons.

Advice: 1 pt Vincent Clerc top tryscorer (9/1 Paddy Power), 1 pt  each/way Vincent Clerc top tournament Tryscorer (16/1 Paddy Power) 

South Africa v Australia - 2nd Test Preview

In a week where some are worried about the delay in Test Cricket’s world championships the focus has switched back to top class cricket. South Africa and Australia have always produced classic encounters between them but few recently are likely to be as good, or as dramatic, as the first test between these two.

After what seemed like a competitive effort from both sides with resulted in Australia making 284 in their first innings (let’s not forget that much of that was down to Michael Clarke’s classy century) we had one of the most bowling dominated days of Test Cricket in recent years, when 23 wickets fell for just 294 runs, a South African collapse (down from 49-2 to 96 all out) being “bettered” by a near record low of just 47 (and it could have been much worse when they were 21-9) for the Australians, who could never recover as South Africa held their nerve and won the test in what seemed like comfortable style.

It’s not hard to see a much improved performance in batting from both sides although one still feels that it will be decided by the bowlers at a venue which has seen 10 results in the last 10 tests here despite all of them being weather affected, which makes the draw less appealing given the quality that the two sides carry.

There’s rain forecast again but I’d rather take a chance on the result for either team, that team being South Africa. Of course Australia aren’t as bad as the scorecard in Cape Town suggests and they’ll fancy their chances to bounce back but South Africa’s impressive pace unit can match the likes of Johnson and debutant Pat Cummings, while Graeme Smith and co’s battling (if standing under pressure) can hold the charge of the Wallabies and go onto a series win.

Advice

2 pts South Africa (7/4 Sportingbet)

5 Things I Learned This Weekend - 15 November 2011

1)      Never bet, or tip on friendlies

The world champions at near full strength against the world’s No 10 side, who had made significant changes. Not only that, but they were a side that weren’t even meant to be in that position, with several faults and lack of possession against a team that contained the biggest and best midfield in world football. Easy money at 11/10 right? Wrong.

Vicente Del Bosque’s La Furoja Roja controlled up 70% of possession - with Spain touched the ball 348 times in England's half up to the interval while England had reached 75 by the same measure – but lack of real chances and missed Cesc Fabregas sitter led to a 1-0  win for the hosts, who had given hidden warnings of their poor performance in friendlies beforehand, and what had been a solid day for fans of the Vic Page was nearly totally ruined by the men in red. Lesson bloody learnt.

2)      England aren’t a truly hopeless case

Despite being very lucky to escape with a win (it should have been a draw at least) you couldn’t help but admire the effort put in by several promising talents on Saturday. Phul Jones showed why Manchester United had paid £18 million for him, while Jack Rodwell and Danny Wellbeck were willing to put in the hard yards and it showed. England still need to make a large leap up in class (they should have lost on Saturday) but a strong defensive attitude is half the battle to major tournament progress. After all, how many goals did Spain let in at the last World Cup?

3)      There’s nothing quite like 2 mile chasing

While Harry Derham rightly made the headlines for a cool and composed ride on Brampour to win the Greatwood, the race of the day took place at Navan, where the classy Big Zeb fought hard to see off Noble Prince giving away 4lbs and a run under a fine ride from Robbie Power. Colm Murphy’s stable star may be rising 1 but he’s just as good as ever and he could may hay throughout the season, with the Dial A Bet Chase looking to be at his mercy – He could be one of the bankers of the Christmas season. Not forgetting the impressive debuts made by Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross which leave us with godwilling, the prospect of a fantastic Arkle. Sure beats Need for Speed in any case.

4)      David Pipe is beginning to step out of his father’s shadow

After 4 winners at a hugely successful open meeting, it can be argued that the trainer of the Open Meeting was David Pipe* who now has 2 horses well capable of Grade 1 success in Great Endeavour and Grands Crus. Great Endeavour may have had anything drop right for him but he still won on the bride by 7 lengths and such was the nature of the improved ride given to him that you wouldn’t be dismissive of his chances of staying 3 miles at Newbury and a 10lbs rise seems very fair for what is an unexposed horse. Not much needs to be said about Grands Crus, who showed some devastating speed to land the 2m4f novice chase, apart from Godspeak and Godspeed. Being the son of Martin Pipe was always going to have it’s own positive and negative effects, but David has shown himself to be a classy operator and it’s just hoped he has the good fortune again this season.

5)      There’s nothing like sharing sport

Getting a bit cheesy here, All weekend, part of what made the open meeting such a corker was the fact that we had some top tweeps and a fantastic Facebook group to share it with. It’s easy to forget just how small the Vic Page would be without you guys, so thank you if you are reading this. 

India v West Indies - Second Test Preview

India had a few scares in their first test against the West Indies but they battered their way out of it in the end and they look worth heavy support to do the same in Kolkata tomorrow with that test under their belts.

What must also be remembered is that India’s second test record is light years ahead of their first test. Thanks to ESPN, you can learn that over the last decade, and excluding tours to Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, India have a 4-9 win-loss record in first Tests of away series, with the four wins coming in Pakistan, South Africa, New Zealand and West Indies. In second Tests, on the other hand, they've won six times and lost only four, which means their win-loss ratio in second Tests is almost three-and-a-half times times their first-Test ratio.

With wins in Kandy (2001), Port of Spain (2002), Adelaide (2003), Trent Bridge (2007), Galle (2008) and Durban (2010), India’s second test record far outstrips their first, which suggests they should be harder to beat than in at Delhi. Twice in the last three years, India have bounced back to win the second Test after losing the first - in Sri Lanka in 2008, and in South Africa last year.

India ended a run of six tests without success and should be looking to whitewash their opponents, with the old hands that are Sachin Tendulkar, VVS Laxman and Rahul Dravid, showing they still know how to get the job done when it matters.

The small worry could be that the roundsman has promised to deliver a pitch that will offer a bit more to the pace bowlers and that could turn in favour of West Indies, against Batsmen who are far more effective at playing spin than pace bowling. Memories of England will still be in the mind for value seekers but that was a far more effective pace unit than what the Windies can offer.

On the side, the big hitting MS Dohni (above left) – so underrated and also one of the few people to play well in England – can get his first runs of the series while outscoring Marlon Samuels, who made 15 and 0 in Kolakata, in the first innings – 5/6 is certainly decent about him doing so.

Advice

6.5 pts India (8/15 Stan James)

2 pts MS Dohni -0.5 v Marlon Samuels (5/6 Ladbrokes)