The Rugby World Cup is once again dominated by New Zealand,
who enter the tournament as favourites for the 7th tournament,
having not won one since the inaugural version in 1986, which was ironically
held in New Zealand (as it this year’s tournament) .
The All Blacks may well win this tournament by streets, but
there’s no value in backing them at 4/6 to do so, especially having to wait so
long for the outcome, when it’s likely that you can get it back with one
handicap punt over the likes of say, Canada.
Being led by the Machine that is Riche McCaw – who has
amassed an amazing 95 caps for his country and will pass 100 sometime
throughout the competition – along with the likes of Dan Carter, others will
feel different and one couldn’t blame the bookmakers for taking such a short
ante post proposition.
The reason why I’m not going in on New Zeland is the fact
that they’re not unbeatable – Morrne Steyn’s boot condemned them to an 18-5
defeat against South Africa while Australia rallied hard to beat them in their
last Tri –Nations match, the first time that the Aussies have won the
tournament in 10 years.
The latter did show that they can be got at though – During their
intense fast half against Australia they had missed 15 tackles by half time and
they are lucky that Kieran Read and Adam Thomson will miss just the start of
the All Blacks' Rugby World Cup campaign through injury but are set to remain
in the squad.
Australia are the second favourites and rightly so based on
a successful Tri Nations campaign in which their fighting spirit came to the
fore as they beat South Africa and New Zealand to seal the Tri Nations, thanks
in part to Head coach Robbie Deans who has his team well drilled and now a
tight knit group.
Led by Will Genia, who many rugby experts would call the world’s
best half back, and amply backed up by James O’Connor (yet to be picked a position
according to Sky but should play at fly half anyway) to rack up the points, it’s
easy to see why the Wallabies are clear second favourites – They probably offer
better value pound for pound anyway as a betting proposition than New Zealand.
They don’t offer quite as much value as reigning Champions
South Africa though, who are double the price and can offer just as much
talent, not least in playing ranks. But I’ll start with Coach Peter De Villers,
for the simple reason he’s a genius.
In his first season, he started slowly with only 2 Tri
Nations wins but produced sensational results in 2009, starting with a
closely-fought 2–1 series win over the touring Lions. They followed it up with
a convincing win in the Tri Nations, sweeping the All Blacks and losing only to
the Wallabies in Brisbane. In the process, they added the Freedom Cup (against
New Zealand) and the Mandela Challenge Plate (against Australia) to their
trophy cabinet. At the end there were some lesser results, such as their losses
to Leicester Tigers and Saracens, but that was at the end of a long year.
People will ask why I have just gone back a plucked their
2009 season but what it shows is their potential for results when their squad is
fully firing. Australia and New Zealand can boast the same but they aren’t 8/1
to win the thing and don’t boast De Villers at the helm.
The first black coach to take charge of the Springboks, De
Villers can be more enigmatic than inspired but he’s clearly got the know-how
and can bring a fully fit squad following on from his canny Tri – Nations selections.
He infuriated many by picking a second string team - more
than 20 candidates for World Cup places were left at home following a string of
injuries – but this simply shows he’s smart enough to know when to let it go –
While his worst gaffe, when defending South Africa flank Schalk Burger’s disgraceful
eye gouging of British and Irish Lion Luke Fitzgerald – Can be safely ignored
as an oversight of his is talk-now-think-later approach.
His seemingly ageing squad should have enough for this campaign
which means it doesn’t matter how old they are to us while their possible
passage is more than fair, with the Irish the most likely opponents in the Quarter
finals based on rankings. Beating New Zealand is not beyond the and neither is
beating Australia, based on their close shave in the Tri Nations.
Of the European hopes, most lie with England after a superb
6 Nations success and they have the pedigree in World Cups, having won in 2003
before turning around a third place finish in the 6 Nations into a runners up
spot. That too shows their potential to improve through a tournament – They were
beaten 36 – 0 in Paris by South Africa but turned that around to a 6-15 loss in
the final, which could have been loser for a try that wasn’t awarded early on
in the second half.
They should go well but another team that can’t be ignored
at these tournaments is France, who are one of few teams with the class to beat
New Zealand on any given day, having famously knocked them out in 1999 and 2007.
They can blow hot and cold, as has been shown on countless
occasions – Their 59 – 16 destruction at the hands of Australia is bad, but
that’s as bad that they get and just a year before they had competed a Grand
Slam.
Two warm up wins over an Ireland side seemingly in permanent
transition won’t prove much but I’ve seen more than enough in that game to suggest
that the French swagger is still there and they can cut any team in half if
they get going properly. Morgan Parra’s class should rack up plenty of points
while the early morning will be worth it just to watch Vincent Clerc’s deadly finishing.
Adding Imanol Harinordoquy and the likes of Thierry Dusatoir,
and you have a squad more the mercurial enough to challenge for this title and
at 16/1 generally (Unibet will go 17’s, Betfair 20’s) and that is more than
fair enough to compensate for any failures.
In case New Zealand are the real thing, back both our selections
without New Zealand at 5’s and 11/2 thanks to the odds on quotes being given
about Australia.
Advice
1 pt each/way South Africa (8/1 general)
1 pt each/way France (16/1 general, 20/1 Betfair)
1 pt South Africa w/o New Zealand (8/1 general)
1 pt France w/o New Zealand (16/1 general, 20/1 Betfair)
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