Premiership - 20th October 2012

Tottenham (6/4) v Chelsea (7/4)

Chelsea haven’t won in 6 visits to White Hart Lane but they come here as the most impressive team in the Premiership bar none so far and have already beaten Arsenal 2-1 on their travels, so look well worth supporting to stamp their title credentials once again. The new look midfield triangle of Mata, Silva and Oscar is not only a huge asset with the ball but a massive threat on the counter which makes them arguably the most dangerous team in the League. Andrea Villas Boas’s side have done well after a shaky start, but this is a test that’s going to be as tough as even Manchester United for them and Chelsea can stay unbeaten at the least.

Advice: 3 pts Chelsea draw no bet (21/20 Coral)

Fulham (5/6) v Aston Villa (7/2)

Is it wasn’t for the fact that Fulham won none of the last six Premier League meetings with Aston Villa, they would be one of the cornerstones of the coupon this weekend. Villa are still finding their feet under Paul Lambert’s new playing style so need time, and while they’ve been making plenty of opportunities, they’ve been worryingly open at the back. Over 2.5 goals looks the call.

Advice: 3 pts over 2.5 goals (5/6 Bet Victor)

Liverpool (2/5) v Reading (9)

Liverpool’s woes were significantly worsened when their one out and out striker in Fabio Borini was ruled out for six months, and they can’t be trusted in their current run of form at Anfield. Reading may be right at the basement of the league, but with the Reds misfiring on all levels, they may be able to avoid embarrassment at the least.

Advice: 1 pt Reading +1.5 on Asian H’Cap (17/20 Bet Victor)

Manchester United (3/10) v Stoke (11)

Manchester United’s win at Newcastle was their most impressive performance of the season so far and they should have more than enough to come through a home tie against Stoke, who have been resolute but failed to score in visits to Anfield and Stamford Bridge so far this year.

Advice: 1 pt Manchester United to win to nil (11/10 general)

Swansea (23/20) v Wigan (13/5)

Swansea’s flying start to the campaign has been taken down by poor defending and they look dodgy odds on favourites to beat a Wigan side more than capable of outperforming their odds in this kind of game. Roberto Martinez’s side have played much better than results suggest so far this season and can get a point at least out of their trip to Wales.

Advice: 1 pt Wigan +0.5 on Asian H’Cap (5/6 Bet Victor)

West Brom (17/4) v Man City (8/11)

Manchester City looked to have the form of last season back when beating Sunderland 3-0 but that game may have deceived, with the Mackems have offered little to nothing in terms of attack. West Brom have won all 4 of their home games in the League this season and are arguably the toughest trip City have made all season. With both teams having scored in all but one of City’s games this season, the 4/5 on that happening again makes appeal although over 2.5 goals also makes appeal.

Advice: 1 pt Over 2.5 goals (4/5 Coral)

West Ham (10/11) v Southampton (7/2)

Southampton have let in 20 goals this season and are winless on the road, while West Ham Fulham, QPR and Aston Villa so far this season, two of them at Upton Park. The Saints have the firepower to be competitive at this level but their defence has let them down on many occasions and they may be overpowered by the Hammers, who put up a strong fight at Arsenal before being outclassed.

Advice: 2 pts West Ham (10/11 general) 

Heineken Cup - 19th - 21st October 2012

Glasgow (9/4) v Ulster (1/2)

Glasgow’s powerful scrum and offloading game had Northampton in a lot of trouble despite the bonus point loss, and back on home turf you can expect them to give Ulster, who themselves had to use all their nous to gain a bonus point win over Castres, a mighty game. The away side have plenty in reverse though, and can edge this tie by the smallest of margins.

Advice: 2 pts Ulster by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan James)

Castres (4/6) v Northampton (8/5)

Castres were awful at Ravenhill last week but are a different animal at home, where they boast an exceptional record not only in their hometown but also at Toulouse’s Stade Ernest Wallon, where they beat Montpellier easily in the Top 14 playoff, and where Munster needed a last gasp drop goal to escape with a win last season. Northampton used their speed out wide well to gain a bonus point win last week but may be give a rude awakening this week, although whatever way this goes is expected to be very tight.

Advice: 1 pt Castres by 1-12 points (7/4 Stan James)

Llanelli Scarlets (15/8) v Leinster (3/5)

Scarlets were given a heavy thumping by Clermont but a trip to the Stade Marcel Michelin is one that usually ends in failure for even the best of European sides, and they were on top before the red carding of Morgan Stoddard. They can give Leinster, who only just sneaked past Exeter last week in a game that it’s easy to say should have gone the other way, a tight match although the extra experience and class of the holders can just see them through, along with the boost of having Rob Kearney and Gordon D’arcy back in the fold.

Advice: 1 pt Leinster to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Ladbrokes)

Treviso (8) v Toulouse (1/7)

Toulouse used a mixture of powerful forward graft and experience to deny Leicester a losing bonus point on Sunday (although better conditions would have also helped them) although the naivety of the visitors on that occasion did help them a lot. The way that Treviso pushed Ospreys towards the end on matchday one suggests that Toulouse will be given a very tough time if not on their game, so the 1-12 point winning margin is of interest, certainly more so than the 11 point headstart the Italians are getting. With several changes made, Timoci Matanavou is back into the starting XV and looks terrific value at 9/1 for first Tryscorer (I would also advise the 7/1 each/way with Bet365 valuable for ¼ of 4 places), given that he opened the scoring on three occasions in the Group stages last season and has eight tries in France already.

Advice: 1 pt Timonici Matanavou first Tryscorer (9/1 Skybet)

Saracens (4/11) v Racing Metro (9/2)

Saracens made a huge statement when pummelling an admittedly poor Edinburgh at Murrayfield and they should have more than enough to run out ready winners against Racing Metro, who had more than their fair share of fortune in beating Munster in France. A home handicap of just 6 points with Stan James has to be the call.

Advice: 3 pts Saracens -6 (10/11 Stan James)

Biarritz (1/100) v Zebre (33)

Zebre have lost every single game they’ve played this season and are likely to get a real hammering at Biarritz, who have the perfect game to build some momentum after being well beaten by Harlequins at the Stoop last week. A 30 point handicap should be just about in reach.

Advice: 1 pt Biarritz -28 Draw no bet handicap (4/5 general)

Connacht (3) v Harlequins (1/3)

Harlequins already know of the dangers that Connacht present, a 9-6 defeat having knocked them out of the competition last year, and the best value in this game might be a tight away win. Quins were probably beaten by the conditions as much as anything last year but Connacht still present a real threat which shouldn’t be ignored.

Advice: 1 pt Harlequins to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Bet365)

Exeter (5/2) v Clermont (5/11)

Clermont sit at the top of the pool with a bonus point win over Scarlets to thank for that but Morgan Stoddard’s red card gave them the game on a plate and they’ll need all of their might to get past Exeter Chiegs at Sandy Park. The Chiefs were exceptional at the RDS last week and deserved better than to lose, so it will be interesting to see if they can beat Clermont on the road, where they’re usally at their weakest.  Vern Cotter’s men lost by 1-5 points on both their trips to elite clubs last year, although should they turn up in the form that saw them belt Saracens 22-3 last year, then Exeter will be in serious trouble. This looks best avoided

Advice: No bet, consider the 1-5 and especially 1-12 winning margins for either side

Cardiff (5/2) v Toulon (4/11)

Everything had been going swimmingly for Cardiff until a 20 point start turn from Danny Cipriani robbed them of a previous victory at Sale, having led by 15 points. Such ineptness is extremely worrying with the visit of Toulon, who have been beaten only by Toulouse this year and have scored 150 points on the road. A 6 point handicap looks generous.

Advice: 3 pts Toulon -6 (10/11 Paddy Power, Stan James)

Munster (1/8) v Edinburgh (8)

Edinbrugh were blessed with a soft pool last year in hindsight despite their great run to the semi-finals, and while Saracens were excellent in their win up in Scotland, they were disastrously poor and got dominated at the breakdown and in defence, areas Munster traditionally dominate. They were woeful against Racing Metro but had the pitch to blame for Racing’s only try and Conor Murray for the late penalty. Back on home turf, they should be capable of giving Edinbrugh a good beating.

Advice: 1 pt Munster -13 (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Leicester (1/3) v Ospreys (3)

Leicester were poor against Toulouse in week one, for all that the score is a harsh reflection of how the game went – the Tigers were right in it for long periods of the game and would most likely have taken at least a point from the affair had Ben Youngs went for the posts instead of the tap and go. Ospreys had to push and push hard to get their bonus point against Treviso but sealed it late in commendable style and can give Leicester a good game, for all that they should be beaten.

Advice: 2 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)

Montpellier (1/7) v Sale (6)

Sale should have plenty of confidence after their last gaps win over Cardiff, but a trip to Montpellier may well bring them back down to earth with a bang. Montpellier beat Clermont in week two of the Top 14 and have won three of their 4 home games so far this season. They were admittedly awful in Europe last year but showed enough at Toulon to think they can be a tough test for any side in this Pool.

Advice: 1 pt Montpellier -11 (4/5 general) 

Heineken Cup 2012/13 - Top Tryscorer

Finding the top try scorer is always one of the trickiest parts of betting in the Heineken Cup and this season’s tournament being as well contested as ever, there are an outstanding list of candidates who could be considered strong contenders for the list. Trying to narrow one down is very difficult but the winners of this ward since 2006/07 have all had one thing in common; They either played for the finalists, or had the lowest ranked team (usually an Italian newcomer) during the pool stages. Predicting the finalists is never easy and matter of opinion, although it will be no surprise to see Leinster make yet another showpiece appearance.  The Irishmen – who should improve a lot on their opening performance when pushed all the way by Exeter Chiefs – have only Isa Nacewa at 50/1 or less, something that reflects their ‘pool of death’ with Clermont, Ospreys and Exeter Chiefs. Nacewa’s dynamism does make him a tempting proposition even at that price, although the incredible difficulty of his pool and the injuries Leinster currently carry make it hard to recommend him.

Clermont will have to deal with the same problem, but having backed them to go to the final it seems silly not to get at least one of their backline onside. With so much choices, anyone of the 5 outside backs could be considered, but 66/1 about Wesley Fofana (below) can’t be ignored. France’s biggest threat by far during the 6 Nations, until being moved onto the win for their last match against Wales, Fofana was close to the heart of everything that Clermont did last season and in physical games, is sure to be one of the bigger threats that the Frenchmen have in trying to break down the Scarlets, Leinster, and Chiefs though the middle of the park. Centres have done well in this competition before – Brian O’Driscoll once top scored in this competition with 5 tries – so he seems to be a bet to nothing.

 

Naipolioni Nalaga’s return to Clermont this season gives an already immense backline even more potential strength in the backs and while that’s reflected in a price of just 14/1, he and Sivaitatu are hard to separate. Nalaga had already scored 3 tries in the Top 14 though, and as such gets a tight vote, although either would be a big runner.

Toulon don’t have an absolute banker in their group for a try romp, but they’ve scored 248 points so far in the Top 14 and can be expected to win all of their games in Pool 6, thus securing a home ranking at the end of the pool stages. Matt Giteau has the most tries of anyone from the club so far, but Delon Armitage shined against Montpellier with his two tries and should get plenty of opportunities both home and away, so makes a lot of appeal seeing as he may well go deep into the competition.

And last but not least, Harlequins Mike Brown, who may not have got in on the fun against Birratiz at the Stoop on Matchday one, but does get a double header against debutants Zebre, has to be included. A romp against a small side has often helped the top Heineken Cup Tryscorer – Timonici Mantanavou got two against Connacht last year, and Northampton Saint’s Paul Diggin helped himself to 4 in a 37-0 rout of Edinburgh to seal his title, and Tommy Bowe got to help himself to two in a rout of Vidana – and Mike Brown’s 7 tries in the Premiership last season confirms his finishing prowess, so he seems to be a no brainer at 50/1. Alex Cuthbert may already have three tries to his name, and as such is an understandable favourite, but looks far too short at just 9/2 with so many games left.  Timonici Matanavou (above) may be in one of the pools of death, but at the least scored an incredible eight tries in this competition last year and can’t be as big as 20/1 on that form. He may have sat out the first game against Leicester but bagged 5 tries against English opposition last year and leads the Top 14 tryscoring charts.

Advice

1 pt Dylan Armitage (16/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Mike Brown (50/1 general)

1 pt Wesley Fofana (66/1 general)

1 pt Naipolioni Nalaga (14/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Timonici Matanavou (20/1 Paddy Power)

Heineken Cup - 13th October 2012

Northampton (1/5) v Glasgow (8)

Two of Europe’s most in form sides meet in what’s more of a headline counter than many would realise. Given that Glasgow have never beaten an English team on the road a large handicap in the mid-teens is understandable, but Gregor Townsend’s side have been one of the most impressive pacesetters in the Pro 12, and wins at Cardiff and Swansea shows that last season’s semi-finalists mustn’t’ be underestimated. Northampton lead the Premiership and deservedly so, but may be pushed harder than expected in what could be a physical battle which the visitors have prepared for - Glasgow have gone for a 6/2 forward/back split on the bench.

Advice: 1 pt Northampton to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general)

Sale (8/11) v Cardiff (6/4)

Winless in six, Sale lie bottom of the Premiership, having conceded 110 more points than they’ve scored so far, yet start 8/11 favourites presumably based upon the home advantage that they have. Cardiff may have stuttered so far but were impressive in this competition last year, winning 5 out of their 6 pool matches barring a loss at Edinbrugh, and have enough about them to take advantage of the hosts’ woes and grind out a win.

Advice: 1 pt Cardiff to win by 1-12 points (21/10 Bwin)   

Toulouse (4/9) v Leicester (2)

Arguably the headline clash of the first weekend, with last season’s Top 14 Champions taking on the Premiership runners up. Toulouse were seen at their most vulnerable on more than one occasion last season, losing to both their English opponents in the pool and being lucky to sneak through to the quarters. Leicester are as tough, if not tougher than both those opponents and should give Toulouse a real game today, although any serious support is putt off by the fact they’ve failed to win their two toughest games in the Premiership this season. Toulouse can win by 1-12 but they’ll need to have their wits about them.

Advice: 2 pts Toulouse to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)

Toulon (1/10) v Montpellier (10)

Toulon have come a long way in Europe in a short space of time and look ready to launch a serious challenge on the Heineken Cup with a squad list that’s right up there with the best. Matt Giteau, Carl Hayman, Delon Armitage, Andrew Sheridan, Bakkies Botha and Chris Masoe all start along with the combination of Michalak and Wilkinson at 9 and 10, which gives even more creativity to last season’s Top 14 runners up following the arrivals of the Arimtage brothers in the backrow. Toulon have passed at least 29 points in their last 6 matches and look value to do so again facing a Montpellier side that they’ve beaten 32-25 already away from home.

Advice: 4 pts Montpellier to score 29 or more points (4/5 Blue Sq) 

Korean Grand Prix 2012

It’s only been two races, but a lot has elapsed since we last covered F1 here. Fernando Alonso’s handy gap has tuned into a lead that on the face of things seems purely mathematical going by the pace that the Red Bulls have showed in the last two races, especially at Suzuka last weekend where Sebastian Vettel had a leisurely 15 seconds in hand at the end and Mark Webber managed to sneak a point from a first lap accident that should have put him out of the race.

One week on in Korea and that seems to be the same case once again, with the Red Bulls not only going 1-2 in FP2 but also dominating qualifying, and a front row forecast of Vettel and Webber is 6/4 going into tomorrow’s race. Given how they had 0.3 seconds in hand and have and an excellent record around tracks with long, sweeping corners – of which Korea contains plenty - then that must be tempting.

Sebastian Vettel – who was held up in his flying lap and lost out on pole by just a tenth of a second – is a strong favourite for a hat trick of wins and he looks a worthy one, considering that he has the skills to beat his team mate into the first corner and hold a lead, but also considering a possible team tactics move. 10/11 is fair enough considering but nothing’s guaranteed in these races and it’s another driver that has our interest.

Jenson Button may well be at the forefront of this championship had it not been for the long list of pitstop mistakes that blighted his early season charge when the McLaren was by some way the quickest car on the circuit, but a second half revival thanks to some very smart upgrades has seen him cat the forefront of the grid in nearly all the recent races and he looks value for a top 6 finish. Button starts only 11^th but was held up on his final qualifying lap of Q2 and judged on the third fastest lap of Lewis Hamilton and his own pace (his qualifying form since September reads 6-4-1-2-4-8), he would have been there or thereabouts near the front row, and there’s a feeling that he’s been unfairly ignored in the aftermath of Vettel’s searing pace over the last two days.

Button has always been a raceday specialist over a qualifying one and recorded the fastest high fuel lap in FP3, coming second only to Alonso on a lap by lap average (admittedly he did only 13 over the session), so we know that he has some of the best race pace on the grid, and this wouldn’t be the first time that he’s recovered a poor grid postion for a good result, having turned 6^th into second at Hockenheim and jumped four places from his eighth place on the grid in Suzuka (where he could easily have caught Kobayashi for third late on).

Since Hockenheim (the first GP for Mclaren’s updated car) he has form figures of 2-6-1-ret-2-4, even more impressive when you consider he looked booked for second in Monza before retirement, and while the initial value has gone out of his odds for a top 6 finish, 5/4 is still more than backable, along with the 10/11 on him winning Bet Victor’s Group B, which requires him to beat both Mercedes and Force India’s Nico Hulkenberg, something he’s more than capable of based on not only race pace but also driving ability. Either is good but we’ll split a hefty stake accordingly based on the perceived difficulty of the task at hand, and to win Group C Button may not even have to make the Top 6 based on grid spots, so that’ll get the biggest portion of our stake.

Advice

6 pts Jenson Button to win Bet Victor’s Group C (10/11)

3 pts Jenson Button Top 6 finish (5/4 general) 

Heineken Cup 2012/13 - Top pointscorer

Last year Leinster’s Johnny Sexton saved us when pipping Munster’s Ronan O’Gara for the top pointscorer honours by a single point and having not backed Leinster for the title or even their pool this time, we just have to side with the brilliant fly – half once again. Known for his superb talent both striking and using the ball, Sexton has won the title both times Leinster have done so and if they’re to do so again, he’s sure to be at the heart of everything that they do. Having such a tough pool may be off putting but a heavy forward duel with Clermont (especially in France) should bring his talents to the fore before the pool stages even finish, and we all know the role that goalkickers play in the latter stages.

A heavy forward pack is the backbone of any players’ chances in this tournament so it’s no surprise to see that Johnny Wilkinson has been put in as joint favourite with Sexton. Touloun have the easiest pool of them all too, but this has been reflected in the fact that we’ve backed them for their pool and the tournament, so he can be left alone with ease.

With Morgan Parra and Brock James potentially taking points away from eachother for Clermont (although James looks very big at 25/1) and Luke McAllister’s Toulouse having a tough pool task, better value seems to lie with two players who are the heartbeat of their side’s European chances. Ronan O’Gara* is the leading points scorer of all time in this competition and was pipped to the post by Sexton despite his side going out at the quarter finals. With Munster having a pool they’re more than capable of winning, he looks like generous value at 12/1 for the four places.

The term ‘forward dominated side applies more to none other than Saracens, and if they’re to go far them one would have to assume that Charlie Hodgson or Owen Farrell would be at the heart of things. Farrell is very much the future of the club but Hodgson has been given the games of late and as such gets the vore at a giant price. 

Advice

4 pts Jonathan Sexton top Tryscorer (7/2 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Charlie Hodgson (25/1 Paddy Power) 

Heineken Cup - 13th October 2012

Edinburgh (2) v Saracens (4/7)

One of the tightest pools of the completion kicks off with what has the potential to be a real nail biter as last year’s semi-finalists take on last year’s quarter finalists at Murrayfield. Edinburgh gave it their all to make the semi-finals last year and lying down in eighth this year, they look to be doing the same thing once again with the best available squad picked by Michael Bradley in a bid for success - Tom Brown and Richie Rees return to start at full-back and scrum-half while the Scottish powered backline that took them so far last season starts – but last year’s success came against opponents who were far more open than Saracens are ever likely to be and they can use their giant pack to smother the game and eke out a win by 1—12. The Sarries have won half of their last 6 games by the minimum winning margin and have let in just 81 points over the duration of the Premiership season.

Advice: 2 pts Saracens to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)

Racing Metro (19/20) v Munster (19/20)

Racing Metro won just one game in this competition last season – losing all 3 games at home – and they look vulnerable to Munster without their Argentinean contingent. Munster have been in indifferent form but have lost no caste in their three away defeats so far and can edge this tie with their superior quality.

Advice: 2 pts Munster to win by 1-12 points (9/5 Bolyesports, Paddy Power)

Zebre (15/8) v Connacht (4/7)

Newly formed Zebre are still winless in the Pro12 and it beggars belief to see them as short as 15/8 and receiving just 4 points from Connacht, who really held their own last season both home and away and beat the Italians 30-17 when they last met on this turf. A 3 point head start with Stan James seems to be an absolute gift.

Advice: 4 pts Connacht -4 (10/11 Stan James)

Clermont (1/7) v Scarlets (11)

Outright fancies Clermont should make a bold bid for the title this season and we’ll find out a lot about them when they take on a Scarlets side brimming with the best young Welsh talent and confidence from a blistering start in the Pro12 – they have more points than anyone so far in the tournament. Their superb backline should get the job done, although any complacency will be severely punished by the likes of Morgan Stoddart, George North, Jonathan Davies, Scott Williams and Rhys Priestland, which all points to a high scoring game.

Advice: 1 pt 45 points or more (5/6 Ladbrokes)

Leinster (1/12) v Exeter Chiefs (12)

Exeter Chief’s remarkable rise though the Premiership has been rewarded richly with a trip to Leinster in their opening fixtures. Expect Rob Baxter’s side to give a good account of themselves but their three losses have come away in the Premiership this season so the 16 point handicap isn’t hard to contest, and total pints once again looks to be the best bet.

Advice: 1 pt 43 points or more (5/6 Paddy Power)

Harlequins (1/3) v Biarritz (4)

This could be one of the decisive clashes of the pool stages, with Connacht and Zebre miles behind these two on paper, and it’s Harlequins who are in much better shape coming into this contest. Biarritz lost all three of their matches away in this competition last season and have lost their last four on the bounce in France while Quins (admittedly having lost their last two) come here with a full strength side.

Advice: 2 pts Quins -7 (4/5 Blue Sq)

Heineken Cup Preview 2012-13

Pool 1: Edinburgh, Munster, Racing Métro, Saracens

This isn’t even the strongest pool on rankings but it’s arguably the most competitive – any one of the four could be considered well capable of taking top spot. Munster may have gone out at the quarter finals last season but they had won all 6 of their pool games beforehand, including a spectacular 51-36 thrashing of Northampton Saints. They come into this campaign with some indifferent form, but those three defeats have all come to the Pro 12’s elite on the road (Ulster, Leinster, Ospreys).Saracens are joint favourites in the betting and should present an obdurate challenge although this is much harder than facing an in and out Biarritz side and will take a superhuman effort to beat Munster at Ravenhill. Edinbrugh are more than good enough if showing up on their day as their semi-final run last season shows, although they’ve won just twice so far and have a much harder task than last year. Racing Metro won just one game and lost their three matches at home last season so look vulnerable anyway despite an arguable case for improvement.

Advice: 2 pts Munster (7/4 Bet Victor)

Pool 2: Treviso, Leicester, Ospreys, Toulouse

Arguably the group of death with Top 14 Champions and 4 time winners Toulouse, Premiership regular season winners Leicester, and last season’s Pro 12 winners Ospreys, while the supposed ‘whipping boys’  Treviso are arguably the strongest minows in the tournament, so this is one of the toughest groups of the lot. - Toulouse haven’t been beaten in the pools since the 2008-09 season but look vulnerable here based on their performance from last year when Harlequins and Gloucester beat them fair and square last year. Leicester, traditionally the strongest of the English sides on a game to game basis and overall in the competition, are tempting at 6/5 to make the quarter finals (either a winner or a best runners up spot will do it), although you wouldn’t want to count out Ospreys even though they’ve made a poor start to the Pro 12 season. The value might be with Leicester to qualify if they can take a bonus point off Toulouse on Sunday, which happened on two occasions with English sides last season.

Advice: 1 pt Leicester to qualify (6/5 Ladbrokes)

Pool 3: Biarritz, Connacht, Harlequins, Zebre

This looks like a straight toss between Harlequins and Biarritz, with the Englishmen making far more appeal to seal a quarter final place ahead of their French counterparts. Quins should have beaten Toulouse to the quarters last season but fell to Connacht in the most awful conditions. Biarritz have been showing the same poor form that they were last season when they finished ninth and flirtired with relgation in the Top 14. Lying eighth, they seem to be struggling once again,, enough to give Quins the vote.

Advice: 3 pts Harlequins (4/5 general)

Pool 4: Castres, Glasgow, Northampton, Ulster

Respective leaders and the last two beaten finalists  Northampton and Ulster are hard to split but given the superior European pedigree of the Irishmen, Ulster are a must bet at slightly bigger prices than Northampton, who were twice beaten by rivals Munster at this stage last season. With 5 wins from 5 and an impeccable home record – Clermont, Stade Francais and Leicester have been beaten here in the past two seasons – the Irishmen look to be a top bet, with Glasgow and Castres not in the same class.

Advice: 4 pts Ulster (6/4 general)

Pool 5: Clermont Auvergne, Exeter, Leinster, Scarlets

Plenty will be tempted by the 8/11 about Leinster given their amazing record but Clermont are one of the few sides in Europe that can hope to beat them and can make it into the latter stages through either winning or coming runner up in the Pool. Leinster lead 5-1 on head to head match stats but the points total between the two in those 5 games reads 120-100 & 9-7 in points and tries scored, so this isn’t guaranteed for either side. Exeter have improved hugely and can’t be dismissed easily, while Scarelt too are no pushovers, but the December double headers should decide this and be a thing of beauty. Evens about Clermont going through to the quarters seems like too generous a price given that we think they can win the tournament, and while there’s the risk of them falling at the first hurdle, they can just as easily beat Leinster.

Advice: 10 pts Clermont to qualify (evs Ladbrokes)

Pool 6: Cardiff Blues, Montpellier, Sale, Toulon

Anything less than a walkover for Toulon would be a major surprise and the 4/7 on them with Bwin is too generous. They have one of the strongest sides in their history this season and the big names seem to be gellling just fine based on their awesome start to the Top 14, where they beat Montpellier on the road. Cardiff aren’t the same side that snuck through an easy pool last year with several experience players leaving, and Sale have more pressing issues lying at the bottom of the Premiership.

Advice: 6 pts Toulon (4/7 Bwin) 

Heineken Cup - 12th October 2012

Last season’s Heineken Cup runners up Ulster start this year’s campaign against Castres, and the home side are just 1/6 to get their campaign off to a flying start. That’s more than understandable given the home side’s pedigree – even when looking at the likes of Ravenhill legend and South Africa back rower Peidrie Wanneburg – and the fact that they’ve beaten Clermont Auvergne and Leciester here in the past two seasons.

The visitors have just three wins from 25 outings on  the road but have been beaten only one by double figures this season, when Top 14 pacesetters Toulon beat them 33-12. Ulster are of a similarly high standard but may grind things out by just the 1-12 points this evening and accept the winning start.

Ospreys should beat Treviso but the handicap is hard to judge against a side which can be incredibly obdurate when they want to be. 

Advice

1 pt Ulster to win by 1-12 points (3/2 Betfred, 15/8 Ladbrokes)

Heineken Cup Preview 2012/13

They say that good things come to those who wait and Clermont – who have probably had more than enough of waiting for a first Heineken Cup title – can land it in their 101^st year to make it a truly special anniversary for the small town. The perennial bridesmaids have slowly but surely began to turn promise and talent into actual success, breaking a straight run of three runners up finishes in the Top 14 when beating Clermont in the title, having found extra reserves to turn over Toulon in the semi-final after extra time, and their record in Europe has also improved sharply over the last five years.

Challenge Cup winners in 2007, Clermont were beaten Challenge Cup semi-finalists two years ago when unlucky enough to draw Leinster in the pool stages but reached the semi-finalist last year only to be so cruelly denied 19-15 by the three time winners and favourites for a fourth title this year in one of the great European contests. That defeat was fair and square but the intense game that Leinster received (had it not been for Wesley Fofana’s try being misgrounded then it may well have been them who went onto beat Ulster) shows Clermont’s power and poise on the biggest stages in Europe. Beaten semi-finalists by a total of just 7 points on two occasions when looking unstoppable last year, they’ve replaced leaving giants Lionel Faure and Alexandre Audebert with like for like replacements in Damien Couhly and Benson Stanley, although the key addition may well be Napolioni Nalaga, who returns after a stint with the Western Force in Super Rugby. It was upon the back of his tries that Clermont went to the top 14 title in 2010 (that being the last of four consecutive finals) and his return after a conspicuous absence is a huge boost to a side already chock full of talent.

Wesley Fofana provides verve and power in equal measure for the
improving and dangerous Clermont

Their star studded back division of Aurelien Rougerie, Morgan Parra, Wesley Fofana and Julien Malzieu - along with Welsh star Lee Byrne and Sitiveni Sivivatu is amongst the strongest in Europe. Parra is one of the finest recent fly halves in the game, Rougerie arguably already has the same status, Fofana was the most impressive French player by a mile in last year’s 6 Nations until he got moved out onto the wing for their practically unwinnable final game against Wales and Juilen Mazileu has a record of record of 12 tries from just 29 European appearances. This doesn’t even take into account the fine and experienced David Skrela, who needs just 17 points to become only the seventh player to reach Europe’s 500 point club.

Lee Bryne has recovered some of the form which had seen him talked about as one of the best full backs in the world before injuries curtailed his run with the National side – his single handed destruction of Saracens remains one of the finest performances of last year’s competition. Sitiveni Sivivatu is just one of many class finishers in the side, while John Marcel Boutttin is no slack finisher either.  

Their forward line has enough grunt to put pressure on any pack in Europe – Leinster had never been under so much pressure in a knockout situation last year – and the Frenchmen are the only side who have even beaten Leinster in 18 games through the competition. A December double pool header between the two is sure to be one of the moments of the tournament and does give the danger of an away draw, but Clermont are a much improved outfit to the one that lost three quarter finals away from home in recent years (one when going down by just a point to Leinster) and destroyed Saracens at Vicarage Road last year, so it’s not the end of the world if they can’t top their own pool. At 8/1 they look a fantastic outright bet and 

Reigning champions Leinster are obvious favourites and extremely tempting at 4/1 for a side that have lost just once in their last 18 games in this competition. They’ve ‘been there, done it and got the T-Shirt’ to say and 4/1 could begin to look very large approaching the latter stages of the tournament.  

As the old adage goes, ‘Don’t fix it if it aint broke’ and nothing’s changed at Joe Schmidt’s ledger side, so they once again have to be the favourite with a settled squad. At the top of the list is Jonathan Sexton – the best fly half in the competition - while the near ageless Brian O’Driscoll continues to run the show at centre alongside his partner in crime Gordon D’Arcy to create the most deadly gameline passing partnership in Europe, while Rob Kearney is a lock for Lions fullback based on the form that he’s shown in Europe over the past three years.

Isa Nacewa’s explosive talent brought a new dimension to the Irishmen last season while the grunt of the Irish pack which can stop the best in the world when they get it right on the day (see their epic win over Australia in the Rugby World Cup including Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip and Mike Ross, has always proved vital on the road (not forgetting Richard Strauss) Any side that can bring in Cronin and Van Der Merwe off the bench must have some squad and it’s only in the technical sense that we’re betting against Leinster retaining it for a third straight title.

Toulouse are still the most successful side in the history of European Rugby and it would be foolish to forget them, for all that the tide in French Rugby in terms of squad depth seems to have turned towards other big names in the Top 14. There have been rumours of Guy Noves’s side somehow losing their touch but only Clermont could keep touch with them last season and they showed all of their dogged class and experience once again to edge the Top 14 final, making it two straight wins in a row at home.

They’re good enough to win this if they want to and deserve significant respect, although their own group is a very tough one with both Leicester and Ospreys and last year was their poorest Europen campaign since winning the title in 2010. Had Harlequins not fumbled several chances in already horrendous conditions at Connaught, then they wouldn’t have made the quarter finals and they surged ahead against Edinburgh only when they had two extra men on the field, only to be reeled in and end up deserved losers. With Leicester and Ospreys more than capable of topping them on their off days on the road, and Treviso also not a pushover, they look rickety 6/1 outright shots.

Look to Toulon, beaten by just 6 points in the Top 14 and Challenge Cup finals of last year, for a second chance of a French winner. Relative maidens on the European stage – this will be just their second Heineken Cup appearance – Toulon have a very strong European pedigree for such novices. They’ve twice finished runners up in the Challenge Cup and their only appearance in the Heineken Cup saw them beat Munster to the top of their pool, so clearly know what it takes on the biggest stage of them all.

Johnny Wilkinson has players of equal measure around him
to spear a strong Heineken Cup challenge 

Those Toulon sides are nowhere near as strong at the current outfit. Mourad Boudjellal’s desire for the Bouclier de Brennus knows no bounds and has led to a galacticos style spending spree to bring his side upto speed. Chris Masoe Nicolas Durand, Freddy Michalak, Maxime Mermoz, Andrew Sheridan, Gethin Jenkins, Guy and Delon Armitage are all players of the highest quality to complement a side which had enough to beat Clermont on their way to the final of the French Top 14, while the creative side of the club has been taken to a new dimension on paper with the addition of a rejuvenated Federik Michalak from the Sharks to give real strength in depth to the playmaking role that has been so crucial in Europe of late.

Johnny Wilkinson has proven that he’s still got what it takes to decide big games – his winning drop goal in last season’s Challenge Cup semi-final is typical Wilkinson – and Matt Hayman is also well upto the highest standard. It’s frankly scary when you consider that this is a side that already boasted names such as Bastareud (who should provide a special partnership with Maxime Mermoz at centre), Botha, Bruno, (JM) Fernandez Lobbe, Shaw, Masoe and Van Niekerk as well.  The strength in a pack that may well consist of Andrew Sheridan, Gethin Jenkins, Bakkies Botha and Simon Shaw is frightening and with the kickers to put away the chances and creatively to open the best of Europe, Toulon need serious respecting.

Of the others, Harlequins head  a weak looking English challenge on paper although they were unlucky not to top Toulouse last year after finding the most horrendous conditions in their crunch encounter with Connacht, having beaten the French Champions on their own turf. A best of two encounter with Biarritz should decide things although the Challenge Cup winners are in poorer shape this season than last and head to the Stoop a vulnerable side. That said, outright prices of 12’s done like much value on paper. Munster have twice won this competition recently and still have a strong record but far more value can be found in counterparts Ulster, who were well beaten finalists last year but still did themselves proud – especially when beating them convcingly on their and should go close once again if beating Northampton to their pool – something you sense they’re eminently capable of given their home record in Europe and how close they pushed Clermont in the Pools last year.

Leicester are potentially interesting but have fallen into a Group of death once again, and last season’s Pro 12 winners Ospreys must be respected but are hard to trust ahead of the big two in their group, let alone going all the way. Last but not least, it’s amazing to see Edinburgh at 200/1 given their exploits last year, although those who are tempted by that price should take the 8/1 they win their pool, although it’s hard to see them turning over Munster at Ravenhill – which has to be done to win the Group.

Advice

6 pts Clermont (8/1 general)

2 pts Toulon (7/1 general)

2 pts Clermont to reach final (5/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes)

Amlin Cup Preview 2012/13

European Rugby returns in style tomorrow with the Heineken Cup but for those who can’t wait the Challenge Cup provides something to keep us ticking over. Rugby’s Europa League, the Cup basically compromises Europe’s second tier of Rugby sides and with various league targets – qualification for the Heineken Cup is by no means easy unless you’re n the Magners League but there are plenty of places for those good enough – and the one question that you have to ask when finding the winner is how seriously your picks will take it. The likes of Bath, Gloucester, Perpignan, and Stade Francais (the latter of which look to be the best value at 8/1 ) especially have the potential to win this competition, but the best bet may be to get all the dropouts from the Heineken Cup onside.

 

Two of the last three winners have been Heineken Cup dropouts and this year’s pool structure makes 13/8 especially appealing when considering not only the class of some of the potential dropouts, but also how keen some of the clubs in the pool stage from the start may or may not be – the top four in the betting are all capable of going for no matter what but they would be vulnerable if fielding second string teams, and the all-important draw too can change things at the drop of a hat.

With the especially cut throat pools for this year’s Heineken Cup, we could easily see a top class side dropping down. Frenchmen and last year’s Champions Biarritz and Cardiff have dropped down, and with Leinster and Clermont (neither of whom should drop out, although nothing is impossible with those two against eachother) in the same pool, no top seed will be completely safe  - there are two best runners’ up spots. One of Leicester or Toulouse could well drop out, Harlequins and Biarritz lock horns in Pool 3, while Saracens (up against a Munster side with an impeccable record in the Heineken Cup) and Northampton (similarly vulnerable to last year’s finalists and Pro 12 leaders Munster) are just two of the names that could drop down, and all would have a big chance with the incentive at the quarter final stage of a place in the Heineken Cup for next season a much more lucrative promotion than now, making the 13/8 offered on a Henieken Cup team dropping down look like a superb bet.

Of the teams involved now, Stade Francais look the best bet having gone close in the last two seasons. Losers of a final and semi-final by just 3 points in total over the last two years, they can count themselves unlucky not to have won both, having taken full control during the second half of their final against Quins only to let in a late try, while they faced an almighty task travelling to Toulon on the road only to lose out to a Johnny Wilkinson drop goal. They’ve got enough pedigree and class to go very deep in this competition and are 8/1 with Hills, meaning a win for them or a Heineken Cup side guarantees a profit.

Advice

6 pts Any Heineken Cup team to win (13/8 Betfred)

1 pt Stade Francais (8/1 Hills) 

Rugby Championship - Argentina v Australia

Argentina’s inclusion in the inaugural Rugby Championship has been one of the highlights of the whole tournament and they can cap off a fine showing with a well-deserved win against Australia to end their inaugural campaign.

The Pumas had initially looked as if they would be very much the poor relation when being well beaten by South Africa but have improved with performance on all but one occasion since, and their thrashing at the hands of New Zealand is more than forgivable when you compare the gulf between not just the All Blacks and most sides but the gulf between the All Blacks and Australia especially.

New Zealand were behind early but were enable by a masterclass of total rugby driven by Kieran Read, Dan Carter, Aaron Smith, players who are in a different class to anything that Australia can offer at the moment. It’s also worth noting that New Zealand’s wingers are on a different level to anything the Wallabies can offer. Robbie Deans’ side got knocked out of the World Cup in the semis by the All Blacks but their fortunes couldn’t have been any different since then with injuries pushing the Wallabies on a massive slide since then, while Steve Hansen’s side just wrapped up a clean sweep with a convincing victory at South Africa.

Since the end of the Rugby World Cup, Deans has lost James O'Connor, James Horwill, Wycliff Palu, David Pocock, Lachlan Turner, Stephen Moore, Will Genia, Scott Higginbotham, Sekope Kepu and Christian Lealiifano to injury – the spine of the side that had been impressing so many before the World Cup when beating  the All Blacks 25-20. Without them Australia have been far less effective and their performance has waned with every single game, the low point being a 31-8 thrashing at the hands of South Africa last week where only the hosts profligacy infront of goal prevented it from being a near 50 point rout.

They’re coming her in very poor shape,  have their weakest squad yet, and barely beat the Argentinans on home soil, so back the hosts to cap off a fine introduction to life back in the test sphere if they can get off to the fast start they’re so often famed for – Los Pumas have scored the first try in their last 4 games and Australia have failed to score in the first quarter, as well as going in down at the break to both South Africa and New Zealand both home and away. With Argentina getting outscored by an average of 7 points in the second half, it might pay to cover your back with the 7/1 on the Argentina/Australia half time full time result. Those looking for the first Tryscorer should go for the outgoing legend Rodrigo Roncero (pictured) at a giant 66/1 – he notched first against New Zealand – or Gonzalo Camacho, who is the outstanding winger in the side, at 14/1.

Advice:

3 pts Argentina to win 1^st half (11/10 Skybet)

2 pts Argentina (10/11 general)

1 pt Argentina/Australia (7/1 Ladbrokes) 

Rugby Championship - South Africa v New Zealand

New Zealand’s domination of the inagural Rugby Championship has been majestic and they can complete a clean sweep with victory in South Africa today. Steve Hansen’s side came out of the World Cup without stalwart Graham Henry but have gone from strength to strength since and have underlined their status as the dominant force in world rugby with their incredible winning streak – they’re just two away from the world record held by Lithuania of 19.

South Africa have found themselves in a transitional state over the past few months with the enigmatic Peter De Villers leaving while much of the great engine room that had beaten the British and Irish Lions also said their last goodbye’s. Henke Meyer’s brief reign has been anything but uneventful, with several mini sagas and missed chances making for some rather disillusioned fans for whom last week’s comprehensive win over Australia came not a moment too soon.

That had followed a quite incredible game against New Zealand where they let two practical tries off the hook through poor passing and an astonishing 20 points off the tee through goal kicking, and back on home turf there should be no reason why the Boks’ can’t give Steve Hansen’s side a stiff test at the very least.

For all that New Zealand put 54 past Argentina last week, it’s worth remembering that South Africa would have scored yet more if they hadn’t missed 6 out of 9 attempts on goal and while Steve Hansen has sent out a big message by keeping the majority of his side that thrashed Argentina last Saturday night but the Boks should have won in Dundenin and will be highly motivated to turn around those scores. New Zealand can win, but the 1-12 point winning margin looks much the best way to go if you’re supporting them today.

Advice

1 pt New Zealand to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general)